Narendra Modi has a problem that is more vexing and potentially dangerous than any that he has faced since 2014. A split in his Hindu nationalist base has opened between him and a deeply disenchanted Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). His responses to the problem contain contradictions which have made things worse.

The RSS has long had mixed feelings about Modi. He has helped it to become a pervasive presence within and beyond government agencies. But it strongly prefers institutions over individuals. It detests his extravagant personality cult, and his aggressive drive to impose one-man control.

As long as the Prime Minister won thumping election victories in 2014 and 2019, he could operate unchecked. But at the 2024 national election, he committed costly blunders. One was the claim that his stupendous dynamism meant that he needed no help from the RSS. In response, many RSS cadres sat on their hands during the election campaign. That contributed to his loss of many seats and his parliamentary majority, and that made him vulnerable to pressure from the RSS. A long tit for tat struggle began.

RSS leaders accused him of overconfidence and a lack of decorum during the election campaign. They complained that he had nominated too many turncoats from rival parties with no commitment to Hindu nationalism. It didn’t help that 62% of them lost.

After the election, for the first time since taking power in 2014, Modi felt forced to travel to RSS headquarters for advice. He adopted a humble manner, an astonishing change after years of imperious behaviour. But then after the terrorist attack on tourists in Kashmir and what was described as a victory in the ensuing armed conflict with Pakistan, the aggressive Modi re-emerged.

Then the RSS refused to agree on a candidate for the presidency of the BJP. The Prime Minister needed someone who would be utterly subservient. The RSS, whose consent was essential, resisted.

Modi soon hit back. India’s Vice President had been given that office after saying that the Prime Minister had the touch of God in him. But he had recently ceased to be a yes man, associating closely with RSS leaders. He was abruptly forced to resign.

The head of the RSS reacted by stating that his organisation required leaders to step aside at age 75 – which Modi reached in September. The BJP has no such rule, but this comment was plainly intended to embarrass him.

Then, amid the deadlock over the new BJP president, the RSS endorsed a candidate who is Modi’s bête noire – a blatant affront.

To tackle the dangerous split in his base, the Prime Minister took three steps. First, in his Independence Day speech, he lavished praise on the RSS. It didn’t work. The RSS continued to intrude on his room for manoeuvre, for example by insisting that he confront Trump. Modi went further, offering RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat warm greetings on his birthday. But while many world leaders sent Modi similar messages on his birthday, the RSS remained silent.

Second, the Prime Minister summoned leaders of all the parties in his ruling NDA alliance to a meeting. They compliantly hailed his leadership. This was new. The NDA had been largely moribund since 2014. No such meeting had ever occurred, and no convenor had been appointed. Modi had skipped the celebration of its 25th anniversary in 2023. But now, facing heat from the RSS, he needed a strong show of support.

Finally, a campaign was mounted to reinforce Modi’s already extravagant personality cult.

It is crucial to see a contradiction here. The Prime Minister’s words of praise for the RSS and its leader were attempts to ease their discontent. But his other two steps have inflamed those very resentments. The NDA meeting re-emphasised his determination to continue exercising utterly dominant one-man rule. The RSS loathes both that and his newly boosted personality cult. These things have deepened a split which will be difficult or impossible to repair.

Both sides see that their feud poses grave dangers at coming state elections. So despite the rift, they both support a drastic step. The Election Commission, supposedly the guarantor of fair elections, is controlled by Modi. Its revision of electoral rolls threatens to exclude voters from groups that mostly oppose him, not least Muslims. In Bihar where a state election looms in November, substantial numbers of names have been deleted, alongside many dubious inclusions. The Election Commission describes this as purification.

Court rulings and public protests may curtail the culling of voter rolls. A popular backlash may even defeat the BJP in Bihar. But if they do not, and if similar revisions of voter rolls continue in state and national elections, it could finish off India’s democracy which has already suffered grievously.

James Manor is emeritus professor of commonwealth studies in the School of Advanced Study, University of London.

This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.

The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.