Import, Swadeshi or Shift to Organic? Decoding India's Cotton Dilemma

India’s “very good friend” Donald Trump is in the news again, for he is "pleased to announce that India and the U.S. are continuing negotiations to address the trade barriers between our two nations.”

So, what does it mean for our cotton farmers and domestic industry?

Over the last month, India reduced its cotton import duty to zero from 11% under the US's pressure. The move effectively allowed foreign US based cotton to reach India between Rs. 50,000 - 51,000 per candy (355.6 kg), severely harming the domestic market. As a result, many farmers' organisations launched protests.

Farmers and political leaders across party lines rallied behind the protesters, with cultivators saying that this move could increase distress and lead to more farmers’ suicides.

To understand the issue better, we spoke with former director of Maharashtra state cotton federation Vijay Jawadhi, who is a cotton farmer himself. He pointed out that India has been increasing cotton import each year. In 2024 it was 19 lakh bales, a figure that increased to 49 lakh bales of cotton by August 2025.  He asked an important question, “why remove the import duty of 11%? Why remove the duty now”.

“The government has also played in to the textile traders’ demands. They have been asking for the past two years to remove the duty.  The American market is slowing down amidst global price stagnation. Millers want cheaper cotton. Farmers also didn’t get the cotton MSP last year. Even after exporting our cotton, farmers  can’t get good prices. Trader cotton representative Atul Ganatra,  two months ago said we won't get MSP this year too,” said Jawadhi.

“The import duty is removed to sacrifice the cotton farmers of India for Trump. The message sent to Trump by reducing cotton duty to zero is – we need to restart negotiations, soon we will open all trade like corn, soybean, dairy, etc.,” he added.

To get another view, I spoke with Mohini Mishra, national mahamantri of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)-affiliated Bhartiya Kisan Sangh.

“There is nothing to worry about the USA tariff. This is a trade attack. We are a world in ourselves and if we develop organic cotton we don’t have to come under USA pressure and buy the genetically modified cotton from the USA. If we strengthen our organic production we can sell our organic cotton to the USA, and circumvent the sanctions,” said Mishra.

However, he opposed the removal of import duty and its possible extension to December 2025.

“We have written a letter to the agriculture minister to not extend the zero-duty period to December,” said Mishra, also stressing that once the cotton harvest comes, there will be a “shortage of cotton for the industry”.

To understand the perspective about organic cotton, we spoke with Umendra Dutt of the Kheti Virasaat Mission in Punjab.

“Tariffs are not affecting the organic cotton ecosystem directly, because we buy locally and process them. We are not selling in the open market. We give more than 10%  but its hard to say what will be the full effect of this on the organic market,” he said.

Surinder Pal Dhingawali from Fazilka, another cotton farmer, said that the market prices have fallen due to removal of import duty.

"Earlier, the market prices were Rs 7,200-7,500 per quintal but now it has fallen to Rs. 6,000 quintal (raw) because of the tariff. When we use Bt cotton, we are supporting America and Monsanto , and when we don’t use their seeds and their pesticides, when we don’t use their products, it will be a big dent in the American economy," he said.

"So, we have to ensure that our sovereignty remains when it comes to seeds. It will protect ecology, economy and biodiversity and also make us self sufficient. Today, many American consumers want non Bt, non GMO cotton, so we could sell it back to America,” he added.

A senior executive of a major foreign apparel company, who spoke to us on the condition of anonymity said that “the big players are biting the bullet at this stage and carefully watching what happens next.

But the small and the medium players are all folding up or shifting businesses to other countries like Bangladesh or Vietnam. The real victims are the daily wage workers in the manufacturing sector all over the country who are out of work and have no means of livelihood.

This will have a ripple affect across society as millions of labourers are now unemployed.

The possible solutions

As swadeshi is the buzz word ever since the tariffs have kicked in, we asked what does real swadeshi mean for farmers.

Pointing to history, Dutt said, “We must revive the Swadeshi movement. We can boycott and start movement for burning of American cotton. That is the only way we can have a real swadeshi consciousness in India.”

As cotton prices crash, the minimum support price MSP appears to be redundant. Could the declaration of a higher MSP be an answer?

Jawadhi says that the move could be successful only if it's backed by a guaranteed procurement by the government agencies like Cotton corporation of India (CCI).

“CCI procured 100 lakh bales of cotton last year to stabilise prices and ensure farmers get MSP. Now for this year we are seeing an increase in the MSP for cotton to Rs. 8,110 per quintal, but the farmers won’t realise this price. And this was said before much before the import duty was removed,” he said.

“It is the government that has removed the duty altogether, and now it is the government’s responsibility to buy the cotton at the MSP rate. If the government fails, the nation’s farmers will be looted of Rs. 15,000 crore. CCI shouldn’t buy cotton to protect MSP, traders should buy the cotton at the market rate ad then the government should transfer the price difference directly into the accounts of the farmers,” Jawadhi added.

Even though many farmers, farmers’ organisation and experts agree that developing a swadeshi organic cotton economy could help ward off the tariff damages, it is difficult in the face of GM cotton onslaught on our fields.

The US will eventually push India to open its doors for more American origin GM crops and seeds.

“Bollgard - 1 (Bg-1) and Bg -2 production is failing and the third generation GMO cotton herbicide tolerant BT cotton doesn’t increase production, with the only advantage being that the herbs don’t grow. It’s not a yield increaser. The Ht gene is not a solution to pink bollworm. This is false advertisement. 60% cotton acreage is of the illegal Ht bt variety but the production is still not increasing and all the seeds is coming from Gujarat,” Jawadhi said.

Both the Left and Right agree that a shift towards organic could be the only viable option of escaping the tariffs and having a stronger domestic cotton economy. Now it's up to our policymakers to decide, if the land of Gandhi can really walk the talk on swadeshi or sacrifice more farmers for American corporate greed.

Indra Shekhar Singh is an independent agri-policy analyst and writer.

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