On September 7, the president of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s Bihar unit Sanjay Jaiswal claimed that the population growth rate in the Kishanganj and Araria districts of Bihar is “the highest in the world” partly due to the alleged “Muslim infiltration” into India from Bangladesh. He blamed this for the backwardness of the region. He also said the population growth rate in the two Bihar districts is only comparable to “tribal areas of Pakistan and parts of Ethiopia”.
Jaiswal’s comments have stirred a hornet’s nest, with the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) accusing him of vitiating a peaceful environment ahead of the scheduled visit of Union home minister Amit Shah to the Seemanchal region during September 23-24. They slammed him for linking population growth and Muslims on the one side and backwardness on the other.
Also read: Watch | As Muslims See Sharpest Drop In Fertility Rate, Hindutva Propaganda Falls Flat
While the political slugfest on his comments continues, what is the truth in the claims made by Jaiswal?
False claims
Jaiswal is factually incorrect. Though Kishanganj and Araria are among the most backward districts in Bihar, they do not have the highest population growth rate in the world, as claimed by him. For that matter, he is also incorrect in saying that Ethiopia and the tribal regions of Pakistan register a population growth rate equivalent to that of the particular Bihar districts.
Table 1: Population growth rate across districts/countries/regions in the world
| Place | BJP’s claim | Population growth rate (2011) |
| Kishanganj (Bihar) | Highest population growth rate in the world | 30.25% |
| Araria (Bihar) | Highest population growth rate in the world | 30.40% |
| Madhepura (Bihar) | 31.12% | |
| Shrawasti (Uttar Pradesh) | 30.54% | |
| Kurung Kumey (Arunachal Pradesh) | 116.56% | |
| Yanam (Puducherry) | 77.19% | |
| Ethiopia | Highest population growth rate in the world | 28% |
| Pakistan tribal region | Highest population growth rate in the world | 39.90% |
| Syria | 43% |
According to Census 2011, Bihar’s Madhepura district has a higher population growth rate than Kishanganj and Araria. Outside of Bihar, the Shrawasti district of Uttar Pradesh, Kurang Kumey of Arunachal Pradesh, and Yanam of Puducherry register a growth rate higher than the two said districts of Bihar. As Table 1 shows, Syria’s population growth rate is higher than both Ethiopia and the tribal regions in western Pakistan at the global level.
When he found his claims to be incorrect, Jaiswal came out with a clarification on social and electronic media, by putting out two cropped images of the crude birth rate (CBR) and total fertility rate (TFR) of Kishanganj, Araria, among other districts. He said he had never spoken about the population growth rate per se but was about CBR.
Both images shared by Jaiswal on September 9 were taken from a report titled ‘Fertility at District Level in India: Lessons from the 2011 Census‘ that was authored by Christophe Z. Guilmoto and Irudaya Rajan. It was published in June 2013 by the Centre Population et Développement, Paris.
Jaiswal cropped page number 24 and 26 of the report and shared the same on social media. His post claimed that the CBR of the Kishanganj and Araria districts are the highest in the world. However, Table 2 below shows he had distorted the information available in the report.
The same report mentions many other districts which have higher CBR and TFR than the Kishanganj and Araria districts of Bihar. This includes Mewat district from Haryana; Jhabua district from Madhya Pradesh; West Khasi Hills and Jaintia Hills districts from Meghalaya. Even at the national level, Meghalaya has higher CBR and TFR than Bihar. Even within Bihar, the Khagaria district has higher CBR and TFR than the Araria district (Table 2).
Also read: RSS Claims About Rapid Growth of the Muslim Population are Simply False
The highest proportion of the Muslim population in the country is in the Kulgam district of Jammu and Kashmir. Muslims account for 98.49% of the district, and the population growth rate of the district is only 7.30%. Thus, a correlation between the Muslim community and a higher population growth rate is not backed by any data, including Census data.
Table 2: CBR and TFR of major districts/states in India
| State | District | Crude Birth Rate | Total Fertility Rate 2011 | Total Fertility Rate 2001 |
| Bihar | Kishanganj | 34.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Bihar | Araria | 34.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Bihar | Khagaria | 34.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Madhya Pradesh | Jhabua | 35.4 | 5 | 5.4 |
| Haryana | Mewat | 38 | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| Meghalaya | West Khasi Hills | 37.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| Meghalaya | Jaintia Hills | 37.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Bihar | 29.7 | 4.24 | 4.54 | |
| Meghalaya | 31.3 | 4.34 | 4.45 |
Hitting out at Jaiswal, the JD(U) and RJD claimed that the BJP leader was raking up the so-called population growth rate issue keeping in the mind the scheduled visit of Amit Shah to the Seemanchal region of Bihar during September 23-24. Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia and Katihar districts, which fall under the Seemanchal region, have the highest proportion of Muslim population in the state. JD(U) lashed out at the BJP, stating that it was trying to disturb harmony in Bihar society in the context of Shah’s visit.
Jaiswal sought to counter the allegations of his rival parties by stating that he had never drawn a correlation between the population growth rate and the Muslims. He also cited Bangladesh, a Muslim-majority nation, as a model state for controlling population growth rates.
Notwithstanding the explanation offered by Jaiswal, which also falls flat, both his and his party’s statements have numerous times in the past sought to project the Muslim community as having the highest population growth rate. A number of BJP leaders have recommended population control laws akin to models adopted by the Chinese, primarily to target the Muslim community.
Sanjeev Kumar is the author of the book titled Jatigat Janganana: Sab Hai Raji Fir Kyun Bayanbaji (2022). He can be reached at subaltern1@gmail.com.
