Lucknow: In Lucknow's Kanshiram Smarak Sthal, under the shadow of the grand dome honouring the Bahujan Samaj Party founder, Mayawati unleashed a speech that was less a lament for a fading party and more a defiant blueprint for revival. But amid the cheers of blue-clad cadres waving elephant flags, one line stood out like a crack in the armour: a nod of gratitude to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Adityanath government for maintaining the memorials she built.

Was this a calculated move to project pragmatism and distance herself from outright antagonism, or a miscalculation that handed ammunition to her fiercest rival, Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP)? In Uttar Pradesh's cutthroat politics, where every word is dissected for hidden alliances, this brief praise has already sparked accusations of "internal collusion," dulling the sharpness of her otherwise razor-focused attack on SP's PDA (pichhda, Dalit, alpsankhyak) outreach and risking further erosion of BSP's core Dalit base.

'They neither remember PDA...nor honour them'

The rally on October 9, 2025 – marking the 19th death anniversary of Kanshiram, the architect of Bahujan politics – was billed as a "mega show of strength." It surprised many, given BSP's dismal showing: just one MLA in the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh assembly and zero Lok Sabha seats in 2024. Whispers of the party being a "spent force" had grown louder, fuelled by vote fragmentation and the allure of SP's inclusive PDA narrative.

Yet, as Mayawati took the stage, flanked by her nephew and heir apparent Akash Anand, the murmurs gave way to clarity. She positioned BSP as the unyielding guardian of Dalit aspirations, vowing to contest the 2027 Assembly polls solo under her leadership, with Akash as the future torchbearer.

"The way you have stood in my support against all odds when Kanshiram was alive and after his death...I want all party members to similarly stand firmly with Akash Anand," she urged the crowd, invoking loyalty as the party's lifeline.

But it was her scalpel-sharp critique of SP that dominated, framing Akhilesh Yadav not as a former ally from the 2019 grand alliance but as the "biggest political enemy." She tore into SP's PDA politics as opportunistic hypocrisy, reserved only for opposition benches.

"When they are in power, they neither remember the PDA or the great saints, gurus, and leaders, nor honour them. But once they are out of power, they suddenly remember our saints, gurus, and great leaders. People need to be very cautious of such two-faced individuals," Mayawati thundered, directly calling out Akhilesh.

She recounted how her BSP government had renamed Kasganj district after Kanshiram, only for SP to reverse it upon taking power in 2012. "I want to ask Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav this. You have so much respect and reverence for the esteemed Shri Kanshiram ji. When my government was in power in UP, we created a separate district in the Aligarh division named Kasganj and named it after the revered Shri Kanshiram ji. But as soon as the Samajwadi Party came to power, why did they change the name?"

Her barbs extended to SP's alleged neglect. "The SP government had not used funds for memorials on their upkeep but now when they are out of power, they are reportedly planning a seminar on Kanshiram."

This was no vague rhetoric; it was a clarion call to consolidate Jatav (Chamar) Dalits, who form BSP's bedrock, against SP's encroachment. "We never benefited much when we contested assembly elections in alliances. Our votes shifted to them but their caste-based votes never benefited us. This is why we have decided to contest alone," she declared, signalling a break from past coalitions. Echoing Dr B.R. Ambedkar, she reminded her cadre that "political power" is the "master key" to unlock Dalit emancipation, warning against "selfish and saleable people" like splinter leaders. "Don’t spoil your vote in favour of such selfish and saleable people by falling into the trap of your friends or relatives as this would only benefit our opponents."

'BSP is grateful'

Yet, the speech's pivot to praise for the BJP – Adityanath's administration, no less – introduced a jarring note.

"I am grateful to the current state government because they did not hold back the collection of funds from sale of tickets of memorials, built during my regime, for their upkeep...So, the BSP is grateful to CM Adityanath," she said, contrasting it with SP's "deterioration" of the sites during their tenure.

This olive branch, intended perhaps to underscore BSP's non-partisan commitment to Bahujan icons like Kanshiram and Ambedkar, backfired spectacularly. It invited swift retaliation from SP, amplifying doubts about Mayawati's solo strategy.

Akhilesh Yadav, ever the quick counterpuncher, fired back on X before holding a press conference in Lucknow. "Grateful to oppressors for gain," he posted cryptically, implying BSP's thanks to BJP masked a deeper understanding.

In his media briefing, he doubled down: "I would like to remind you that, apart from him (Kanshiram), if anyone else had placed statues, I too had done so during my tenure as chief minister...We planted trees and took care of these parks far better than claimed." SP leaders piled on, dubbing her silence on the recent Raebareli lynching – involving a Dalit victim – as proof of "collusion with the saffron party."

'Doesn't deserve praise'

A former BSP MP, speaking on condition of anonymity, echoed this internal unease, revealing that the party's cadre remains deeply demoralised, especially after recent poll debacles. "All BSP workers were eagerly waiting for the road ahead and Behenji’s clear direction," he said. "While Behenji may have praised the BJP, it has done no good to Bahujans. The BJP is equally culpable as the SP, and it doesn't deserve this praise – it could have been avoided, especially at today's event."

This praise creates confusion at a precarious juncture: with over a year until 2027 polls, Mayawati needs to posture equidistant from all rivals to reclaim her "iron lady" image. Instead, it gifts SP fodder to paint BSP as compromised, potentially deepening cadre doubts and accelerating vote leaks to PDA's embrace.

Uttar Pradesh's electorate, numbering around 15.9 crore voters in 2024, is a caste mosaic, with no single group exceeding 15% but alliances dictating outcomes. Based on 2011 Census data with updated estimates for 2024, Scheduled Castes make up about 21% of the population or roughly 42 million people, Other Backward Classes account for 40-45% or about 80-90 million, 'upper' castes comprise 19-20% or around 38-40 million, Muslims represent 19% or approximately 38 million, and Scheduled Tribes are at 0.6%. Voter turnout typically hovers between 65-70%, with caste loyalties amplified by sub-caste dynamics such as Jatavs versus non-Jatav Dalits.

In terms of party support based on 2024 estimates from surveys like CSDS-Lokniti post-poll analyses, 'upper' castes, including Brahmins at 10% and Thakurs or Rajputs at 8% with others at 2%, largely back the BJP with 75-85% support, while SP gets 10-15%, BSP less than 5%, and Congress 5-10%. For OBCs, Yadavs at 8-9% overwhelmingly support SP at over 80%, with Kurmi/Koeri at 7-8% and Maurya at 5% splitting between SP at 50-60% overall for the group and BJP at 40-50% especially among non-Yadav segments, BSP at 10-15%, and Congress at 5%.

Scheduled Castes, with Jatav/Chamar at 12-13%, Pasi at 5-6%, and others at 6%, see BSP holding 50-60% loyalty particularly among Jatavs at 70-80%, but SP has gained 25-30% through PDA outreach, BJP 20-25% among non-Jatavs, and Congress 5-10%. Scheduled tribes like Tharu and Buksa back BJP at 40%, SP at 30%, BSP at 20%, and Congress at 10%. Muslims, predominantly Sunni and Shia, support SP at 60-70% via PDA, Congress at 15-20%, BSP at 10-15%, and BJP at 5-10%. Jatavs form about 60% of Dalit voters but have fragmented since 2017, with BJP dominating 'upper' castes and non-Yadav other backward classes through welfare schemes, SP's PDA broadening to include 17 other backward class sub-castes and Dalits to boost its Dalit share from 15% in 2019 to 25% in 2024, BSP retaining Jatavs but losing non-Jatavs to BJP, and Congress remaining marginal with reliance on urban Muslims and Brahmins.

This intricate web underscores BSP's precarious position. The party's trajectory reflects Dalit vote fragmentation. In Lok Sabha elections, BSP won 10 seats with 19.4% votes in 2019 under an alliance with SP, but in 2024, contesting solo, it secured zero seats with 9.4% votes, compared to BJP's 33 seats and 41.7% votes down from 62 seats and 49.6% in 2019, SP's 37 seats and 33.8% up from 5 seats and 18.2%, and Congress's 6 seats and 9.5% up from 1 seat and 6.4%. In assembly elections, BSP's performance dropped from 19 seats and 22.2% votes in 2017 to just 1 seat and 12.9% in 2022, while BJP held 255 seats with 41.3% in 2022 up slightly from 312 seats and 39.7% in 2017, SP rose to 111 seats and 32.2% from 47 seats and 21.4%, and Congress dipped to 2 seats and 5.2% from 7 seats and 6.3%.

Vote shifts in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls saw BSP's 9.4% or about 1.2 crore votes halve from 2019's 19.4% or roughly 2.4 crore, with around 4-5% or 50-60 lakh votes shifting to SP and the Mahagathbandhan, especially Jatav women and urban Dalits drawn to PDA's caste census push and Akhilesh Yadav's PDA Bhawan outreach, fuelling SP's 15% jump and helping the alliance win 43 seats versus BJP's 33 down from 62. Another 2-3% or 25-35 lakh votes went to BJP, mainly from non-Jatav Dalits like Pasi and Valmiki through schemes like free rations and scheduled caste/scheduled tribe sub-quotas. The remaining 1-2% shifted to others like Azad Samaj Party, which won one seat in Nagina, or to NOTA. In 16 NDA-won seats, BSP's share exceeded margins, such as 10-15% against 5-8% wins, suggesting BSP indirectly aided BJP by denying Mahagathbandhan clear sweeps. Conversely, in Mahagathbandhan strongholds like Azamgarh or Rampur, BSP's residual pull has diluted SP's leads.

How a BSP revival can change the poll picture

A BSP revival – say, clawing back to 15-20% vote share, a 10% uptick from the 2024's nadir – would fragment UP's vote banks, turning 2024's effective bipolarity of Mahagathbandhan versus BJP into a tri-polar mess, benefiting BJP most in assembly polls where seat math favours plurality winners. On BJP, the impact is minimal directly, as BSP's 2024 votes hurt BJP in 16 seats where if transferred to Mahagathbandhan, NDA might lose national majority, but revival could split Dalits further with Jatavs to BSP and non-Jatavs staying with BJP, aiding BJP in over 100 seats with 5-10% Dalit share.

Adityanath's firm law-order stance post-Bareilly incidents bolsters BJP's upper-other backward class base, with outlook targeting 250-plus assembly seats via RSS-isation of other backward classes. On Congress-SP's PDA, it would be devastating for Mahagathbandhan, which rode PDA to 43 Lok Sabha seats with SP at 37 and Congress at 6 by netting 25% Dalit votes up from 10% in 2019. BSP's rise erodes this, as Jatavs at 12% voters could return home, slashing Mahagathbandhan's edge in 50-60 seats. Congress, already weak with 5% base, faces a three-way battle without SP tie-up signals, and Akhilesh's PDA, now with caste enumeration victory, loses steam if BSP frames it as Yadav-centric. In seat-wise analysis from 2024 Lok Sabha examples, BSP's spoiler role was stark in close contests, with in 20 Mahagathbandhan-won seats with less than 5% margins, BSP averaged 8-12%, for instance in Nagina scheduled caste seat in west UP where Azad Samaj won by 1.2% and BSP got 12.5%, potentially allowing Mahagathbandhan or SP an easy win if consolidated, given its Jatav-heavy demographics.

In Bijnor in west UP, SP won by 0.6% while BSP had 11.8%, meaning a shift to Mahagathbandhan could boost its margin by 12% and oust BJP in this Muslim-Dalit area where PDA consolidated without BSP. In Sambhal in central UP, SP's 1.1% win came with BSP at 10.2%, a transfer potentially giving Mahagathbandhan an 11% edge in this Yadav-Muslim-Dalit mix. In Lalganj scheduled caste seat in east UP, BJP won by 2.4% against BSP's 14.7%, exceeding the margin and flipping to Mahagathbandhan if shifted, amid non-Jatav Dalits backing BJP. In Bara Banki scheduled caste seat in central UP, BJP's 3.1% win faced BSP at 13.5%, close to enabling a Mahagathbandhan victory with Jatav shift to SP hurting BSP.

Overall, in 16 NDA seats like Lalganj and Machhlishahr, BSP's 10-15% exceeded 2-5% margins, meaning a transfer to Mahagathbandhan could cost BJP 10-12 seats. For 2027 assembly, including 17 scheduled caste-reserved seats, BSP could win 5-10 if hitting 12%, forcing Mahagathbandhan to 100-120 seats versus 111 in 2022.

Saurabh Chauhan is an independent journalist.

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