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Congress Must Worry About Its Massive Vote Base Migrating to BJP in Tripura

M.K. Venu
Mar 05, 2018
The Congress lost 96% of its vote base in the recent state elections.

The Congress lost 96% of its vote base in the recent state elections.

BJP supporters smear colours on each other to celebrate BJP’s win in Agartala on Saturday. Credit: PTI

The most unusual, indeed unprecedented, occurrence in the Tripura elections is the manner in which the Congress vote share has fallen from 36% in 2013 to about 1.4% now. A vote base erosion of this magnitude has not been seen in recent decades for any political party, leave alone the Congress. Voter bases normally do not shrink or disappear so dramatically even when a political party loses an election badly. There is a certain minimum voter stickiness even in a big defeat. In this case, the Congress lost 96% of its vote base – and this shifted entirely to the BJP which grew from virtually nothing to 43% vote share in just one election. Nearly 80% of BJP’s new vote base has come directly from the Congress.

The Congress party is also quite stunned at the sheer scale of its vote base shift to the BJP. What explains this phenomenon? Even during the pro-Aam Aadmi Party electoral tsunami in Delhi, the Congress had retained a 10% vote share, down from 24% in 2013.

Tripura Congress party chief Pradyut Deb Burman had indicated to The Wire correspondent that the Congress was fielding candidates in all constituencies to ensure that the party apparatus and organisation remained motivated and the core vote base was retained, even if the Congress was nowhere in the reckoning to seize power. The Congress has retained an average of 34% vote share in Tripura since 1993 when the Communist Party of India (Marxist) came to power. In all the 25 years that the communists held power, the Congress never fell below 32% vote share in the state. So this was Congress’s minimum voter base for 25 years. How did it fall to just 1.4% in this election?

One explanation is that the Congress organisational apparatus was bought off by the BJP entirely, and with it went 96% of the Congress’s vote share. But this can only be partially true, for money alone cannot create such a swing in voter base. Yes, the powerful and well-networked state organisation leaders of the Congress had gradually shifted to the BJP in 2016-17. This was reflected in the BJP’s candidate selection, where 44 out of 60 candidates were former Congressmen who had some support base in those constituencies.


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Even assuming that the BJP had poached the Congress organisation and candidates on a large scale, it still does not explain a vote base erosion of this magnitude. What seems clear is that the consistent voters of the Congress had completely given up on the party and its possible role in determining the future of Tripura and its society. This should really worry the Congress party. No political party can get so totally squeezed out of the voter’s mind space. In the voter’s consciousness, the Congress system, as it has historically evolved at the national level, may have been replaced by the BJP system in the context of Tripura. The Congress needs to worry about this and must seriously analyse the scale of its vote erosion.

Even if the Congress had put up a semblance of a fight in Tripura, it would have definitely improved the chances of the CPI(M). If the Congress had retained even a third of its historical average vote base of 34% the BJP’s chances would have diminished. On a standalone basis, the CPI(M) and BJP have both got about 43% vote share. The BJP has been helped by its alliance with the local tribal party, Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura, which got about 8% of the votes.

If the Congress had retained about 10-15% of its historical average vote base, the BJP vote share would have fallen to less than 35%. In that event, the CPI(M) would have easily won. This must have been the calculation of the CPI(M), which seemed so confident of winning yet again. The communists had probably calculated that the Congress would retain at least one-third or half of its vote base, thus creating a split in the anti-incumbency vote.

For this to have happened, Congress leaders should have campaigned a little harder which they did not do. Rahul Gandhi addressed only one rally on the last day of campaigning. The Congress probably left it to the CPI(M) to win the battle and did not put in even the minimum effort to retain a reasonable chunk of its vote base. This was a huge mistake, in hindsight. Falling from 36% vote share to 1.4% in a matter of five years requires a full-fledged internal inquiry by the Congress if only to ensure such a sand dune-like vote shift doesn’t occur elsewhere.

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