After 19-Month Freeze, Modi Signals Thaw with Canada Following Carney’s Win

New Delhi: After the Liberals’ surprise victory in Canada, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he looked forward to working with newly elected leader Mark Carney to “strengthen” ties – a gesture seen as India’s first overture toward a reset, 19 months after diplomatic relations collapsed over allegations that Indian agents were involved in the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

“India and Canada are bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law and vibrant people-to-people ties. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our partnership and unlock greater opportunities for our people,” Modi posted on X shortly after Carney made his acceptance speech.

Carney, a former central banker, led the Liberals to a historic fourth term in the April 28 polls.

The final results are still pending, but the Canadian media projects that the Liberals will fall slightly short of a parliamentary majority.

The turnaround was striking for a party that had appeared electorally doomed just months earlier.

Justin Trudeau stepped down in January after an internal revolt, clearing the way for Carney, who assumed leadership in March and quickly called snap elections.

Analysts say the Liberal resurgence was fuelled by a surge in Canadian nationalism following the imposition of import tariffs and repeated remarks by US President Donald Trump about annexing Canada since returning to office in January.

In his victory speech, Carney addressed those concerns directly: “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us; that will never … ever happen.”

Immediately after his declaration of victory, Prime Minister Modi was quick to greet Carney.

Modi’s congratulatory message signalled a shift in India’s stance to move forward after a period marked by deep hostility.

Diplomatic and people-to-people ties have been severely strained since Trudeau publicly accused Indian government agents in September 2023 of involvement in the killing of Canadian citizen Nijjar, who had been designated a terrorist by India for his links to Khalistan groups.

The fallout triggered a sharp downturn in relations, with both countries expelling diplomats.

India suspended visa services for Canadian nationals, a move reversed two months later, while Canada was forced to withdraw 41 diplomats, disrupting its visa operations.

While India rejected the Canadian allegations, it responded differently when US prosecutors filed charges against an Indian intelligence operative in an alleged plot to kill separatist leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York.

External affairs minister S. Jaishankar later said the US had shared “evidence”, while Canada claimed it had done the same.

Tensions escalated further in October 2024, when the Royal Canadian Mounted Police said Indian agents were behind broader criminal activities targeting South Asian Canadians. Canada claimed to have expelled six Indian diplomats, including the high commissioner. India contradicted this by saying it had withdrawn its envoy and it also ordered the expulsion of six top Canadian diplomats.

Canadian deputy foreign affairs minister David Morrison even admitted at a hearing by a Canadian parliamentary panel that he had confirmed to a US newspaper that Indian home minister Amit Shah was “involved” in the plot to kill Canadian nationals.

During this period of diplomatic freeze, India’s animosity appeared to centre personally on Trudeau.

India’s official statement about the investigation against the Indian high commissioner referred to the Canadian government only as the “Trudeau government”, asserting that his “hostility to India has long been in evidence”.

After Trudeau testified at the Commission of Inquiry on Foreign Interference in the 2019 and 2021 elections, India stated that the “responsibility for the damage that this cavalier behaviour has caused to India-Canada relations lies with Prime Minister Trudeau alone”.

Even with the Liberals returning to power, Trudeau’s departure has opened space for India to recalibrate. The reappointment of high commissioners is being discussed as an early signal of a thaw.

India had previously maintained close ties with former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper and was perceived in Canada as favouring the Conservatives during this election.

The Canadian paper The Globe and Mail published a source-based report that Indian agents and their proxies were allegedly involved in fundraising and community organising in support of Pierre Poilievre during the Conservative leadership race.

Poilievre had to publicly assert that he won the 2022 Conservative leadership race without any help from India.

India was largely absent from official debates and manifestos, with the campaign focused on economic concerns and Trump’s threats.

However, there was still a shadow, with both the Liberal and Conservative parties dropping Indian diaspora candidates for having links with the Indian government or for endorsing a social media post that protesters should be shipped to India to face retaliation.

Carney, meanwhile, had flagged the importance of rebuilding ties with India as early as March, framing it as part of Canada’s effort to diversify trade amid tensions with the US.

“What Canada will be looking to do is to diversify our trade relationship with like-minded countries,” Carney said at an event in Calgary. “And there are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India. There needs to be a shared sense of values around that commercial relationship. If I’m prime minister, I look forward to the opportunity to build that”.

In the final leg of his campaign, Carney reiterated the value of the India-Canada relationship, calling it “incredibly important … on many levels”.

He added: “Countries like Canada, like India specifically, can play an outsized role in building an open, shared economy, shared ideas, a shared relationship. And I think the opportunity for that will be created because of the negative events that have happened – I’m speaking specifically of the trade war.”

Canada had suspended negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India in September 2023, shortly before Prime Minister Trudeau publicly accused New Delhi of involvement in Nijjar’s killing.

Notably, he also suggested that the onus of the strained ties lay with India, saying, “There are strains on that relationship that we didn’t cause, to be clear, but there is a path forward to address those with mutual respect and to build out”.

Trade could offer common ground for India and Canada, especially in light of Trump’s combative stance on economic ties.

But the underlying tensions are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. The trial of four Indian nationals arrested for Nijjar’s killing is expected to begin later this year, during which Canadian prosecutors will have to publicly lay out evidence to support their claims of Indian involvement.

As Carney begins his term, the trajectory of India-Canada ties will depend on how both sides navigate lingering distrust and pending legal proceedings.

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