Businessman Gautam Adani’s indictment in the United States is a matter between him and the law in that country. Since Gautam bhai is now an established global player, he will surely be able to hire the best American legal talent to see off the challenge from the US justice department. In the current crumbling world order, the law is rarely able to bring globally powerful tycoons to heel. And our own Adani is no lightweight. That’s for sure.
It would be foolish and unrealistic to pretend that Adani is like any other Indian business leader whose difficulties with American authorities should be of no concern to the Indian establishment. From the junior-most political reporter to the senior-most bureaucrat, everyone is aware of the proximity between Gautam bhai and the ruling clique in New Delhi. Some would even venture to suggest a mutually advantageous interdependency between the Modi political project and the Adani empire.
It was only the other day that Ajit Pawar was regaling us with details of how Adani was part of the BJP-directed de-stabilisation operation against the Uddhav Thackeray government in Maharashtra. It is then no surprise that the BJP corner has already come out in defence of the indicted businessman.
The very idea of an American arrest warrant against Adani is bound to explode in our domestic politics. The opposition, led by the Congress, will want to make him an albatross around Narendra Modi’s neck. On the other hand, no one should underestimate the ruling clique’s combative skills and political innovativeness in wanting to firewall the prime minister from Adani’s trouble with US law.
The Adani indictment may or may not turn out to be the Modi regime’s Bofors moment; but it can be safely assumed that the ruling clique will have to squander a lot of its political capital to ensure that the prime minister does not get derailed so early in his already unsteady third term. The moral pretence of wholesome politics will no longer work.
That again is essentially a matter of yet another quarrel among politicians. What should be a matter of larger concern is whether India would find itself having to incur sovereign vulnerabilities in its dealing with Washington. It may be a matter of comfort to some that the Biden administration is on its way out; but it needs to be kept in mind that the force of the US indictment will remain intact even into the Trump presidency.
By choosing to unveil an indictment after American voters have voted for a new president, the Biden administration has initiated a legal process that cannot be easily rolled back.
We need to keep in mind that an open-ended vulnerability has been created in the matter of the Pannun murder plot. We have already wasted quite a lot of our national breath defending Vikash Yadav. While the fury and anger vented on primetime television was regular play, strategic community observers were worried – and continue to be so – that India would be made to pay a price for the incompetence of a few hired guns.
The same, and perhaps much deeper, vulnerability stands reproduced in the Adani indictment. Adani is not someone who can be thrown under the bus. Nor for that matter can the ruling clique be said to be selfish or ungrateful; it knows the importance of standing by its friends.
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It would be perfectly natural for the entire Indian Foreign Service and other external assets to be mobilised to ensure Adani’s well-being and protect his business empire. As it is, our diplomats these last ten years have reoriented themselves into the art of reading and anticipating the political needs and preferences of the ruling clique. They need no prompting from New Delhi. Rationalisations and arguments would be invented in Adani’s defence.
The clever operators who now crowd the decision-making corridors can be expected to exude confidence that the matter of the Adani indictment will be settled with the designated honchos of the Trump team. With each cabinet-level appointment made so far, the new president-elect is already announcing to the world that his would be a transactional presidency.
And, the Indian establishment, since the Nuclear Deal days, has become increasingly confident of working the American system to our perceived advantage. Now, the Indian diaspora is sure-footed in dealing with the Washington power-structure too.
Again, it cannot be ruled out that the political leadership at the highest level in New Delhi may seek the help of the American establishment, both in place and incoming, in pulling Adani’s chestnuts out of the legal fire. In fact, there can be little doubt on that count.
The only uncertainty can be what price the incoming administration would extract from New Delhi. Ultimately, that price will be paid by the Indian taxpayer.
The coming weeks and months will be days of extreme political vigilance and alertness. The national interest demands that our political leaders make a demarcation between collective well-being and an individual businessman’s legal difficulties.
And that is where Indian public opinion will need to be alert and active so as to ensure that whatever “deal” is finally cut in defence of Gautam bhai, there is no compromise with national sovereignty. No individual, and certainly not a private businessman, is above the country. This is the simple – and oldest – principle of statecraft.
Harish Khare was editor of The Tribune.
