Why the Super El Nino Should be a National Concern

Our worst climate fears are confirmed as 2026 isn’t just a Super El Niño year, but as reports suggest, it could be the strongest El Niño the world has witnessed so far. With Pacific water temperatures projected to be 2.5 degree Celsius, the world could descend into a complete climatic chaos as reversal of our conventional weather patterns is imminent. Some forecasts even predict the temperatures going way past 3 C and India being among the worst hit countries, potentially losing its precious monsoon, water and agriculture.

Reportedly there is a 98% chance of El Niño this summer and an 80% of a “strong one”, as per experts at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It is also suggested that El Niño will begin within the month, warming up the Earth, and causing major storms, floods and drought in the Asia Pacific region. This current El Niño is predicted to cross the 2.7 C threshold of 1877 and has the potential to cause grave humanitarian crisis.

Before we get to India, let's see what’s happening with weather globally. Due to excessively hot pacific waters, the air above the vast Pacific Ocean has warmed up. As mentioned before, the air above the Pacific waters could rise to 3 degree Celsius above normal temperature. What this does is that it transforms the usually cool air over the Pacific Ocean into a hot air pocket. So the Pacific, instead of being a high pressure cool area becomes a hot aired low pressure area because hot air rises in the atmosphere and leaves a vacuum. This vacuum becomes the low pressure zone and forces cool air from the others parts of the globe to rush in.

This phenomenon is dangerous because normally the Pacific cool winds that travel towards Asia and Australia to succour the hot heated land continents. They bring with them water vapour and monsoons that cool down the land masses and bring prosperity and life to these lands. Now with excessive heating, the wind movements will be reversed. And all of our monsoon and cooler moisture laden winds will land up in the west coastal regions of North and South America. Experts also predict that with the coming of winter, the phenomena will only get stronger. Hence, the affects of this Super El Niño could last up  to two years.

To put this in perspective, the last “very strong” El Niño occurred between 2015-16, when the average three-month Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly for November, December, and January peaked at 2.4 C. The El Niño episode persisted for roughly 18 months and sparked a devastating global climate crisis, bringing extreme drought and widespread famine to parts of Asia, Brazil, and Africa that claimed millions of lives, while also causing intense flooding in regions such as Peru.

Gone with the wind?

 Looking at El Niño historically, there is a global consensus that two of the major famines in India  namely famine of 1876-1878 and 1899-1900 are now being attributed to the El Niño phenomena.  Both these are responsible for millions of deaths. A research paper published in Journal of Climate in December 2018 examined the drivers of the devastating global droughts of 1875–1878, which triggered widespread famine across Asia, South America, and Africa. The study found that several regions in both hemispheres experienced unprecedented drought conditions over multiple seasons. In monsoon-dependent parts of Asia, the drought was identified as the most severe and the second most widespread in the past 800 years.

According to the paper, the crisis was driven by a rare combination of climatic events: the exceptionally strong El Niño of 1876-1878, an intense Indian Ocean Dipole in 1877, and unusually high warming in the North Atlantic Ocean. Together, these factors disrupted rainfall patterns worldwide, leading to crop failures and famine across multiple regions.

Other 1783 Chalisa famine and the famines between 1788-94 are also noted for their extreme weather conditions of erratic rainfall and drought and experts believe were caused by El Niño phenomena.

Similarly, as experts are warning a far greater El Niño this year, Indian agriculture could be impacted gravely. This could unfold with global temperatures rising by 0.2 C with one single event. Then comes the stealing of monsoon winds from India and Asia, which shift the pressure zone eastward causing the monsoon to be weak and delayed. The Indian metrological department (IMD) has already confirmed this fact that monsoon will be 7-8% below average this year.

The excessive heatwaves hitting the country are also sign of the El Niño phenomena. This could be followed by a pattern of western disturbance and west winds reaching the country as well, which could disrupt agrarian production. Punjab and others parts of the country have already been devastated by Western disturbances in March and April this year.

The lack of rainfall could affect our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) too in a major way, triggering lower production and high inflation when compounded with the energy crisis and Iran war. Around 16-17% of our GDP comes from agriculture, and with monsoons disrupted, India could be staring at a rural economic and food crisis.

So what can we do? First we need to secure our water reserves because the El Niño could eat up at least two years of rain. The national reservoir capacity should be increased. Canals and reservoirs should be increased. Each village should undertake water sovereignty drive and build enough reservoirs under the Mahatma Gandhi National Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) schemes to hold water. The fact that the Narendra Modi government has said that MGNREGA – the world’s largest rural employment guarantee legislation – will be repealed on July 1, 2026, further complicates things.

Rivers encroachments should be aggressively removed and forestations should be increased as there is direct co-relation between trees and rainfall. Even if all monsoon winds don’t reach us, forests and plantations provide enough vapour for creation of micro-climates and localised rain events. All major deforestation drives like the Hasadeo project should be suspended for two years or companies should be asked to follow afforestation first drive.

For the agricultural sector, the government needs to announce a millet Minimum Support Price (MSP) and procurement policy. Millets are very climate resilient and will also provide the nutrition our country needs in case fertiliser supply is further affected as a result of a prolonged West Asia Crisis. Millets don’t require chemical fertilisers, hence are the need of the hour to save our forex reserves too. Alongside this, less water and chemical intensive paddy varieties like Vishnu Bhog and other local varieties should be encouraged.

If India needs to protect herself from the El Niño phenomenon, our policymakers need to align policy with natural cycles. We can’t afford to be on the road of rampant industrial consumptions. Agriculture to industry, all sectors need to evaluated for their impact on the environment. Water and forests should be conserved at all costs. Climate resilient seeds should be bred under the state public agriculture insitituions.

India can only make herself safe, if we have water, forests, cattle and seeds in our control, else the coming times will punish us very harshly.

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