The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been a part of the government in Bihar for nearly 15 years of the past two decades. Yet, it has never led a government in the state independently, despite its dominance in several other north Indian states, including Uttar Pradesh. However, in recent years, this desire to lead has found expression among many BJP leaders in the state.

Desire to lead

The BJP accepted a “junior role” in Bihar primarily because it lacks a popular state leader to steer the party to an electoral victory. To remain in power, it has had to rely on the popularity of Nitish Kumar, the chief minister and leader of the Janata Dal (United). Nevertheless, the BJP now sees an opportunity in the JD(U)’s declining performance and concerns about Nitish Kumar’s health. Although the BJP claims Nitish Kumar will remain the chief minister if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retains power, political signals reveal the party’s intention to assume leadership of the state government.

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For the first time since the February 2005 election, the BJP and the JD(U) are contesting on an equal number of seats: 101 each. In previous elections, the JD(U) had contested on more seats than the BJP: 138 to 103 in February 2005, 139 to 102 in November 2005, 141 to 102 in 2010 and 115 to 110 in 2020. This marks a shift to an equal partnership between the two allies.

Further, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken the lead over Nitish Kumar in the NDA’s campaign since the 2024 Lok Sabha election. This is unlike before, when both leaders shared equal prominence. For instance, Modi is positioned above Nitish Kumar on the roadshow platforms, while NDA posters prominently feature his image, often larger than the latter’s.

Recently, Modi launched two state government schemes – the Bihar Rajya Jeevika Nidhi Saakh Sahkari Sangh Limited and the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana – which highlights his dominant role in the alliance campaign.

Moreover, the prime minister’s frequent visits to Bihar before the elections, Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s carefully worded statements on chief ministership in December 2024 and more recently, as well as the precedent from the Maharashtra assembly election indicate that the party is preparing to take the lead in Bihar.

Road to chief ministership

For the BJP to have its own member as chief minister, it must secure substantial support from the backward castes. Eyeing this vote, the party has tried to cultivate its own leaders among backward communities of Bihar. Sushil Modi served three terms as deputy chief minister, until he Renu Devi and Tarkishore Prasad, both from Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), replaced him after 2010.

This reflects an essential feature of backward caste politics in Bihar: it has been rooted in their mobilisation since the early twentieth century, notably with the formation of the Triveni Sangha by the Yadava, Kurmi and Kushwaha communities. After Independence, in the 1960s, they mobilised behind the demand for greater political inclusion, which gained sustained momentum in the late 1980s, and set the trend for backward caste politics in the state.

Riding Kushwaha aspirations

Of the Triveni Sangha troika, a Yadav or Kurmi leadership has headed the state for the past 35 years, except for the brief tenure of Jitan Ram Manjhi as chief minister. The Kushwaha community, though traditionally aligned with the Kurmis and given the moniker ‘Luv-Kush equation’ in Bihar politics – has been asserting its own leadership aspiration. This aspiration intensified after the caste census of 2023, which reported that the community constitutes 4.21% of the population – only after the Yadavs.

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The BJP, hoping to ride the wave of this aspiration, projected Samrat Chaudhary, a Kushwaha leader, as its ‘face’ in Bihar. He was quickly given escalating responsibilities: Leader of Opposition in August 2022, state party president in March 2023 and deputy chief minister in January 2024. In May 2023, Union minister Giriraj Singh had proposed his name as a future chief minister. However, Chaudhary’s elevation did not yield electoral dividends for the BJP, as it did not secure substantial Kushwaha support in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

JD(U)’s outreach

Kushwahas, though conventionally associated with Kurmis, voted in large numbers for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led grand alliance, or mahagathbandhan in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. This was largely due to the significant number of tickets allocated to candidates from the community. After the election, in an effort to win back its core voters, the JD(U) appointed Shribhagwan Singh Kushwaha, a former minister and a popular figure in the Shahabad region, as a Member of the Legislative Council.

Moreover, Upendra Kushwaha, a former Union minister with substantial support among his community across Bihar, was elected to the Rajya Sabha as an NDA candidate after losing the Lok Sabha election from the Karakat seat. In the ongoing assembly election, the JD(U) has fielded 13 Kushwaha candidates – the highest within the party – accounting for nearly 13% of its total nominees.

On the other hand, 14 candidates from the community are contesting on the RJD’s symbol, the highest number among all parties, making up about 10% of its candidates.

The Kushwaha community is therefore a pivotal electoral constituency in Bihar’s evolving political scenario. The question is how the community will align politically in this election: will it support the BJP, encouraged by Chaudhary as potential chief minister, fulfilling their leadership aspiration? Or will it remain with the mahagathbandhan if its representational strategy appears to better serve political interests? That is a key development to watch out for during the polls and after the results are declared.

Niraj Kumar is a PhD scholar at the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, Jawaharlal Nehru University. The views expressed are personal. 

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