As Rupee Ends as Asia's Worst Performer Against Dollar, Analysts Say it Could Weaken to '100' Mark

New Delhi: India’s rupee could weaken to 100 per US dollar or beyond if the ongoing crisis in West Asia persists, analysts quoted by Bloomberg have warned.

They have noted that recent policy measures may only offer temporary relief as rising oil prices – driven by the war started by US and Israel attacks on Iran – are expected to worsen inflation and widen India’s current-account deficit, putting further pressure on the currency.

Strategists from Wells Fargo and Van Eck told the news outlet that options markets pricing suggest further losses and signal expectations of a move toward the significant 100-mark.

The rupee had briefly strengthened after an announcement by the Reserve Bank of India that it would cap banks' end-of-day currency positions at $100 million, but it soon fell to a record low of 95.125 per dollar on the very same day earlier this week.

The report notes how the rupee, one of Asia’s worst performers against the dollar, had been under strain even before the war due to capital outflows and external imbalances.

An Economic Times analysis of 10 rival currencies, shows that the rupee is the worst performer in Asia against the US dollar in the financial year 2026, after the local unit lost 9.88% through a year marked by record exits from Indian equities by overseas investors amid a global scramble for dollar-based assets. Opening the financial year at 85.59 per dollar, the rupee ended at 94.83.

Bloomberg notes that traders continue to bet against the rupee.

Mint has quoted market veteran Ajay Bagga as having noted that the rupee breaching the 95-per-dollar mark is an event that is likely to hit the Indian household directly. "Your fuel bills rise, your grocery basket gets costlier, and if you're planning to study or travel abroad, expect to pay significantly more," he said.

The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.