If there is one spark of newness amid the otherwise placid waters of Bihar's political landscape, it is Prashant Kishor and his fledgling Jan Suraaj Party.

To clear the air at the outset, this newness should in no way be interpreted to mean that Kishor and his JSP are poised to replace the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance in the state. It is also premature to predict that Kishor is close to ushering in what he repeats in every speech: ‘Jan Suraaj ki vyawastha (a beautiful system for the people)’.

The vyavastha parivartan (system change) that Kishor advocates requires a fundamental shift in the voting behaviour of a people divided by myriad castes and sub-castes, and mired for decades in mental, educational, social and economic backwardness, prejudices, pride and dogmas. The deprivation and related hopelessness are so entrenched that election-time doles of Rs 10,000 to women, promises of free electricity, and myriad other poll-time freebies are seen as “grand relief” by the people and “master-strokes” by media favourable to the NDA's election machine.

Yet Prashant Kishor’s painstaking padyatra (foot march), accompanied by intense interactions with people at the grassroots, has generated a groundswell of goodwill for him and his party. The JSP is the only party to field candidates in all 243 assembly constituencies. 

This is evident in the crowds Kishor draws – from Bhagalpur to the minority-dominated Seemanchal region comprising Araria, Purnea, Kishanganj and Katihar; from the BJP’s stronghold in the greater Champaran region of north Bihar to the violence-prone Jehanabad in south Bihar. And unlike Prime Minister Narendra Modi, chief minister Nitish Kumar and other NDA and Mahagathbandhan campaigners, Kishor moves without police security. 

In communication skills – rooted in logic, empirical data, facts and delivery – Kishor is far ahead of his rivals. ‘Angry’ is perhaps the better word to describe him than arrogant. He is sharp and caustic in his attacks on rivals – be it Modi, Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav or Lalu Yadav. He spares no one.

It is unknown how many of his candidates will win or what vote share his party will secure. But he leads his rivals in drawing crowds and eliciting boisterous responses. Chatter about him and his campaign themes – large-scale youth migration for a pittance of Rs 10,000-12,000 per month to distant states, his vision to end this age-old curse, emphasis on school education, and systemic corruption in polity and governance – is palpable on social media, in village assemblies and on the streets. He is now a household name in every nook and corner of the state.

There is no way to gauge the degree of damage his candidates might inflict on the two entrenched players – the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. However, Union ministers Amit Shah and Dharmendra Pradhan appeared rattled by the JSP’s rise when they ‘persuaded’ or ‘coerced’ three JSP candidates to withdraw in favour of NDA nominees, as evidenced by the pictures Kishor displayed at his press conferences.

Also read: Tejashwi Yadav’s Coming of Age

Barring Kishor’s freshness and that of his new party, the assembly elections scheduled for November 6 and November 11 are as dull, hackneyed and even boring as they were in 2020. Be it the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan, they offer no novelty in 2025. The media largely frames it as the ruling NDA versus the Mahagathbandhan, given their track record of alternately ruling the state for the last 35 years.

The only constant is Nitish Kumar, glued to the chair – either with the Bharatiya Janata Party or the Rashtriya Janata Dal, as per his convenience.

Let us now examine the weaknesses and strengths of the two “mainstream” alliances in Bihar. 

NDA and the Nitish-Modi Combination

The NDA retained power in 2020 by securing 125 seats – just enough to form the government in the 243-member Bihar assembly. It edged ahead of the Mahagathbandhan by a mere 12,000 votes; the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the Congress and Left parties, won 112 seats, falling short by 10.

There is no empirical evidence to suggest the NDA has increased its vote share for the upcoming polls. Rather, Nitish Kumar's popularity and acceptance have declined from what they were in early 2020. Corridors of power and the streets are abuzz with talk of his deteriorating mental and physical health. The BJP leadership is believed to be engaged in intense behind-the-scenes operations to dispense with Nitish after the results on November 14.

Modi and Shah have remained non-committal about retaining him as CM. There is pressure from Nitish's inner circle on Modi and Shah to declare him the CM face, which they have not done as of this writing. Even if they do, it will make no material difference – it will entirely depend on the numbers thrown up on November 14.

A section of the media is creating the perception that the recent dole of Rs 12,000 to about one-and-a-half crore women has boosted Nitish’s prospects. But women – already beneficiaries of Nitish’s schemes like 50% reservation in local bodies, 33% in jobs and large-scale engagement as ASHA and Anganwadi workers – have been voting for him in successive elections. 

Women from extremely backward and poor communities form the mainstay of whatever vote bank Nitish has. They have voted for him and may do so again. But there is no basis to suggest any substantial improvement in his overall vote share.

His Janata Dal (United) was reduced to 43 assembly seats in 2020, and there is no clear indication it will rise sharply. The BJP’s star campaigners have returned with their “tested” divisive agenda. Amit Shah was heard claiming that a Mahagathbandhan victory would pave the way for the release of banned PFI activists lodged in jails. 

It is inexplicable how a state election victory would affect the Union government’s powers over the PFI. But this is what Shah resorts to, having little to say about his double-engine government’s achievements.

Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath invoked the ghosts of Babar and Aurangzeb while campaigning in Raghunathpur, where the RJD has fielded Osama, son of the late RJD ‘don’ Mohammad Shahabuddin. Expectedly, BJP campaigners are playing the Hindu-Muslim card as brazenly and shamelessly as ever. 

Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan

In terms of honesty with the real issues plaguing the people and clarity of coordination among alliance partners, the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan is far superior to the NDA. Tejashwi has promised a government job to one member of every family in Bihar and has been harping on unemployment, price rise, health care, irrigation and investment. However, Prashant Kishor has strongly questioned the feasibility of Tejashwi’s large-scale job claim.

Still, the fact remains that Tejashwi is honest in keeping the core issue of unemployment central to his campaign. He had promised 10 lakh jobs in the 2020 election and appeared set to deliver when he became deputy CM with Nitish in 2022, providing nearly five lakh jobs. 

The Congress and other alliance partners, though belatedly, have unanimously declared him their CM face. Besides the Congress, the Mahagathbandhan includes CPI(ML) Liberation, known for its commitment to the people’s cause, justice and secularism. While the Liberation leadership under Dipankar Bhattacharya is renowned for its integrity, the party has fielded candidates known for their struggle and dedication to the people’s cause.

Rahul Gandhi – the Mahagathbandhan’s star campaigner – has relentlessly nailed the BJP on the controversial Special Intensive Revision of the voters’ roll and its hate campaign.

Still, there are no definitive indications that the Mahagathbandhan will substantially increase its vote share compared to 2020. Of course, the RJD – perhaps the strongest party at the ground level – enjoys the support of Yadavs and Muslims, together constituting over 30% of the state’s voters. It was this strong base that fetched it 80 seats, making it the single largest party in 2020. CPI(ML) won 12 seats with the best strike rate that year, but the Congress fared poorly with just 19. 

This time, the Mahagathbandhan has also roped in the Vikassheel Insaan Party of Mukesh Sahni, a Mallah caste leader whose community forms about 2% of Bihar’s voters. 

But will all these “positives” catapult the Mahagathbandhan to power, eclipsing the NDA? It remains a moot question.

Surveys and psephology

Katihar-based senior journalist and academic Murari Prasad has quoted Prannoy Roy’s projections for the parties in the fray: NDA 110, Mahagathbandhan 98, and JSP 24, in his social media reports. 

Roy, a reputed media figure, turned psephology and surveys into a national fad with the public from the 1989 Lok Sabha elections onwards at his NDTV, prior to Adani taking it over. Roy’s projections reflect the ripples that Prashant Kishor has apparently created in the intricately complex layers of Bihar’s society.

We’ll still have to wait for November 14 to know what the voters collectively want.

Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author and media educator.

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