How Trump’s Tariffs and the Ukraine War is Uniting India and China
In a striking twist of geopolitical irony, Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs and incendiary rhetoric have nudged two dynamic Asian adversaries India and China onto an unexpectedly shared strategic path. Long locked in icy standoffs over border clashes, trade disputes, and regional dominance, New Delhi and Beijing now find themselves united in defiance against Washington’s punitive trade measures and its polarising stance on the Ukraine conflict.
Trump’s decision to impose a staggering 50% tariff on Indian imports, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil, was accompanied by acerbic remarks branding both India and Russia as “dead economies.” India has responded with forceful clarity, not only condemning the move as “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” but calling out Washington’s hypocrisy as other major importers of Russian energy, such as China and several EU nations, escape similar penalties. According to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), China was the largest buyer of Russian oil in 2024, importing $62.6 billion worth – compared to India’s $52.7 billion. Yet Trump’s criticism has disproportionately targeted India, ignoring China’s larger role. The report also debunks Trump’s claim that India is “buying massive amounts of Russian oil and selling it on the open market for big profits.” In reality, India is a net importer of crude oil and exports refined petroleum products, standard practice among energy-importing nations.
Adding fuel to the fire, Trump unveiled a new energy partnership with Pakistan, offering it a lower tariff rate of 19% and U.S. support to develop its purportedly vast oil reserves. The timing and optics of this move were stark, signalling a potential reshuffling of South Asian strategic priorities and further straining US-India relations.
Also read: Something’s Gotta Give: Few Options on the Negotiating Table as India and Modi Are Cornered by Trump
And in a remarkable shift, China, often at odds with India over border tensions and strategic influence expressed solidarity with New Delhi stating, “India’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.” Chinese ambassador Xu Feihong went further, calling Trump a “bully” and cautioning, “Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile.”
Both India and China have resisted Western pressure to halt Russian energy imports, citing national interest and energy security. This rare convergence of tone and interest between Beijing and New Delhi marks a significant recalibration in Asian diplomacy. China even extended its support to Brazil, similarly targeted by the tariffs, hinting at a broader BRICS alignment against US trade aggression.
India and China are revving diplomatic engagement. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, his first trip there in seven years. The Mansarovar Yatra has resumed, visa restrictions have eased, and symbolic gestures of détente are beginning to surface.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi is expected to hold talks with national security advisor Ajit Doval on August 18, under the Special Representative Mechanism, a platform for dialogue on boundary issues and broader geopolitical developments. The upcoming SCO Tianjin Summit, scheduled for August 31 to September 1, is poised to be the largest in scale since the organisation’s inception.
India’s pivot toward China must transcend mere reaction to US pressure – it should embody a deliberate and strategic recalibration of its foreign policy priorities. The bilateral trade exceeded $100 billion for the third consecutive year and reached an impressive $118.4 billion in FY24. But it remains structurally imbalanced – India’s exports to China fell by 14.5%, while imports surged by 11.5%, widening the trade deficit to a formidable $99.2 billion. The current thaw in bilateral relations offers a timely and strategic opening for New Delhi to renegotiate the terms of trade toward a more equitable framework. As economic interdependence deepens, a meaningful diplomatic convergence between India and China grounded in strategic pragmatism becomes imperative.
Also read: As US Steps Back From Tariff War With China, What You Need to Know
Beyond Trump's intractable tariff standoff, the lack of anti-Pakistan messaging in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack from the Quad members reflects the realities of international diplomacy, where nations prioritise their own strategic interests over collective security commitments. The absence of support from ‘strategic partners’ underscores the limitations of multilateral alliances when it comes to addressing India’s security concerns.
The West’s projection of India as a counterweight to China serves its own strategic narrative, while India’s immediate imperatives lie in de-escalating tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), advancing counterterrorism initiatives, and securing access to rare earth exports critical to its technological and economic ambitions. India must recalibrate its foreign policy and consider engaging directly with China, not as a concession, but as a pragmatic move to advance its sovereign interests.
The Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral co-founded by India in 2001, may find renewed strategic relevance as a counterbalance to Western dominance in global affairs. Though India and China remain divided by longstanding border disputes, the trilateral’s institutionalisation rests on two enduring pillars: the robust Beijing-Moscow partnership and the time-tested New Delhi-Moscow ties. In light of shifting geopolitical dynamics, India would do well to accord RIC the same strategic priority it lately reserved for the Quad, perhaps even more. While divergences persist among the three on certain security matters, their shared interest in resisting external coercion, offers fertile ground for cooperation.
United by a common desire to prevent Asia from becoming a stage for Western grandstanding, RIC presents a compelling framework for regional dialogue and multipolar engagement. The Ukraine crisis and Trump-era tariff confrontations have inadvertently created space for India and China to soften their positions, and both must now seize this moment to deepen collaboration within the RIC architecture. In this evolving landscape, Russia emerges as a trusted intermediary. Western unease over this emerging alignment is understandable, for the RIC dynamic, shaped by recent global disruptions, emerges as the nucleus of both the SCO and BRICS, transcending bilateral tensions and fostering strategic convergence.
Vaishali Basu Sharma is a strategic and economic affairs analyst.
This article went live on August thirteenth, two thousand twenty five, at forty-four minutes past one in the afternoon.The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.
