BSP's 'Mega Rally' on October 9, All Eyes on What Mayawati Will Signal

The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is set to organise a 'mega rally' on October 9 in Lucknow, aiming to rejuvenate the party after a series of electoral defeats. All major political players are closely watching the rally, which coincides with the death anniversary of the party’s founder, late Kanshi Ram. Many believe that if the BSP revives, it could significantly reshape Uttar Pradesh’s political landscape ahead of the 2027 assembly elections.

For the first time in years, the BSP cadre appears to have pulled up its socks, mobilising to reclaim the party’s past glory. To rally supporters, the party has employed multiple communication strategies – from road-corner meetings to distributing pamphlets featuring Dalit icons and slogans like, “Dalit, Pichde, Alpasankhyak ki awaaz, Bahujan Samaj ka naya aagaz” (Voice of Dalits, OBCs, and minorities – a new beginning for Bahujan society).

Top police officials visited the rally site on Monday (October 6) to oversee security arrangements, and facilitate the rally. Officials have called the security inspection a routine process to guide subordinate officers.

Critics see it as part of a pattern of selective enforcement as the same state administration has repeatedly denied opposition parties permission to organise rallies. Fir example, in August the police blocked a candlelight march by the Congress's Lucknow unit against alleged vote theft.

Despite several top leaders leaving the party over the years, the cadre remains active. From traditional campaign methods such as posters and wall paintings to modern social media outreach, BSP supporters work effortlessly to ensure the rally’s success.

Once a formidable political force but string of losses in recent years

The BSP, formed in 1984 for the emancipation of the Dalit community, emerged in the mid-1990s as a formidable political force, forming governments in Uttar Pradesh four times under Mayawati’s leadership.

Its crowning achievement came in 2007 when the party formed the government in India's most populous state on its own, winning 206 out of 403 assembly seats through Mayawati’s social engineering, which brought together Muslims, backward castes, and Brahmins alongside Dalits.

However, the party’s fortunes have declined since 2012. The Samajwadi Party (SP) dethroned the BSP that year, reducing its seats from 206 to 80. The downward trend continued in subsequent elections: in 2017, BSP seats fell to 19, and in 2022, the party managed only a single seat.

Yet, despite this poor performance, the BSP retained a vote share of 12.88%, with the Dalit Jatav sub-group remaining loyal. Dalits, considered the backbone of the BSP, constitute nearly 20-21% of the state population – about 4.13 crore people.

The rise of Narendra Modi in national politics further impacted BSP’s performance. The party failed to secure any parliamentary seats in the 2014 and 2024 general elections. In 2019, however, Mayawati won 10 seats after forming an alliance with the SP. In 2024, the BSP, contested independently, won no seat but still captured roughly 9.3 percent of the votes in UP.

Opinions on the BSP’s decline vary. Some argue that Mayawati’s reluctance to work at the grassroots level has created disillusionment among Dalits. Others point to the exit or expulsion of heavyweight leaders like Naseemuddin Siddiqi, Swami Prasad Maurya, and Brijesh Pathak, which weakened the party’s influence across different voter groups.

Non-Jatav Dalits, who make up nearly 45% of the Dalit vote, had shifted toward the BJP after 2014. However, persistent atrocities against them led to growing disillusionment. Rather than returning to their traditional base in the BSP, a significant portion gravitated toward the SP and Congress, which contested as part of the Congress-led INDIA Alliance in 2024.

The SP managed to win 37 out of 80 seats in politically-significant states of UP, while the BJP’s tally fell sharply from 62 to 33 seats.

In 2023, there was renewed hope for the BSP’s revival when Mayawati announced her nephew, Akash Anand, as her successor and appointed him national coordinator. However, Anand faced repeated challenges: he was expelled and reinstated twice between May 2024 and April 2025 due to disciplinary issues, controversial statements, and intra-party conflicts involving his family.

Anand’s first expulsion, on May 7, 2024, followed remarks during the Lok Sabha election campaign that party leaders believed could alienate voters. He was reinstated on June 23, 2024, after apologising and agreeing to follow Mayawati’s strategic direction.

His second expulsion in March 2025 involved his father-in-law, Ashok Siddharth, who allegedly interfered in party affairs. Anand was restored in April 2025 after publicly apologising and promising to adhere to party discipline.

These cycles of removal and reinstatement diminished Anand’s image as a beacon of hope for the BSP. Dalit thinkers argue that Mayawati’s decisions have weakened him, making it difficult for him to establish a firm political footing.

“Anand will face multiple challenges to make space in politics, especially with another young leader, Chandrashekhar Azad, emerging in UP’s Dalit politics,” says Ram Kumar, a Dalit activist.

A strong BSP could challenge Akhilesh Yadav’s SP in 2027

Despite having only one seat in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the BSP leadership remains confident of forming the government in 2027. Vishwanath Pal, the state president, cited BJP’s 2012 position as a reference: “We neither have lawmakers nor heavyweight leaders this time to support us, but BSP sympathisers will arrange their own transport for the rally to strengthen the party and its ideology.”

Political experts believe that a resurgent BSP could significantly impact UP’s political dynamics. Mayawati’s strong presence could turn the 2027 assembly elections into a triangular contest, unlike the 2024 general elections, which were essentially bipolar between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA Bloc.

“If Mayawati remains focused on Dalit issues, there is a chance of revival. But if she shifts focus toward Brahmins, backward castes, and Muslims, she risks alienating her core voters,” says senior political commentator Naved Shikho.

Experts also note that a strong BSP could challenge Akhilesh Yadav’s SP in 2027, as Dalits often prefer the BSP when it contests vigorously. This could, in turn, benefit the BJP, which seeks to erode the voter base of Dalit, Pichare (Backwards), Alpasankhyak (Minorites), (PDA) cultivated by Yadav during the 2024 general elections.

The SP dealt a setback to the BJP in the 2024 general elections, winning 37 seats, and becoming the third largest party in parliament. A significant section of non-Jatav Dalits also supported it, who traditionally supported the BSP.

Ram Kumar asserts, “Mayawati is now fighting for her own existence, not for Dalits. “Dalits’ priority is to protect the Constitution, which secures their rights and reservation, not just to support a leader,” he added.

While a new leadership can be created in the future, the Constitution itself cannot be rewritten once it is eroded, Ram Kumar further added.

"Dalits see BJP as undermining the constitution, and they view Rahul Gandhi as emerging as a defender of constitutional values,” he added.

As the BSP prepares for October 9, the party faces a critical test: can it mobilise its base, rebuild its image, and reestablish itself as a force in UP politics? The coming months will reveal whether Mayawati’s rally is a symbolic show of strength or the first step in a political comeback.

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