The four-day long Chhath Puja, a devotion unique to Bihar in which the rising and the setting sun are both worshipped – and migrant Biharis make a frenzied return home to participate – has just got over, permitting more serious considerations of politics at the people level as the state assembly election nears. And one thing becomes immediately clear.

In spite of being at the helm for 20 years, chief minister Nitish Kumar retains a degree of personal goodwill on the popular plane, broadly speaking. This is a signal achievement in a state plagued by every kind of social and economic malaise, the foremost of which is the worsening unemployment crisis and the lengthening education and health hiatus, all of which collectively takes Bihar to the bottom of the ladder on practically any socio-economic index that may be devised. 

The per capita GDP in Bihar stands at about 40% of the national average. The dynamics – and the mechanics – of capitalist production and re-production have long ground to a halt.

This wasn’t always the case. In the early 1950s, the Appleby Report on public administration had marked Bihar as India’s best administered state and the economy, in spite of the flood-related sorrows and the droughts that were common then. It stood at the upper end of the states’ tables for some more years.

So, what has this chief minister done that stands out? Well, he has made fine roads connecting small places to bigger ones. However, there is practically no manufacturing or trade and hence, little movement of goods to enhance the economy. But good roads make for visual gratification, and smoother passenger passage for those who can afford cars to drive in.

There is more, and that seems to matter. Nitish Kumar hasn’t gone on a nepotistic spree and hasn’t bent the system to feather his own nest. That’s way above the norm in Bihar and in our national life, though it is widely accepted that Nitish has twisted every rule to stay in power – that infamous “paltu ram”, or somersault man. 

The intriguing question is: is Nitish the setting sun that is not being disregarded in public esteem even if his luck as CM is to run out, or is he the sun behind dense clouds struggling to appear? It will be a rash book-maker to send punters running in one direction. 

The reason is the amplitude that Bihar politics holds in its bosom at the present juncture. No end result appears to exist in plain sight (though there are partisan assessments on the side of the ruling NDA and the challenger INDIA bloc, locally known as the Mahagathbandhan). 

Larger considerations that go beyond the immediate poll results – and could embrace national affairs – too are considered within the bounds of possibility. 

With the unpredictable Jan Suraaj, the upstart new party of poll manager-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, also in the fray, a close reading of the situation appears premature and Bihar-based observers look to be rightly cautious. There is a thought that the Jan Suraj leader may have done infinitely better were he not from a “suvarna” caste.

Caste matters, of course, as in the choice of candidates with the calculation that electors would give their foremost consideration to their caste kin. But sufficient reason exists to think that, to a certain degree, ideology is sheltering behind the caste factor in some measure.

Thus, it is that the upper caste have generally lined up behind the BJP. In Bihar, the upper classes are dominated by the upper caste groups and, since the eclipse of the Congress party as a pole by the late 1980s, they see the BJP as their party of choice – especially in terms of superficial cultural markers such as valuing education and privileging certain norms of social conduct.

But it is noteworthy that the subaltern castes and classes do not automatically line up behind the BJP’s opponents, and this seems principally because the BJP cannot win with upper caste votes alone and has gone out of its way to tie up with several ‘social justice’ parties, for example Nitish’s Janata Dal (United).  

That breaks the class antagonism factor even theoretically, the state taken as a whole. It is also to be noted that the upper classes/castes have not generally shown flexibility on the class aspect. They do tend to act as a bloc in favour of particular elements of the political spectrum, unlike the subaltern sections.

Is there the possibility of this changing in the upcoming election? At this stage there are grounds to suggest that forces are tentatively at play that could potentially make politics veer from the set pattern of the past two decades.

Among sections of the electorate – the Muslim minorities, of course, but also others – there seems to be anxiety that the BJP has fattened itself organisationally in the Nitish Kumar dispensation, though Nitish has not let the saffron party run away with negative policy, executive actions, or the vile actions of ideology-oriented hooligan gangs prejudicial to social harmony that are typically seen in BJP-dominated states. 

Since PM Narendra Modi, Union home minister Amit Shah, and other senior figures of the BJP have stoutly resisted public remarks to indicate that Nitish Kumar would be chief minister again if the NDA canters home this time too, there is considerable speculation that Nitish is already out of the reckoning for the top post and must think out of the box to run his politics. 

The fact that there has never been a BJP CM in Bihar, the only major state in north India to have thwarted the BJP’s ambition, Modi’s party may be eyeing an opportunity this time. If things work for it, there could be a real possibility that an obscure first-time MLA may be given the honour, as in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

In that event, Bihar too would be run from the PMO in New Delhi as part of Modi’s fiefdom. Caste stalwarts of many upper caste parties are likely to be uncomfortable with a rank junior throwing rank at them. This runs counter to the caste hierarchy-centric and semi-feudal mentalities that are seen to condition Bihar.

Being no newcomer to the game, the wily veteran Nitish Kumar is thought to be already considering evasive action and this involves efforts to get even with some elements within the NDA. End results can only be speculated.

The most common talk concerns the scope for Nitish Kumar to form government yet again in concert with the INDIA bloc if his goal within the NDA is denied. In that case, there could be a sequel playing out in New Delhi, possibly ending with the reordering of the governing arrangement at the Union, given Modi’s  dependence on allies. 

Now, given this, will Modi go to the extent of belittling Nitish Kumar in Bihar?

This concatenation of probabilities makes the Bihar election hard to read, though it may be said that the NDA appears to start out more advantageously. 

With the special intensive revision, the Election Commission, whose actions have raised suspicions about its leaning toward BJP, has knocked out about 47 lakh voters, the bulk of whom may be INDIA bloc supporters. Day-to-day highhandedness during the election may also be expected as in other states.   

The stakes are very high this election in Bihar. The result here could have a cascading effect in other states, and New Delhi may want to leave nothing to chance. 

On the flip side, there is much riding for Rahul Gandhi too. Discouraging results in Bihar could raise all kinds of questions – and not only about Tejaswi Yadav, who eagerly sought the future-CM mantle. A positive showing would naturally point to better fortunes.

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