Purnea/Kishanganj/Bahadurganj: In the aftermath of the contentious special intensive revision (SIR) of the voter rolls in Bihar, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has crafted much of its campaign for the 2025 assembly elections around the spectre of infiltration or “ghuspaith” – its much-used term for undocumented households. In particular, Union home minister Amit Shah, in charge of India’s border security, has in successive election rallies raised the issue of alleged “illegal immigrants”, and asked if Bangladeshis should be on Bihar’s electoral rolls.  

The BJP is hoping that Shah’s pitch will resonate the most in the poll-bound state’s Seemanchal region which includes the border districts of Purnea, Kishanganj, Araria and Katihar, which together account for the state’s largest Muslim population. But for voters in these districts, which are also the poorest in the state, the spectre of “illegal immigrants” is inconsequential as the region grapples with poverty and a lack of development. There is also a search for a Muslim leadership that will take the region forward.

In Purnea’s Rahua Milki village, Mohammad Afroz, who works as a farm labourer stands leaning on a bamboo fence. A narrow dusty road leads to his house. This is the same road that also runs around the Muslim-majority village.

“Not just in the 20 years of the Nitish Kumar government, nothing has been done here ever. You can see the condition of the village. BJP says Bangladeshis have come, then continues with its Hindu-Muslim narrative. But what work has been done for the public? During the elections parties make promises, 'We will do this, we will give jobs, we will do that.' But after elections they forget everything,” he said.

According to the NITI Aayog’s multi-dimensional poverty index published in 2023 which was based on the NFHS-5 (2019-21) data, 33% of Bihar’s population is multi-dimensionally poor – the highest among all states. All four districts in Seemanchal are among the top ten districts in the state that have the highest prevalence of multi-dimensionally poor populations. In the report, Araria ranks the highest in the state with 52.07% of its population being multidimensionally poor. This is followed by Purnea with 50.70%, Kishanganj at sixth place with 45.55% and Katihar at seventh with 44.21% of its population multidimensionally poor. 

“There is so much poverty here. Amit Shah does road shows inside Purnia city and goes away. He should come to the villages and see how people live. If he came here he would see how people live,” said Bablu Kumar Yadav, a farmer in Purnea’s Satkodaria village.

BJP’s spectre of foreign voters on the campaign trail

On November 8, Shah conducted a road show in Purnia. Prior to the roadshow, addressing a rally in the district, Shah accused leader of opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav of “protecting infiltrators” and announced that “there will be no place for infiltrators on the soil of Seemanchal.”

“Rahul Baba and Lalu Ji say that infiltrators should be protected. I want to tell both Rahul Baba and Lalu Prasad Yadav, we will identify infiltrators, delete their names from the voter list, and deport them back to their country. There will be no place for infiltrators on the soil of Seemanchal. Friends, our government is set to be formed in Bihar, but even a small mistake could bring back jungle raj (lawlessness),” he said in an apparent reference to mis-governance and lawlessness when Lalu was chief minister.

While Shah has made foreign illegal immigrants a mainstay in his campaign speeches, even claiming that only foreigners were deleted from the rolls during the SIR, The Wire has reported that the Election Commission has neither provided a number to support this nor reasons for the deletion of 47 lakh Bihar voters at the end of the exercise.

Earlier on November 3, Prime Minister Modi too while addressing a rally in Saharsa asked the audience: “Mujhe bataaiye, kya Bihar ka bhavishya aap tay karenge, ki ghuspetiya tay karega (Tell me, will you decide the future of Bihar, or will infiltrators')?”

The Wire has reported that SIR found less than 0.012% of Bihar's voters were foreign nationals, while many deletions were those of Nepali women married to Indian men.

In Kishanganj, which borders both Nepal and West Bengal, lying only kilometres away from Bangladesh, Shah’s "infiltration" narrative found few takers.

“The BSF, SSB have a heavy presence here. The Kishanganj DM’s office is also here. Bangladesh is less than 18 km away and Nepal is about 38 km. People are coming and going. If there are illegal immigrants, what have they been doing about them?” said Sampadmal Chajjer, who works as an insurance agent in Kishanganj.

All four districts in Seemanchal also account for the top four of the state's largest Muslim populated regions. According to Bihar State Minority Commission data, Muslim population in Kishanganj is 67%, followed by Katihar (42.5%), Araria (41.13%), and Purnia (36.76%).

“The BJP has been at the Centre for 10 years, in the state they have been in power with the JD(U) for two decades. Who has command over the BSF, central forces and state forces? This is not an election issue but a narrative to polarise voters before elections,” said Digvijay Singh, a former school teacher in Kishanganj town.

The four districts in Seemanchal have a total of 24 seats accounting for 10% of the 243-member Bihar assembly. While the electoral contest here has traditionally been between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has emerged as a key player since the 2020 elections.

The AIMIM factor and questions of Muslim leadership

With 17.7% of the state's population, Muslims play a key role in electing the government in the state. 

In the 2020 elections, the AIMIM won five seats including Amour, Baisi, Bahadurganj and Kochadhaman and Jokihat. In 2022, four of the five AIMIM MLAs joined the RJD. This included Muhammed Izhar Asfi (Kochadamam), Shahnawaz Alam (Jokihat), Syed Ruknuddin (Baisi) and Azhar Nayeemi (Bahadurgunj).

Apart from the AIMIM that won five, the BJP won 8 seats in Seemanchal, the JD(U) won four, Congress won five and the CPI(ML) and RJD won one each in the 2020 elections.

This time, the AIMIM is looking to improve its 2020 tally and has focused its campaign on attacking both the BJP and the Mahagathbandhan for excluding Muslims, and neglecting Seemanchal’s development. In his campaign, AIMIM chief and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi, in a bid to woo Muslim voters that have aligned with the Congress-RJD, has hit out at the alliance for elevating Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahani who represents the Mallah community, as deputy chief ministerial face, but not naming a Muslim despite the community’s share in the state’s population. His words have enthused young Muslims in Seemanchal, who said that new Muslim leadership has become essential.

“Health, education and migration are the main issues here in Seemanchal in this election. Muslims comprise almost 18%, Yadavs 14% and Sahani only about 2%. They (Mahagathbandhan) can name a Yadav and a Sahani as chief minister and deputy chief minister but not a Muslim. They did not do anything for the development of Muslims. Earlier we were Congress supporters because there was no other option but now we have an option,” said Imtiaz Alam, who works in a cyber cafe in Bahadurganj and had just returned from an AIMIM rally.

“We need someone to raise their voice for us. We need to build new Muslim leadership who will work for the community. Even the AIMIM MLAs who joined RJD did not do anything for us.”

While Owaisi’s pitch for Muslim leadership has found takers in the region, questions remain over the party MLA’s performance over the last five years.

“He (Owaisi) only comes here before elections to drive a wedge between Hindus and Muslims. We have voted for AIMIM in the past but what have we got? Bus hawa bana rahe hai [There's only been air]. Even after joining the RJD, those former AIMIM MLAs did not do any work. This whole region gets flooded in the monsoon, Owaisi never comes to visit even once. He comes in his helicopter and leaves after delivering speeches. He did not even say anything when his MLAs switched parties,” said Mohammad Irshad, who runs a cosmetics store in Bahadurganj.

With Muslims divided between the Congress-RJD and the AIMIM, the contest is open for the BJP to make gains. 

“The core issues here are jobs and unemployment. Does Modi go to Gujarat and talk about illegal immigrants? No, because Gujarat already has factories and industries. Neither are illegal immigrants an issue, nor is the anti-Hindu narrative being spun by the AIMIM and the BJP. Just like every Hindu does not believe what the BJP says, similarly not every Muslim believes what AIMIM says. But it is likely to strike a cord among some,” said Jawed Khan, a business owner in Kishanganj.

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