The new UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy is scheduled to make his first official visit to India on July 23-24, just over two weeks after the formation of the new Labour government. This provides an early opportunity to review and update – and thereby enhance – the bilateral Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
The Labour Party’s return to government on July 5, 2024, with just short of a two-thirds majority in the House of Commons (411 of 650 Members of Parliament, heralds a new era in UK politics. After a 14-year period in opposition the new Labour government’s priorities will focus on domestic issues (economic and social) while seeking a ‘reset’ in its global relationships. It also enables political stability under a single prime minister Sir Keir Starmer for the next five years, in contrast to the three Conservative prime ministers in the past five years.
These factors provide a useful opportunity for the Modi and Starmer governments to review their bilateral Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) in order to strengthen it.
Prime minister Starmer has promised a mission of change, driven by an attitude ‘unburdened by doctrine’. On being appointed as Foreign Secretary on 5 July, David Lammy outlined his priorities as ‘a reset with Europe, on climate and with the global South’; as well as ‘to delivering on European security, global security and British growth’. Not surprisingly, given the immediate and existential security concerns prompted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the wider geopolitical instability arising from the Israel-Gaza conflict, Lammy’s immediate foreign policy focus and travel was on Europe and the Middle East, along with reinforcing ties with its traditional allies.
Yet, the Labour party has also recognised the Indo-Pacific as key for the UK’s future prosperity and security. It has said it is fully committed to AUKUS, the trilateral security pact with Australia and the US established in 2021.
India focus
The Labour party sees India as one of the largest players in the Indo-Pacific region. Its election manifesto seeks ‘a new strategic partnership with India’, including a free trade agreement, as well as ‘deepening co-operation in areas like security, education, technology and climate change’.
The single Indian-origin member of Cabinet, Lisa Nandy (of half English and half Indian heritage), is Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport. Seema Malhotra, of Punjabi Hindu origin, is a Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State (a junior Ministerial position) in the Home Office.
The Labour Party has 29 MPs of Indian origin (including 11 Sikh MPs), representing the largest minority ethnic group in the House of Commons.
India will remain important to the UK for three reasons:
First, as economic growth and jobs are a top priority for the new Labour government, trade and investment ties with India remain essential. India is the second largest Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) contributor to the UK. The 971 Indian-owned companies in the UK have combined revenues of $88.21 billion and employ 118,430 people. Bilateral trade has grown from $17.5 billion in fiscal year 2022 to $20.36 billion in FY2023. In this context, India and the UK have been negotiating a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) since January 2022 with 14 rounds of talks having taken place; but, it has not yet been finalised.
Also read: Modi Dials New British PM Keir Starmer, Raises India-UK Free Trade Agreement
Second, maritime security and stability of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) in the western Indian Ocean remain a key requirement for the UK’s trade partnerships with the Indo-Pacific region. The Labour government is concerned over the rise of China and threats to freedom of navigation and the rules-based international order in the Indo Pacific. In this context, ‘defence and security’ comprised one of the five pillars of the 10-year India-UK roadmap 2030 (4 May 2021), alongside trade and investment; climate; health; and migration and mobility issues.
Third, the British Indian population of 1.8 million people (comprising 3.1% of the total population), constitutes Britain’s largest ethnic minority population. The Indian diaspora has strong links with India and are portrayed as the ‘living bridge’ between the two countries. Lammy recently emphasised this as a key factor of the bilateral relationship.
David Lammy with Keir Starmer. Photo: X/@DavidLammy.
Challenges
But, the Labour party’s perspective towards India, under its then leader Jeremy Corbyn, had reached a low in September 2019, when it passed an emergency motion supporting the right of self-determination of the Kashmiri people and advocating mediation to prevent ‘potential nuclear conflict and restore peace’. This followed the Indian government’s revocation of Articles 370 and 35A of the constitution pertaining to the special semi-autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir.
Lammy, along with 46 other MPs signed a letter in August 2019 to the UN Secretary General stating that the revocation of Article 370 was a ‘direct attack on the political status of Kashmir and its right to self-governance’. Catherine West, Parliamentary Under-Secretary in the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office signed the letter as did the Lord High Chancellor and Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, a Pakistani-origin MP whose family hails from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. The most recent debate on the human rights situation in Kashmir took place in the House of Commons on 23 September 2021, with the participation of all of 32 (of which 22 were Labour) of the total of 650 MPs. All this led to toxic relations between the High Commission of India (HCI) in London and the Labour party.
But, Starmer has never raised the Kashmir issue in the House of Commons nor signed any pro-Kashmiri or pro-Khalistani petitions. As party leader in May 2020, he had written, “We support and recognise previous UN resolutions on the rights of the Kashmiri people but maintain that…a lasting settlement, to end this ongoing conflict, can only be achieved if India and Pakistan work together, with the people of Kashmir.”
This enabled ties to be improved and multiple contacts made between the Labour party and the HCI in the past two years, under the dynamic leadership of High Commissioner Vikram Doraiswami. As a result, in February 2024, Lammy visited India as did others.
Yet, with the election of 11 Sikh MPs, with pro-Khalistani influence in varying degrees in their constituencies, India’s frustrations over separatist activity in the UK are likely to increase. During her electoral campaign, Deputy prime minister Angela Rayner called for an inquiry into the UK’s involvement in ‘Operation Blue Star’, the June 1984 Indian military operation in the sacred Golden Temple in Amritsar, In October 2023, Lammy also promised to appoint a Special Envoy for Arbitrary Detention to advocate for the release of UK citizens abroad, with potential implications for the detention in India since 2017 of Jagtar Singh Johal, accused by the Indian government of involvement in targeted killings in the Punjab, which Starmer has previously described as being ‘unlawful’.
With six of the 11 Labour MPs of Pakistan-origin having roots in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, along with the Cabinet appointment of Shabana Mahmood and that of Lord Khan (of Punjabi heritage) of Burnley as Parliamentary Under Secretary for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, there will be apprehension in India over a ‘re-hyphenation’ of India and Pakistan in UK foreign policy; although such concerns appear exaggerated.
Opportunities
Lammy’s early visit to New Delhi provides an opportunity to emphasise the following.
The UK needs to clarify the nature of the strategic cooperation envisaged with India. There have been ‘mixed messages’ on this. As party leader, Starmer sought ‘a new strategic partnership for global, climate and economic security’; and Lammy advocated one that ‘focuses on new and green technologies, economic security, domestic security and global security’. Neither made any reference to the 10-year India-UK Roadmap (of May 2021) to 2030. Since then, during the exchange of congratulatory messages, both sides mentioned the CSP. In effect, the UK’s intent towards a revised and updated ‘Road Map 2.0’ needs to be emphasised.
Also read: As India Finds itself Lost in the Wider World, the Loss of Strategic Autonomy is Striking
At the same time, India needs to understand that Labour Party backbench MPs, who do not speak for or represent the government, will have freedom of rhetoric during this parliament session. It is therefore more important than ever that New Delhi draws a distinction between the rhetoric of Labour party backbenchers and the actions of the Labour government.
In this context, a reasonably early finalisation of the bilateral FTA will be key. The Labour party, in opposition, had supported the FTA. Yet, the finer details as well as the large political compromises required on mobility and visas (from the UK side) and tariffs (from the India side) will need to be made. The resumption of trade negotiations therefore should be an immediate priority for Lammy’s visit.
Also, imaginative security cooperation and collaboration should be envisaged, both bilateral and trilateral, amidst the ongoing UK strategic defence review. This includes bold initiatives for defence technological and industrial partnerships, including government-to-government and business-to-business cooperation; enhanced maritime security cooperation in the western Indian Ocean; the possibility of an AUKUS link to India along with a QUAD link to the UK; build-up of critical and emerging technologies and space cooperation. The absence of any trilateral India-UK-US cooperative endeavour in defence or security is surprising.
Much has changed since the last Labour government left office in 2010, including India having overtaken the UK to become a $3.6 trillion economy while fast-emerging as the third largest economy in the world within the next 3-4 years. With the Labour government keen on a ‘reset’ of its global ties, including with India, now is the time to start reviewing their bilateral CSP to strengthen it and build greater mutual trust.
Rahul Roy-Chaudhury is Senior Fellow and Simran Brookes is Research Analyst, South and Central Asia programme, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London, UK.
