Has Trump 2.0 Deprioritised India? The Evidence is Clear. 

New Delhi: The relationship between the United States and India under President Donald Trump's second term presents a difficult picture with modest signals towards India and Narendra Modi. 

Most of US’s diplomatic infrastructure for dealing with India remains absent and the administration’s policy decisions have created friction, particularly regarding the Quad’s strategic purpose and unresolved trade disputes, furthering the narrative of India’s deprioritisation in Trump 2.0. 

In addition, the absence of high-profile advocacy from Trump himself, his utterances regarding Pakistan and hard line on stalled trade negotiations underscore growing concerns in New Delhi about a tough time ahead in Washington D.C., despite the personal and political investment by Prime Minister Modi.

Vacant diplomatic positions

The US Ambassador’s post in India remains unfilled as of May 2025, with the post listed as "VACANT" in official records. It is a role critical for crisis management and high-stakes negotiations and its absence has strained day-to-day diplomacy. While career diplomats manage routine operations, the vacancy undermines India’s status as a “major defence partner” and complicates coordination on issues like defence technology transfers.

Paul Kapur, an India expert, was nominated as Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs but has not been confirmed till date. This represents a significant gap in diplomatic representation, particularly given India's strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Reduced NSC capacity

The Trump administration has dramatically reduced National Security Council (NSC) staffing from over 300 under Biden to potentially just 50 personnel. This restructuring included firing dozens of staff members dealing with geopolitical issues, including the National Security Agency, potentially affecting India-focused expertise within the administration's core national security apparatus in the White House. This elimination has shifted policymaking to transactional actors like trade advisor Robert Lighthizer, whose focus on tariffs overshadows strategic priorities.

Pakistan mediation claims

Trump's repeated public statements about brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, after his tacit endorsement of Pakistan’s “frontline” role against terrorism, has crossed India's established diplomatic redlines. His claims of US mediation on Kashmir directly contradicts India's position that such matters are bilateral, causing significant diplomatic friction and shockwaves through India's diplomatic circles.

Tariff threat to Apple

President Trump has threatened Apple with a 25% tariff if the company sells India-assembled iPhones in the US, directly challenging Apple's plans to increase production in India. This stance contradicts efforts to strengthen US-India economic cooperation and manufacturing partnerships.

Similarly, delay in approving GE’s jet engine deal with HAL reveals a disconnect between rhetoric on supply chain diversification and actionable commitments. Trump’s stricter export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment further hinder India’s self-reliance goals in technology products.

Inhumane deportation practices

The Trump administration’s use of military aircraft to deport 682 undocumented Indians since January 2025, with deportees handcuffed and shackled throughout flights, sparked nationwide outrage in India. Visuals of restrained individuals, including women and minors, drew comparisons to criminal treatment, with opposition leaders staging protests in parliament and Gujarat legislators symbolically chaining themselves. Union external affairs minister S. Jaishankar dismissed the incidents as routine, but critics highlighted the contrast with humane deportations of nationals from other countries, calling it a diplomatic failure.

Ambiguity towards Quad

Despite the Quad’s revival under President Trump’s first term, his personal silence on the grouping during his second term has raised doubts about its strategic value to the US. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting on his first day in office, Trump has not publicly articulated a vision for the partnership.

This contrasts sharply with his vocal support for the Abraham Accords and transactional deals in West Asia, creating perceptions of indifference toward the Indo-Pacific alliance. The grouping’s failure to issue a statement during India’s Operation Sindoor against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism has highlighted its limited utility as a security framework that can shape up as a regional alliance.

Uncompromising trade talks

The US imposed a 26% 'reciprocal' tariff on Indian goods in April, framing India’s trade practices as the primary cause of the $41 billion trade deficit. While temporarily suspended until July 9, this punitive measure has forced the Modi government into reactive negotiations, with Washington demanding concessions on agricultural imports (e.g., GM crops) and digital trade rules favouring American tech giants.

The US insistence on “fair trade” privileges its exporters while dismissing India’s developmental needs. Union commerce minister Piyush Goyal’s shuttle diplomacy has yielded little beyond procedural commitments, deepening skepticism about Trump’s willingness to compromise with India.

Remittance tax burden on diaspora

A 3.5% excise tax on outward remittances by non-US citizens, effective January 2026, targets Indian professionals, students and green card holders, threatening $32 billion annual inflows. While reduced from an initial 5%, the levy disproportionately impacts middle-class families reliant on remittances for education and healthcare, potentially slashing flows by 10-15%.

Experts warn of increased informal and illegal Hawala transfers to avoid taxes, complicating RBI’s forex management. The exemption for US citizens has drawn criticism as discriminatory, amplifying concerns over Trump’s “America First” fiscal policies which do not care for the sensitivities of the Modi government.

Student visa restrictions

The administration halted scheduling of new student visa appointments globally, affecting thousands of Indian students. This policy shift includes plans for enhanced social media vetting of international students, creating additional barriers for Indian applicants seeking US education. Indians make up the highest number of foreign students in the US and are most affected by this policy decision of the Trump administration.

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