Explainer: The War in Congress Over the Karnataka CM Post

For the past few weeks, Karnataka has been in the news not for a tech breakthrough but for an intensifying political storm. The ruling Congress party in the state is grappling with an open power tussle between its two tallest leaders – chief minister Siddaramaiah and deputy chief minister D.K. Shivakumar. What was once a whispered factional rivalry earlier has now burst into full public view, with the debate centering on a reported promised tenure sharing formula between the two leaders agreed upon during government formation in 2023.

The conflict has spilled beyond routine political chatter. Supporters of both the leaders have engaged in a war of words across social and mainstream media. Even a group of MLAs aligned with Shivakumar travelled to Delhi, to show strength and pressurise the party high command, signalling the depth of the rift.

A long-running rift

The exchange escalated further when Shivakumar, from his official X handle, posted: Word power is world power. Keeping one’s word is the greatest power in the world. The remark, widely interpreted in political circles as a pointed reference to the unfulfilled power sharing promise, immediately set off ripples.

Hours later, CM Siddaramaiah took to X with an alleged counter message: A word is not power unless it betters the world for the people. The contrasting statements made it clear Karnataka’s Congress government is now being overshadowed by a very public competition for political legitimacy and future leadership.

The factionalism in the Karnataka congress is not new. The rift between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar had been clearly visible even during the 2023 assembly election campaign as well. Throughout the months-long election campaign, the two leaders were rarely seen sharing a stage, barring instances when senior leaders from the Congress high command organised any meeting or public gathering.

This contrast was sharp enough for ordinary voters and party workers to notice. It was only in the final days before voting that Shivakumar, the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president, met Siddaramaiah and publicly declared unity. This was not just an ordinary meeting but it helped the party to bring both supporters on the same page, which was missing earlier.

Presenting a united front worked really well for the congress. The party saw one of its strongest performances in the last three decades, winning 135 of 224 seats, its best tally since 1985, when it won 178 and also secured around 43% of the vote share. This sweeping majority was not possible without the combined force of Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA (Minorities, backward classes and Dalits) driven social coalition against Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) LIBRA (Lingayat plus Brahmin) and Shivakumar’s organisational machinery across constituencies.

Both leaders were indispensable: one brought mass credibility, the other brought structure, resources, and cadre mobilisation. Yet even in the glow of victory, the underlying tension remained. On multiple occasions after the results, Shivakumar subtly invoked the alleged 2.5 year power sharing formula, hinting from public platforms that an agreement existed, a hint that would later fuel the present confrontation.

To understand why the power struggle between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar has reached this intensity, one has to look beyond personalities and straight into the caste arithmetic that defines Karnataka’s politics. The Congress's revival in the state was not an individual achievement; it was a carefully stitched social coalition, balanced on the shoulders of two men who come from two of the state’s most influential communities.

Siddaramaiah, 79 years old, is the tallest Kuruba leader Karnataka has seen. The Kurubas, a significant OBC community forming around 6–7% of the population, have historically lacked an undisputed mass leader until Siddaramaiah built his political philosophy around them. His famous AHINDA social engineering became more than an acronym. It turned into a formidable political identity that countered the dominance of the two major landowning castes: the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas.

Siddaramaiah’s two terms as chief minister (2013–18 and 2023–present) were built on this coalition, strengthened by welfare politics, social justice messaging, and his credibility as a backward caste leader who had challenged Lingayat and vokkaliga dominated politics of the state. Shivakumar, on the other hand, comes from the Vokkaliga community, the second most dominant landowning caste after Lingayats. With 13–14% of the population and near-total dominance in the Old Mysuru region or Southern Karnataka, Vokkaligas have shaped Karnataka politics for decades and their influence is supported by powerful mathas, local elite networks, and landholding clout.

Shivakumar rose through the Congress ranks as a classic organisational strongman: a fundraiser, a crisis manager, a loyalist to the Gandhi family, and a leader who could turn the election when everyone believed it's tough to come back. His role as KPCC has been very admirable for high command because in the last many decades congress was missing the absence of leaders who can have good influence over district units across the Karnataka. His ability to mobilise resources also gave him an aura that few Congress leaders anywhere in India possess today.

This is precisely why the Vokkaliga community today sees Shivakumar as their most rightful claimant for the chief ministership in a generation. The pressure is not just political, it is spiritual and institutional as well. Several prominent Vokkaliga mathas have begun openly backing Shivakumar’s demand, the most notable being Nirmalanandanatha Swamiji, the revered head of the Adichunchanagiri Math.

In an unusually direct intervention, he appealed to the Congress high command to appoint Shivakumar as Karnataka’s next chief minister. He said he had been closely observing Karnataka’s political developments and urged the Congress to act swiftly. While stressing that the Math supports all communities, he made it clear that the time had come to honour the commitment to Shivakumar – a pointed reminder of Vokkaliga expectations. These two power centres – one rooted in caste mobilisation, the other in organisational muscle supported by caste institutions – were always on a collision course.

The caste factor

Karnataka’s caste fabric makes that collision inevitable. The Lingayats (16-17%) and Vokkaligas (13-14%) have historically dominated state politics. A staggering over 45% of Karnataka MLAs typically belong to these two communities, despite them forming around 30% of the population. Of the 23 Chief Ministers Karnataka has had, nine have been Lingayats, seven Vokkaligas, and only four from the OBC communities.

No leader from Schedule Caste (SC), Scheduled Tribe (ST) or minority communities has ever held the top post. In this hierarchy, Siddaramaiah, one of the rare OBC Chief Ministers, is an exception. His rise disrupted a decades-long caste structure, which is why he is not just another CM but a symbol of upward mobility for backward classes and Dalits.

For the Vokkaligas, Shivakumar represents the strongest claim to the CM post since the Janata Dal (Secular's) (JD(S)'s) H.D. Deve Gowda era. In the 2023 election, the Congress reclaimed several old Mysuru seats not because of national issues but because Shivakumar camped there, negotiated alliances with local seers, activated caste networks and ensured that the Congress brand returned to the region. His supporters believe that if a Lingayat (from BJP) and a Kuruba (Siddaramaiah) can become CM, it is now the Vokkaligas’ rightful turn.

This is where the power sharing promise becomes political dynamite. Siddaramaiah’s camp argues that his victory was powered by AHINDA and welfare guarantees, and therefore he deserves a full five-year term, especially because given his age, this is likely to be his last innings in politics. Shivakumar’s camp insists that the Congress high command promised a 2.5-year rotation, balancing AHINDA and Vokkaliga aspirations.

Shivakumar’s cryptic posts on X about “keeping one’s word” were amplified not just by his supporters but by powerful Vokkaliga mathas signalling that the demand has moved beyond individual ambition to community assertion. Behind the scenes, other communities are watching too. AHINDA groups view Siddaramaiah as their protector against upper caste dominance and BJP’s Lingayat heavy approach. The Vokkaliga community, long used to seeing the CM’s chair within reach, but not quite theirs sees, Shivakumar as their strongest bet in decades.

In this showdown of power politics, the current tussle should not be seen merely a political rivalry. It is a clash of two social alliances one built on caste justice, the other on caste pride; one rooted in redistribution, the other in organisational authority. Since both these alliances are crucial for the Congress to remain afloat in Karnataka, the party now finds itself trapped between its two strongest pillars.

Factionalism in Congress is a continuing phenomenon

The Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar rift is not an isolated eruption. It is part of a familiar story that has haunted the Congress for years: a story of internal rivalries left unattended until they explode. Karnataka today is simply the latest stage on which an old script is being replayed.

Take the case of Madhya Pradesh in 2020. For months, the tension between chief minister Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia kept simmering and remained in public domain. Party workers felt the divide, but the high command pretended everything was normal. When Scindia finally walked out with 22 MLAs, the fall of the Congress government felt almost inevitable. The BJP didn’t have to fight; the Congress gifted them the state by ignoring the cracks within.

The same year, Rajasthan witnessed another high voltage political drama. Then chief minister Ashok Gehlot and deputy CM Sachin Pilot were caught in a drawn out cold war between two leaders representing two different generations, two different visions, and two competing camps. The visible friction, the stretches of cold distance and temporary peace effort all contributed to weakening the organisation. By the time Rajasthan voted in 2023, the Congress’s house was so divided that no welfare scheme or campaign message could stitch it back together. The loss was written into the infighting long before the votes were cast.

In Chhattisgarh, the story took the same turn as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Chief minister Bhupesh Baghel and his deputy cm T.S. Singh Deo were locked in a quiet battle over a supposed 2.5-year rotational CM promise, the same kind of deal that now hangs over Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. Instead of resolving the tension early, the high command allowed two power centres to grow inside the same government. By the time the 2023 elections arrived, the bitterness had seeped deep into the organisation, turning a popular government into a losing one.

And then there was also Punjab, where congress internal friction was so open that one leader had to leave the party. The feud between then CM Captain Amarinder Singh and Navjot Singh Sidhu played out in front of the entire country. Because of poor decisions, quick leadership shifts, and public fights, the party lost its credibility. In 2022, Congress didn’t just lose, it was reduced to a small player in a state it earlier dominated.

These stories share a troubling pattern: when the Congress leadership waits too long, speaks too little, and hesitates too much, the fractures widen until the organisation breaks. Karnataka stands at that very cliff today. The Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar tussle is not merely about two leaders; it is about a party that has repeatedly failed to manage its own contradictions. If the high command repeats its old mistakes, one of Congress’s biggest triumphs could easily turn into its next major loss.

Aamir Shakil is a Political Researcher based in Delhi. Sunil K.S  is a Bengaluru based political analyst who closely tracks South Indian politics, with a focus on electoral behaviour, caste dynamics, and party strategy across Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

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