New Delhi: There are signs that another strategic Indian Ocean Island nation is gearing up for a leadership change, as Mauritius polls end today, November 10. But for India, this time, unlike with the Maldives and Sri Lanka, there is not much anxiety over a change in outlook if the opposition gets power.
In the past year, two of India’s maritime neighbours, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, elected new leaders – leftist Anura Dissanayake in Colombo and ‘pro-China’ Mohamed Muizzu in Malé. Relations with the Maldives were a learning curve before two presidential visits to India brought a measure of temperance. With Sri Lanka, ties have remained stable, although the future of the Adani renewable power project remains uncertain.
In contrast, South Block is rather sanguine over the Mauritius election, despite the likelihood of the opposition coalition gaining ground.
Over a million voters were eligible to cast their ballots in the Mauritian general elections to directly elect 62 of the 70 members of parliament. The remaining eight seats are allocated by the election commission using the ‘best loser’ system, which ensures fair ethnic representation. The results will be known after counting starts on Monday, November 11.
After securing two consecutive victories in past general elections, the ruling Militant Socialist Movement (MSM), led by Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, entered the 2024 campaign as part of a new coalition, Alliance Lepep, alongside the Parti Mauricien Social Démocrate (PMSD).
Pravind Jugnauth and S. Jaishankar. Photo: Twitter/@KumarJugnauth
On the opposition side, the main contender is the Alliance du Changement, comprising former prime minister Navin Ramgoolam’s Parti Travailliste (PTr) and Paul Bérenger’s Mouvement Militant Mauricien (MMM). This coalition also includes Nouveau Democrats, a party formed by former PMSD leaders who did not want to go over to the ruling bloc after their organisation exited the opposition alliance in April this year.
There are clear signs of the opposition making notable advances in the elections. Sources informed The Wire that the ruling bloc is contending with strong anti-incumbency headwinds.
Additionally, questions remain about whether Xavier-Luc Duval can successfully mobilise his largely Creole PMSD supporters to help sustain the Jugnauth government.
The ruling bloc’s campaign also took a hit after a YouTube channel called ‘Missie Moustass’ began releasing a series of allegedly private phone conversations involving prominent political figures in Mauritius from mid-October onward.
The name ‘Missie Moustass’ references the 2022 surveillance scandal, which erupted after Sherry Singh, the former head of Mauritius Telecom, accused prime minister Jugnauth of circumventing legal processes to allow an Indian ‘technical team’ to allegedly install a device designed to monitor internet traffic at the landing station of a transcontinental submarine fibre optic cable.
The recordings featured all major political figures, though they primarily cast the government in a negative light. One clip involved the police chief allegedly suggesting the alteration of a post-mortem report for an individual who died in police custody.
In response, the government arrested Sherry Singh and others, even levying terrorism charges against them. It also imposed a blanket social media ban until November 11, after the elections. Prime Minister Jugnauth argued that there were “reasons to believe our country has been a victim of a cyber-terrorist attack at the local level,” though the restrictions were lifted within 24 hours after a public outcry.
A rival ‘leak’ emerged last week when a TikTok account ‘Anonym Moris’ purported to publish phone calls that targeted the opposition leaders.
While the British High Commissioner appeared in one of the clips, the Indian envoy – who is an active diplomatic figure – was not featured, much to New Delhi’s relief.
However, the final batch of ‘leaked’ conversations – which allegedly included Kobita Jugnauth, the prime minister’s wife – directly referenced Indian High Commissioner Nandini Singla. Sources asserted that that the recordings suggest the Indian diplomat maintained neutrality, with Kobita Jugnauth reportedly expressing frustration over Singla’s meeting with opposition leader Ramgoolam.
Another portion reportedly featured Jugnauth instructing the head of the state broadcaster to avoid focusing cameras on the Indian High Commissioner during a public event, as reported by Le Express. Prime minister Jugnauth had said their voices had been digitally manipulated.
India has maintained strong ties with Mauritius, strategically located in the Indian Ocean, since the island nation’s independence, largely due to the significant Indian-origin population, which traces its roots back to the indentured labourers brought during colonial times. A sign of the closeness is the fact that Mauritius government’s national security advisor has been a retired Indian security official nominated by New Delhi.
Mauritius had been the chief source for foreign investment to India till 2017-18, but it gave up the top spot to Singapore after the revision of the tax treaty. From April 2000 to March 2024, Mauritius accounted for 25% of total foreign direct investment to India at $171.84 billion.
During the last 10 years, Pravind Jugnauth has fostered a perception of special personal ties with the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. During the Ayodhya temple inauguration in January this year, Mauritius had even given two hours of break to “public officers of Hindu faith” to take part in religious functions.
Even if the opposition alliance wins the election, New Delhi does not expect any changes in Port Louis’ policies towards India.
The Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar had visited Mauritius in July this year, and met with top opposition Mauritian politicians, including Ramgoolam and Berenger.
Navin Ramgoolam with S. Jaishankar. Photo: X/@Ramgoolam_Dr
Officials point out that during the COVID-19 pandemic, India had chartered a plane to fly a critically ill Ramgoolam to Delhi’s AIIMS for treatment. He reportedly brought it up in a conversation with the Indian foreign minister, observing that India “saved” his life.
While there had been some muted concern in previous years about India’s development of Agalega island earlier, the issue has not surfaced at all during the current election campaign. This contrasts sharply with the outcome of India’s earlier attempt to develop Assumption Island in neighbouring Seychelles, which faced intense local opposition and was ultimately abandoned.
The Mauritian general election also takes place against the backdrop of the UK’s recent decision to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius, with the condition that the US military base on Diego Garcia will remain. This decision follows a lengthy international legal battle over the islands.
However, implementing this agreement may depend on the outcome of another election. With Donald Trump back in the White House, uncertainty looms over whether the new US administration will allow the UK’s Labour government to proceed with ceding control of Chagos.
