Its seems that the unpredicted monsoon has caused havoc for many farmers this year. India was celebrating an early monsoon, with farmers all over the country sowing extensively and anticipating a good harvest, but all that seems like a dream for many of them. So what impact does it have on our food security and thali?

Let us begin from the Southern states. Recently Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah said heavy rains have caused crop damage of about Rs 550 crore in the state due to heavy rainfall, while 111 persons have died since April this year.

While paddy is not majorly impacted, the excessive rains have affected other crops in the categories of vegetables, lentils, millets, etc. Overall, 5.20 lakh hectares have been affected with major damage in districts including Kalaburagi, Dharwad, Bidar, Belagavi, Bagalkot, Haveri and Vijayapura.

Early estimates put crop damage owing to the rainfall at over 2.2 lakh acres in 28 districts of Telangana. The major crops affected are paddy – damaged in about 1,09,600 acres – and cotton crop in 60,100 acres. The estimated damage of other crops include soybean (21,000 acres), corn (16,000 acres) and red-gram and other pulses (6,750 acres).

Karnataka and Telangana both are major seed producing hub for the country. And if seed producing farmers are affected, it may have deeper impact on the next cycles of agrarian production too.

Maharashtra is reporting 35 lakh  acres of crop land damaged due to heavy rains across 29 districts. Marathwada, which is one of the region with maximum farmers’ suicides is also reporting 5 lakh hectares of damaged crops and 50 deaths so far. The main crops impacted in the state are soybean, maize, cotton, urad, tur, moong, besides, at some places, vegetables, fruit crops, millet, sugarcane, onion, jowar, and turmeric.

Moving westward, Rajasthan had the highest rain surplus this monsoon. It received 73% extra rain, which caused floods in the state and displaced thousands. This naturally had an adverse affect on the farming too. As per reports the heavy rainfall damaged bajra, jowar, soybean, groundnut, green gram and black gram crops in Ajmer, Tonk, Kota, Bundi, Jaipur and Dausa districts.

Gujarat has also been hit with heavy rains and around 49 people have died in the state with major crop damages reported in Kutch, Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagadh, and several other districts that have been flooded for days. The dry land of Kutch reported 180% excessive rainfall this monsoon. So one can imagine how unprepared the people were.

Meanwhile, Bihar and Assam have received below average rainfall. Bihar reported a 32% decrease in rainfall and Assam 34% lesser rainfall this year, resulting in a decrease in agrarian production in these states.

Himachal Pradesh, which has been one of the worst hit states, reportedly suffered  a loss of Rs. 2,173 crore in the rainy season. Within this the loss to the horticulture sector is being estimated at Rs. 2,743 lakh and Rs 1,145 lakh to the agriculture sector. Apple, which is a major crop of the state, has taken a big blow, as farmers have no means to make their harvested apple reach market due to washing away of the roads and national highways.

Most of the crop is rotting on the fields. The state disaster management authority estimated total losses to public and private property amounts to be Rs. 4,08,097.49 lakh (over Rs. 4,080 crore).

Exports expected to be impacted

With over 4 lakh acres of standing crop damage, Punjab is one of the worst affected states by the rain. All districts have been declared flood hit and crops ranging from paddy to sugarcane have all been impacted.

Reports are putting basmati rice production to be below average, along with 20-25% drop in paddy production from Punjab. These numbers could go even lower, given that much like other flood hit areas, Punjab is also now vulnerable to plant diseases, pest attacks and fertilisers and agri-chemical shortages.

Jammu and Kashmir is also reporting major losses of the paddy crop due to the floods with losses to apple growers being pegged to be between $68- $ 79 millions dollars. 1.40 lakh hectares are impacted in Jammu alone. In fact some areas are reporting up to 90% crop losses in the region.

Almost all major agrarian production regions have been deeply impacted by the vagaries of the weather. This phenomenon also points to short term food inflation. In some case such as paddy and lentils,  potential shortages can also be witnessed, leaving an impact on exports, including that of Basmati.

The government will also need to see how it will refill our strategic food reserves and supply critical fertilisers for the rabi sowing and re-nourishment of the standing crops.

This current crisis will also be a litmus test for the crop insurance scheme, as this is the time when we can identify gaps in the scheme and improve it for the future to tackle newer challenges of climate change and natural calamities.

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