India Missed Priority Trade Deal Window as Modi Did Not Call Trump, Lutnick Says

New Delhi: United States Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick has stated that India failed to secure a priority trade agreement in early 2025 because prime minister Narendra Modi did not personally call President Donald Trump to close the deal.

In an interview with the All-In Podcast, Lutnick described a negotiation environment where the administration provided India with a specific deadline of "three Fridays" to reach an agreement. 

The Ministry of External Affairs has contested the accuracy of Lutnick's account. Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal responded to the commerce secretary's remarks, stating that the characterisation of the trade discussions was “not accurate”.

"India and the US were committed to negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with the US as far back as 13 February last year," Jaiswal said at the weekly briefing on Friday.

"Since then, the two sides have held multiple rounds of negotiation to arrive at a balanced and mutually beneficial trade agreement.
On several occasions, we have been close to a deal."

Jaiswal emphasised India's continued interest in reaching an agreement. "We remain interested in a mutually beneficial trade deal between two complementary economies and look forward to concluding it," he added. The spokesperson also clarified the level of engagement between the two leaders, noting that "Prime Minister [Modi] and President Trump have also spoken on phone on 8 occasions during 2025, covering different aspects of our wide-ranging partnership."

'Staircase' model

Lutnick explained that the administration employs a "staircase" model for trade negotiations where the first country to sign receives the most favourable terms. "First stair gets the best deal," Lutnick said. "You can't get the best deal after the first guy went". 

The United Kingdom moved first and established the base rate for subsequent deals. Lutnick noted that while he had negotiated the contracts and "set the whole deal up," the final step required a direct conversation between the two leaders. "I said, 'You gotta have Modi... call the president'," he recounted. "They were uncomfortable doing it. So Modi didn't call".

Incidentally, India had been among the earliest countries to begin trade talks with the United States in February last year during the visit of prime minister Narendra Modi to Washington.

Lutnick said that once India missed the deadline, the administration proceeded with other countries. “So that Friday left,” he said, referring to the final Friday in India’s three-week window. He then placed the sequence clearly, adding that “middle of the next week” the United States announced trade frameworks with Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, followed by Malaysia.

Because these agreements were reached after the staircase had already "ascended," they were finalised at higher rates than what had been initially offered to India.

'Then, not now'

The secretary revealed that India continues to seek the specific favourable terms that were available earlier in the negotiation cycle. "Now when they say, 'But what I want is...I want the deal between the UK and Vietnam, because that's what I negotiated'," Lutnick said. He emphasised that while India maintains the administration had previously agreed to those terms, the offer had been time-sensitive. "I said, 'Then. Then. Not now, then'," Lutnick stated.

When Indian representatives later indicated they were ready to proceed, Lutnick informed them that the train had already departed. "I said, 'Ready for what'?" Lutnick said.

"I go, 'You're ready for the train that left the station three weeks ago'?". He noted that India is now "further in the back of the line" as the administration focuses on other bilateral priorities. Lutnick attributed the delay to the complexities of "deep internal politics" and the challenges of obtaining approvals within different governmental systems.

Public announcements and media reports map Lutnick's anecdote precisely to mid-2025, reconciling his internal US deadlines with Indian optimism that ultimately fizzled. 

The United Kingdom’s rollout on Thursday, May 8, marked what Lutnick described as the “first stair.” Roughly six weeks later, toward late June, the three-Friday window for India came into effect, covering June 20, June 27, July 4, and concluding on July 11.

According to Lutnick’s telling, the absence of a final Modi “closer” call by that last Friday triggered the shift to other partners, with Indonesia’s framework deal announced the following Tuesday, July 15.

Vietnam had earlier finalised its framework on July 2 at a 20% rate, while the Philippines concluded its agreement on July 22 following a Trump-Marcos meeting, also at 19%. Lutnick described these announcements as a “whole bunch of deals” that moved ahead once India missed its window.

Even as Trump extended a suspension on "reciprocal" tariffs on July 7 till August 1, he told reporters that “we're close to making a deal with India”.

The following day, July 8, Indian government sources briefed domestic media that a “mini trade deal” announcement was expected that night. Trump again said the United States was “close to making a deal with India,” but no announcement followed.

During this period, Modi had a supposedly tense call with Trump on June 18, in which he sought to correct Trump’s repeated public claims of having brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following four days of clashes.

A December 2025 filing under the Foreign Agents Registration Act by India’s hired lobbying firm, SHW Advisors, shows that after a limited number of calls in May and June, outreach on “India trade conversations” intensified in July and August, though on specific dates.

The filings show two calls placed on Saturday, July 12, one to Lutnick and another to United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. After that, there was no recorded outreach until July 30, the day Trump announced an additional tariff on India over purchases of Russian oil. From August 27, the total tariff on Indian goods imported by United States stood at 50%, one of the highest rates in the world.

Trade negotiations between India and the United States have continued into 2026 but remain stalled over several key issues, with January being viewed as a decisive month for sealing a deal. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer had observed last month that the US had concluded deals with a slew of other partners while negotiations with India, which began in February 2025, still haven't resulted in an agreement.

Discussions slowed significantly during the December holiday period. A visiting American delegation headed by Deputy USTR Rick Switzer held meetings in New Delhi in mid-December, though officials familiar with the matter say the visit yielded minimal progress. Indian negotiators anticipate renewed momentum once the new year festivities conclude.

Agricultural market access continues to present the biggest challenge. Washington seeks entry for American soybeans and corn, but New Delhi has declined given that most US production involves genetic modification, which Indian regulations prohibit. Dairy imports represent another contentious area.

During a December press briefing on separate trade matters, Union commerce minister Piyush Goyal emphasised India's longstanding refusal to liberalise dairy across all its trade pacts.

Bilateral trade between the two countries totalled $131.84 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2025, with Indian exports accounting for $86.5 billion. The United States remains India's top export destination despite the recent tariff increases.

Note: This report has been updated with the MEA's response.

The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.