Recently, Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi claimed that 10% of India’s population has control over the military, saying, “They (forward castes) have control over the army…And the 90% population (the rest) — you will not find them anywhere.”

While he may be wrong in the details, he is right – if prematurely so – on the essentials, since such ‘control’ is a work-in-progress, set to culminate when Agnipath changes the complexion of India’s army.

The Agnipath scheme is designed to get two birds with one stone. It has in its sights a deflation of the ‘martial races’ and ethnic groups of marginalised communities that have been advantaged by the class proportions (single or fixed) incident in some regiments.

The Agnipath scheme enables a rewind to the halcyon days of the purabiya sepoys, when forward castes formed the mainstay of the army prior to the upheaval of 1857. It will also re-affix the martial races into their place lower down in the social pyramid, while reinserting the marginalised back at the bottom.

An incipient capture

Ideally, the federal polity of an ethnically diverse democratic state ought to have equitable representation of all its constituent regions and communities. Though India has been well served by a democratically subordinate professional military thus far, for the army to reflect India’s diversity would only be healthy way into a fraught future.

For now, there is a regional, ethnic and religious imbalance in numbers within the army. On this the Agnipath scheme, now facing its first turn-over in inductees from four years ago, only flatters to deceive.

Agnipath moves the recruiting paradigm from ethnically based recruiting to an ‘all India, all caste’ system. This undercuts the advantages the communities that had an ethnicity-based pass to enter the army, either as so-called martial races or as carve-outs for the marginalised groups, which were also accorded space within the army, such as Muslims, Ahirs, Mazhabi Sikhs and Mahars.

A second feature of Agnipath, brought in after its advent, is that the recruitment process now features a written test to be taken by candidates prior to their physical examination. This advantages the educationally forward communities, while downgrading the prospects of those who have been traditionally signing up for the military.

The lack of diversity

Regional diversity in the army is only in token proportions. It is well known that north India is well represented while the south and east are under-represented. Of the 331 commissioned in June 2023, 153 were from the cow belt, while only 28 were southerners. Curiously, of 11 from the northeastern region, eight were from Arunachal. It is the relative absence of marginalised ethnic and social groups from the military that is concerning.

As for religious diversity, the relative absence of Muslims in relation to their countrywide presence and proportion in the total population is evident. The numbers of Muslim officers once used to be at two per cent. The latest combined merit list for the National Defence Academy and the Naval Academy has seven Muslim in a list of over 700. Since the two academies would at best take in some 500, merely four would likely make it, gauging from the ranks they obtained, which makes for all of one per cent.

Before Agnipath created an unthoughtthrough problem for Nepalis in the Indian Army, the Gorkhas were double in number than Indian Muslims. Clearly, when the army declined to share numbers on the Sachar committee’s request, it was but concealing an embarrassing reality.

In terms of caste, fine-grained figures are unavailable. It would be reasonable to assume that members of caste groups answering as warriors, that include ‘martial races’ such as the Rajput, Sikhs, Dogras, Marathas and Jats, are well represented in the army. To these communities can be added a smattering of the upper rung of Other Backward Castes, such as Yadavs.

Agnipath undercuts the ‘martial races’ by threatening the regimental system. The deliberate obfuscation by the national security adviser on this question indicates an eventual evolution of the regimental system away from its ethnic rootedness.

With their respective proportions withdrawn, these communities would have to bank on the showing of their youth in common entrance tests. This will likely dilute their numbers, otherwise protected under the regimental system.

Another outcome will be the already negligible numbers of marginalised communities shrinking further. For instance, the Mahar regiment only incidentally boasts figures of Scheduled Caste presence. As for the Scheduled Tribes, but for the Bihar, Assam and Naga regiments, their presence too would be truncated.

Added to this must be the situation in the central police forces and the paramilitary. Even the Assam Rifles – sentinels of the northeast – has a large proportion of groups in its ranks who are not from the Northeastern Region. The central police forces tried increasing the presence of Muslims, but only momentarily. Today, no records of such data are released, so it can be assumed that the situation of marginalised and minority group presence is rather low.

Some groups have been inducted, but only incidentally, such as the Naga hostiles who were taken into the army ranks for counter insurgency purposes. Likewise, some renegade militants were taken into the ‘home and hearth’ units of the Territorial Army and others into the hatchet wing of the Kashmir police. The numbers of Ladakhis in uniform went up after the Kargil War, with Ladakh Scouts attaining regiment status. An effort to induct tribal communities from central India is also on, but has counter-insurgency motives as the impetus.

Under the new recruiting process, those with better educational access gain the advantage, while those from peasant classes and rural areas – the mainstay of soldiery so far – and the educationally backward communities, are liable to be left behind. The newfound need for a tech-enabled workforce busts the earlier logic that high altitude deployments necessitated a younger, profile in the soldiery.

A political consideration

That a federal democracy must have a military reflecting its diversity appears a no-brainer. What’s certain is that there is no conscious policy on diversification, flowing from a belief that a composition reflective of the lived reality in India would be healthy for democracy.

The absence of numbers in the public domain restricts logical, reasoned and credible consideration of this vexed question. The higher purpose of maintaining India as a federal democracy and making it more socially equitable requires security forces to be open to scrutiny.

The military will claim that it is not in the national interest to reveal such numbers. It would cite the potential for such numbers to become a political football. Taking the military’s reservations onboard, the exercise can be kept inhouse, either in a blue-ribbon commission or closed-door sittings of the relevant parliamentary committee. This government's record of ‘surgical strikes’ on the nation, which include Agnipath, indicates that an off-the-radar consideration is possible.

If the forthcoming caste census were to keep security forces out of its purview, it can only be a sub-optimal exercise. The monies that go into the security sector in terms of pay, pension, perks and privileges, will flow to communities advantaged by the Agnipath scheme. It would serve to strengthen their position in the caste pyramid. A more equitable spread – what the caste census is intended to bring about – calls for holistic stocktaking.

Given the regime’s propensity to support ‘control’ of the military by the "10 per cent", there is a need for a concerted thrust to broaden its recruiting profile to include all regions and communities. Current conditions of educational deficits in most communities as against the forward caste advantages preclude ‘All India, All Class’ and meritocratic dogmatism.

Scope for state or district-wise reservations – as indeed is historically the case with the Indian army – needs to be built in. Indeed, grapevine has it that even as the regimental system is tinkered with, it might yet retain some of the proportions of martial classes; which shouldn’t surprise since they also stand second in the social heirarchy as the warrior class.

A narrowed catchment area is undesirable in country of continental size in terms of population and landmass. The aim must be to eventually erase the concerning and unrecognised reality of ‘stacking’ in India, wherein, of some 750 districts over 80% of recruitment is from just over a 100 districts (impressionistic figures).

An undesirable political implication is that potentially a particular political ideology might find its way into the military if the mainstay of recruiting is from the Gangetic belt, where such ideology holds sway.

Alongside, ahead is also a likely dwindling in political power of regions as southern India brought on by a post-census delimitation of parliamentary constituencies. This would weaken any counter balancing heft of the south within the military. A north-dominated military would also constrain the south in maintaining an ethnic balance of power across the subcontinental landmass.

An operational implication is in regard to the military’s showing in internal conflict situations. Prejudices – such as the islamophobia fanned by politicos – can only have a baleful affect. The popularity within the military and the veteran community of the notion that the surgical strike on Article 370 was altogether a good thing is a case to point.

Rahul Gandhi gets it right

To cavalierly dismiss Rahul Gandhi’s statement is par for the course in the thrust and parry of politics, intended to deny him credibility in keeping with the ‘Pappu’ canard.

Understandably, the military’s political master does not want to put his hand on what promises to be alive with bees. However, the military would do well to introspect. If it does not course-correct autonomously, it would only prove Gandhi's point: that it is already corralled by a certain ‘10 per cent’.

An internal inquiry aimed at coming to grips with the data is the starting point. Right-wing-inclined veterans will likely raise a ruckus if a caste count looms over it, but the military would prove befitting of a democratic state if it furnishes its figures to inform the forthcoming caste census.

The claim that the army has no records on religion is hogwash. How else does it know if it has to bury a member or place a body on a pyre? It must realise that one among the ninepins, it cannot but fall, as have others listed by Rahul Gandhi, “... only 10 per cent of the country’s population (i.e., the ‘upper’ castes) get opportunities in corporate sectors, bureaucracy and the judiciary....”

Inequality, whether social or economic, is self-evident in India, and political inequality is set to grow, especially if the inability to control population growth is rewarded with more parliamentary seats. Therefore, an outcome on demographic details shared for the purposes of equality is something to be hoped for.

What currently appears as Gandhi tilting at windmills actually requires a holistic broad-fronted approach. Holy cows like the corporate sector and the military cannot be ‘left out of battle’ on the major political question in the life of the republic.

The original version of this essay first appeared on the author’s Substack. It has been edited and republished with permission.