The just concluded voting for the assembly elections in Bihar have confounded predictions by political pundits and pollsters on the outcome. The results will be out November 14, with several factors throwing mixed signals – from the inevitability of incumbent Nitish Kumar, who has been in power for 20 years, to the upsurge in the women’s vote, caste affiliations, even the entry of Prashant Kishore and his party, Jan Suraaj.

To unravel the social framework and social bonds that determine Bihar, The Wire spoke to Ashish Kumar Ranjan of Data Action Lab, a researcher who has designed, led and conducted electoral surveys in different states; and Dr Ashmita Gupta, an economist on women and labour with the Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI) based in Patna. Excerpts from the interview:

What does the unusually high turnout of 65% in the first phase and 67% in the second phase mean for the incumbent government and its political rivals? Who could it benefit?

Ashish Ranjan: It is indeed the highest ever recorded turnout. The highest it [had ever] touched was 64% in 1998 and in 2000, in the parliamentary and state elections, respectively. In the parliamentary election, it was a vote against Lalu Prasad Yadav’s alliance, but in the assembly, the turnout increased while seat share declined for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The voter turnout had increased because there were emerging players at the time, from the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) to the Lok Janshakti Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), etc. Lalu Yadav came back to power, but with the help of the Congress.

There are perhaps three factors that could have contributed to the high voter turnout [in 2025] – the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process that redid the voter list saw the base of electors had shrunk, so, if there were once 100 people, now, there are, say, 90 voters on the list. So, automatically, the voter turnout increased with the same participation. Secondly, it seems people came out to register their vote what with all the hungama about the SIR.

But importantly, it was the energetic mobilisation of voters by both the main alliances – the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahaghatbandhan (MGB) – in the name of government employment, change of government, promises of benefits to women in every household, which also enthused the youth who came to vote in hordes.

Ashima Gupta: High voter turnout can be interpreted in multiple ways, and its implications for the electoral outcome are not straightforward. One possible explanation could be related to the SIR and data correction exercises undertaken by the Election Commission, which may have refined the voter rolls and reduced the denominator, thereby increasing the turnout ratio.

[Note: The denominator here would be the number of registered voters, which fell in Bihar by roughly 65 lakh after the SIR of electoral lists. The turnout rate is calculated by dividing the number who actually voted by the total number of registered voters.]

It is also plausible that the SIR process, by improving the accuracy of the electoral rolls, has encouraged a greater number of individuals to participate in order to make their presence felt in the democratic process. Additionally, the timing of the elections – close to the festival season – may have led to more migrant workers to remain in their hometowns and exercise their franchise.

In terms of issues, this election has witnessed a notable convergence across parties around themes of employment generation, job creation and education – concerns that are particularly salient for Bihar’s electorate. Since most parties have articulated similar promises on these fronts, the eventual outcome is likely to depend less on the issues themselves and more on the electorate’s trust in the credibility and capacity of different political actors to deliver on these commitments.

What about the 65 lakh voters supposedly deleted by the Election Commission of India after the SIR exercise? How will it impact the outcome of the elections?

AR: There was some genuine deletion, the ECI data showed that as many as 22 lakh people were now listed as dead. Then there is the issue of migrant voter duplication, and also of women moving from their parental home to their marital home, which all had to be re-registered.

Also read: Why Fall in Share of Women Voters in Bihar SIR’s Final Rolls Signals a Serious Regression

I believe around 40% deletions are genuine but it should have been done before the SIR, during the routine annual voter revision by the ECI. Why did the ECI conduct the SIR barely three months before the election? In fact, when I met people in Patna and Darbhanga, many said that while they may not have been present during the SIR and came back to register as they were genuine voters whose names had been deleted, the ECI instead gave them Form 6, which is given to new voters. Thus, there are now [roughly] four lakh new voters like this.

AG: It is difficult to draw definitive conclusions at this stage. A more accurate understanding will emerge only after the elections, once detailed data on voter turnout and electoral rolls become available for comparison. By examining the changes in the number of registered voters and actual voters across constituencies and comparing them with the previous two assembly elections, it will be possible to assess where and how the discrepancies have occurred.

It would also be useful to compare these changes with the expected population growth and demographic shifts over the same period. Such an analysis would allow for a more evidence-based assessment of whether the missing data reflect administrative adjustments, demographic trends, or other underlying factors that could have influenced the electoral process.

Is caste a major factor in Bihar, unlike in any other state, and why is it only caste affiliations that determine electoral outcomes?

AR: I have travelled to 19 states to study state assembly elections since 2015 and caste is a predominant factor in every state. However, yes, caste plays a dominant role because of Bihar’s extreme underdevelopment. It ranks at the bottom in its own category of BiMaRU states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. The Niti Aayog has listed Bihar as the poorest state. People may say Bihar has improved in the last decade under [Chief Minister] Nitish Kumar, but it is not true – Bihar’s per capita income in 2004 fell to 33% of the national per capita income (from 49% in 1991). And in 2023-24, it has remained the same, as the economic survey data reveals. The only change has been in the GDP growth rate.

According to the 2011 census, urbanisation in the country stood at 31%; in Bihar, it is only 12%. Industrialisation is weak, the rural agrarian economy's proportion is high, and landlord capacity is low, as people own abysmally small tracts of land, unlike in Punjab and Haryana. People don't have much opportunities for economic growth and prosperity and, in such a scenario, caste becomes a matter of empowerment, or of influence and power by association.

If I don't have a job and economic opportunities, caste gives me privileges, benefits, rights, entitlements and honour simply by association. Caste leaders disperse patronage with benefits, and schemes from education to health, and representation in politics and power.

So, every caste has a leader and it is crucial to be represented in the hierarchy of power for privilege and influence. But as one goes down the caste ladder, the Extremely Bacward Classes (EBC) and Most Backward Classes (MBC) have fewer leaders and representation. As we see today, EBCs are 36% of the population, out of which 10.2% are Muslim. They are, naturally, with the MGB, and the 26% Hindu EBCs favour the NDA.

Nitish Kumar gave 20% reservation to EBCs in local body elections; the MGB has now promised to increase it to 30% in this election campaign. Nitish Kumar’s Kurmi caste group is only three per cent in the state, but by getting the EBCs and women on his side, he has a winning strategy. The EBCs will never go to the MGB as the Yadavs became the new Bhumihars, the new aggressive community, with new land holdings and political power after Lalu Yadav came to power. The Yadavs were not going to threaten the Bhumihars, Rajputs and Brahmins – it was the EBCs who got the wrong end of the stick.

Also read: Bihar’s Gen Z Voters Are Googling Jungle Raj. Some Are Scrolling Past, Some Aren’t.

But something is shifting in this election. The shift is within the Mallah caste, among whose members there is a significant movement to the MGB with Mukesh Saini, who was a minister in the Nitish government, and who accused the BJP of taking away three of his MLAs. The Mallahs have traditionally been with the BJP-RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), but the MGB has declared him as their deputy chief minister, and any shift above 40% can be beneficial to the MGB.

AG: Yes, caste affiliations continue to play a crucial role in shaping social, economic and political outcomes not only in Bihar but across India. Identity-based factors such as caste, ethnicity or gender continue to determine access to education, employment, resources, health and inheritance. A large body of empirical research confirms that social identity remains a key axis of inequality and trust worldwide.

In Bihar, the persistence of historical caste-based inequalities has been well documented. Dr. Saibal Gupta [late head of ADRI] emphasised that Bihar’s economic structure, marked by dependence on central transfers and unequal resource distribution, has reinforced older feudal institutions and social hierarchies. Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee and Lakshmi Iyer (2005) provided strong quantitative evidence showing that colonial-era land tenure systems have had long-lasting effects on development outcomes and institutional performance.

Research conducted at ADRI further shows that caste continues to influence everyday experiences. In a study on government schools this year, teachers’ evaluations of students were found to correlate significantly with students’ caste identities, wherein forward caste teachers exhibited a significant caste-based evaluation bias against Other Backward Classes (OBC), Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe students in government schools. Another study revealed that caste continues to shape aspirations and perceptions of upward mobility among individuals.

Importantly, studies by Stuti Khemani and Kaivan Munshi demonstrate that caste networks continue to serve as mechanisms of trust, coordination and informal insurance, especially in contexts where formal institutions remain weak. These networks help individuals navigate uncertainty in markets, employment and politics, reinforcing both social cohesion within groups and divisions across them.

That said, there are also emerging signs of institutional change. In a recent ADRI study on bureaucratic behaviour in Bihar, evidence suggested that bureaucrats display greater responsiveness toward members of marginalised caste groups, indicating a gradual shift toward more inclusive governance.

The caste survey [conducted by the Bihar government in 2022] was important because it provided an updated, evidence-based understanding of Bihar’s social and economic landscape. Rather than benefiting any one party, the data help all political actors by offering a factual basis for addressing inequality and improving welfare delivery.

The women vote has been quite significant in deciding the outcome of an election?

AR: Since 2010, women voter turnout has seen a significant upsurge in Bihar. In fact, from 2015 and specifically in 2020, the women turn out was higher by five per cent than men. There were two reasons behind this: one, Nitish Kumar had launched schemes to empower women and girls to enroll in schools and colleges, awarding money incentives like Rs 10,000 for passing class 10, Rs 20,000, 25,000 for Class 12, and Rs 50,000 for graduates.

He gave 50% reservation to women in local level elections from panchayat, municipal corporation, and later, 35% reservation in government jobs. Nitish has been developing the women constituency since then and, not surprisingly, women have been favoring him. When we analysed the last state election in 2020, which was a three-phase election, we saw an incredible fact – in the first phase, the turnout of women voters was two per cent lower than men, and the MGB won more than 70% of the seats.

But in the second phase, the turnout of women surpassed male turnout by around three per cent, and the NDA strike rate increased to 55% and MGB was reduced to 45%. In the third phase, the women turnout surpassed male turnout by 10%, the NDA strike rate was 78%. And it saved the Nitish-NDA government.

Another point is the JD(U) won 43 seats in that election, and 37 seats were won where women turnout was higher than the male turnout. Women are the core of Nitish’s constituency and, so far, the BJP has had to depend on Nitish and, one can assess Modi’s success in his central schemes for women only if and when the BJP contests alone.

AG: Across India, women’s political participation has risen steadily over the last four decades. Research by Mudit Kapoor and Shamika Ravi documents this phenomenon, describing women as “silent voters” whose growing participation has reshaped electoral dynamics nationwide. Bihar reflects this trend clearly. In the past two assembly elections, the number of women voters has exceeded that of men in a majority of constituencies, particularly in north Bihar. This region also overlaps with high migration and recurrent flooding, suggesting that some women voters may be representing migrant households.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s long-standing focus on women’s welfare, through policies such as the alcohol ban, the Jeevika self-help group programme and reservations for women in panchayats and police have contributed to Bihar’s reputation as a “maternalistic welfare state”. These initiatives have likely helped consolidate women’s participation in the public sphere.

Also read: BJP’s Shifting Stance on Welfare: From Karnataka’s Critique to Bihar’s Giveaway Blitz

However, it remains unclear whether women vote as a cohesive group with distinct political preferences. Their higher turnout does not necessarily translate into bloc voting.

Have new entrant Prashant Kishore and his Jan Suraaj Party made any impact on this election? Kishore has withdrawn from contesting the election – what do you make of it?

AR: Credit must go to Prashant Kishore for raising his voice and appealing to the people on real issues like massive migration of Biharis outside the state looking for employment, promising to stop it and education, development and such like for three years. And, yes, people are now talking about these issues thanks to him but whether they will vote for Jan Suraj is another matter — Bihar also traditionally has about 20% of the non-NDA, non-MGB voters.

Kishore is expected to get five to seven per cent of the votes, but if he gets 10% and more, he could dent the NDA as he will be pulling the more educated, young, upper caste voter which is their traditional voter. But Kishore seems to be squeezed out because the fight has now become bi-polar between the NDA and MGB.

AG: Yes, Prashant Kishor and his party have certainly made an impact. The very fact that he and his organisation are widely recognised across Bihar reflects a degree of success in political visibility and outreach. His approach appears to be strongly evidence-based – rooted in data collection, field observations and analysis-driven decision making. When certain strategies do not yield the expected outcomes, he seems willing to recalibrate, which reflects an adaptive style of leadership.

Importantly, his campaign has brought sustained attention to structural and persistent issues in Bihar, such as education, employment and governance. Whether this translates into electoral success remains to be seen, but his ability to shape public discourse and highlight fundamental development challenges is itself a significant contribution.

The issues Kishor has consistently highlighted – employment, education and governance – are now firmly part of Bihar’s political conversation. His evidence-based approach to politics has set a tone that others are beginning to follow. Most major parties now rely on data, surveys and ground-level feedback before shaping their strategies.

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