Modi’s Somersault on Caste Census is a U-turn Fraught with Long-Term Challenges for the RSS-BJP

The Modi government’s approval of a caste-based census marks a dramatic shift for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which have historically resisted such enumeration.

It has conceded to forceful and consistent demands made by Lok Sabha leader of opposition and Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, often against the wishes of a section of his own party’s leadership.

Before the 2024 elections, Modi called a caste census a sign of the “urban Naxal” thinking of opposition parties – today he has become one himself.

This U-turn from Modi is not just a policy pivot but a significant departure from the foundational tenets of Hindutva ideology and the BJP-RSS’s longstanding stance on caste and social engineering.

At its core, Hindutva as articulated by the RSS and BJP aspires to unify Hindus under a single ethno-national identity, minimising and obliterating historical divisions such as caste. The ideology projects a vision of Hindu society where caste distinctions are either downplayed or ignored, aiming for a consolidated Hindu vote bank that transcends traditional social hierarchies.

Most recently, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Adityanath, one of the most virulent critics of social justice, coined “batenge to katenge”, (‘if divided, will be killed’), trying to misrepresent calls for representation and justice with division and even death.

The RSS and BJP have often positioned themselves as opponents of “vote-bank politics” based on caste, sparing no words and often using abuse to criticise opposition parties for allegedly ‘stoking caste-based divisions for electoral gain’.

L.K. Advani’s Ram Rath Yatra in 1990, which left a trail of blood in the wake of communal riots, was a response to the announcement of the implementation of the recommendations of the Mandal Commission by the V.P. Singh-led National Front government.

In the recent Maharashtra assembly elections, Modi was personally giving slogans like “Ek hain to safe hain”, trying to argue against Gandhi’s demand for a caste census.

After the Pahalgam terror attack, official BJP handles on social media were attacking those who ask for the enumeration of castes by equating them with terrorists asking for people’s religion. BJP Chhattisgarh’s X handle chose to insert the call for social justice in the moment.

Also read: Caste Census Move Is a Win For Opposition, Forces Modi Govt to Support Its Key Demand

Hindutva’s historical opposition

This resistance has been historical, even preceding India’s independence.

For decades, the BJP and RSS have resisted calls for a full-fledged caste census.

The BJP’s main concern has been that such an exercise would fracture the pan-Hindu identity they have carefully cultivated, especially in the politically sensitive states of north India, where caste loyalties run deep.

The fear was that enumerating castes would empower dominant other backward class (OBC) groups to demand greater political representation and resources, potentially undermining the upper-caste leadership that forms a core part of the BJP’s committed support base.

The RSS’s position has been slightly more nuanced but equally stringent: while it is not against welfare measures for some disadvantaged groups, it is staunchly against using caste enumeration as part of a drive for political empowerment.

The Hindutva organisation has repeatedly stated that caste is a sensitive issue and should not be exploited for electoral benefits, emphasising that any such exercise should be scientific and aimed solely at addressing disparities within Hindu society.

It is another matter that at least since 2013, Modi has himself never been shy of exploiting his own OBC identity and the BJP has been known to actively court and cultivate various caste groups during various elections in the past decade.

Modi’s U-turn

Despite this ideological resistance, the Modi government has now approved a caste census, a move seen as a political somersault under the pressure exerted by Gandhi.

The timing is critical: with the 2024 general elections concluded and the 2025 Bihar assembly elections approaching, the BJP faces mounting pressure from other opposition parties who have made social justice a central plank of their campaigns.

Regional parties and the Congress have intensified demands for a caste census. Telangana and Karnataka have done it, arguing that it is essential for refining welfare schemes and ensuring proportional representation for all communities.

Also read: Who Is Afraid of a Caste Census?

By initiating the caste census, the BJP is hoping to preempt the opposition’s social justice narrative and retain its hold over the OBC vote, which has been pivotal to its recent electoral successes. This shift is an attempt by the party to control the framing and implementation of the census using the godi media, rather than conceding that Gandhi’s view has forced Modi’s hand.

This move, however, stands in stark contrast to the ‘unitary’ ethos of Hindutva. By officially counting castes, Modi risks reifying and politicising the very social divisions his ideological mentors have sought to erase under the banner of Hindu unity. It is a tacit admission that caste remains a powerful force in Indian society and politics, one that cannot be ignored or wished away by appeals to religious majoritarianism. Jaati hai ki jaatee hi nahi.

Moreover, the RSS’s cautious response, emphasising that the census should not become a political tool, reflects deep internal discomfort with this reversal.

It seems that Tuesday’s visit by the RSS chief to the prime minister’s official residence was about this U-turn and not about Pakistan or the delay in choosing the next BJP president.

The BJP’s embrace of caste enumeration is a pragmatic, not ideological, decision, driven by electoral compulsion rather than a genuine shift in worldview about caste oppression and social justice.

In sum, Modi’s decision to count caste represents a significant U-turn from the BJP-RSS’s historical stance and the core tenets of Hindutva ideology. It underscores the enduring power of caste in Indian politics and highlights the limits of majoritarian identity politics when confronted with demands for social justice and representation.

The move may yield Modi’s short-term political gains, but it also exposes the resentment that its loyal savarna caste base may feel.

Despite the BJP broadening its support base since 2014, the assured support that the privileged upper-caste offer to the party is crucial to it retaining a hegemony over the narrative in Indian politics, given an outsized savarna presence in the economy, media, social media and other institutions.

While allowing OBCs and others in the Hindutva umbrella may have got reluctant acceptance from this powerful though numerically smaller section after the 1990s, to concede to the inevitable demands of sharing the fruits of power that the caste census will lead to may be harder to swallow.

Also, just as trying to snatch Hindutva from the BJP’s playbook and adopt it has seldom yielded fruits for the opposition, will trying to wrest this key demand from the opposition, so much at odds with its own tenets, win the BJP support? Or will unleashing this genie of Mandal 3.0 only end up legitimising the opposition narrative and allow them to walk away with the trophy of public acceptance?

The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.