Rahul Bedi 
Chandigarh: As political and diplomatic tensions between India and the United States grow, there is a peculiar optimism in New Delhi that incoming President Donald Trump’s transactional and unpredictable approach to statecraft might miraculously resolve —or at least mitigate — these challenges.
This hope is fuelled by the much-celebrated “bromance” between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President-elect Trump, which many view as a potential “magic bullet” to address issues like India’s alleged involvement in Sikh separatist leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun’s planned assassination in New York last year and the ongoing criminal proceedings in a U.S. federal court against businessman Gautam Adani for bribery and fraud.
Indian diplomats and security officials have latched onto the notion that Trump – “sada banda” (“our man”) in the White House – will manage these matters in India’s favour. Some also hope he will degrade – or even revoke – US support for Canada in its dispute with the Modi government over allegations of India’s role in the killing of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia last June.
Trump’s disdain for Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is well-documented, leading many Indian officials to believe that this animosity could work to their advantage, despite Canada’s close alliance with the US as a NATO member and a participant in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing coalition.
Closer to home, India faces challenges regarding ousted Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina, whose extradition is being sought by Dhaka’s interim government, perceived by the Modi government to be backed by the US. There is also growing certainty among Indian officials that Trump’s deal-making tendencies might lead to less scrutiny of India’s record on human rights and religious freedoms.
Trump’s transactional worldview, as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel highlights in her forthcoming biography Freedom, is shaped by his background as a real estate developer. Merkel’s book, published recently in extracts by Germany’s Die Zeit, portrays Trump as driven by a “winner-or-loser” mentality, prioritising his own interests regardless of consequences. She also notes his emotional nature and admiration for authoritarian leaders.
Experts have echoed similar sentiments. Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center and Walter Ladwig of King’s College London told Al Jazeera earlier this month that a Trump-Modi rapport could strengthen bilateral ties. They suggested Trump’s return to the White House might lead to fewer concerns about India’s democratic backsliding or minority rights while also easing pressure on New Delhi to distance itself from Moscow, given Trump’s affinity for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Adding to the optimism among BJP leaders, officials, and media pundits is the appointment of several “pro-India” figures to Trump’s expected cabinet. These include Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, and Tulsi Gabbard as the US intelligence chief – all of whom are seen as favourable to India.
Rubio and Waltz are known for their strong stance against China and support for India. Rubio introduced the US-India Defense Cooperation Act in 2023 to bolster bilateral security ties in response to China’s aggression. Waltz, during Modi’s 2023 visit to Washington, emphasised the importance of formalising a US-India alliance to counter China and combat ‘Islamic terrorism’. Gabbard, a Hindu, has supported Modi’s initiatives, including establishing International Yoga Day.
“Delhi always seemed more comfortable with a second Trump term than a Harris presidency, which would have emphasised values-driven foreign policy,” Chietigj Bajpaee, senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House, wrote recently in The Diplomat. He argued that not even Kamala Harris’s Indian ancestry could rival the Trump-Modi camaraderie demonstrated at the “Howdy Modi” and “Namaste Trump” events during Trump’s previous term.
Both leaders, Bajpaee noted, share a worldview rooted in strongman politics, mutual concerns about China and radical Islam, disdain for liberal media, economic nationalism, and a foreign policy dictated by self-interest.
Lisa Curtis, a former U.S. National Security Council official, also expects Trump to “pick up where he left off with India.” Speaking to PTI, she described Trump as having goodwill toward India, presenting an opportunity to strengthen ties further.
But what might Trump expect in return? The possibilities span trade, security, and diplomacy, all viewed through Trump’s deal-making prism. Analysts suggest that military sales could play a role in negotiations. For instance, reports suggest Washington could revive the sale of the NASAMS-2 missile defence system, sidelined after India opted for Russia’s S-400 Triumf systems in 2018. The U.S. might also leverage its demand for a naval base on India’s coastline to counter China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean Region—a request Delhi has historically resisted.
Additionally, the U.S. Navy’s recent repair agreements with Indian shipyards signal deeper military cooperation, albeit without formal alliances. Whether India’s vulnerability in the Pannun and Adani cases will compel it to make concessions remains uncertain.
Ultimately, any rapprochement will hinge on the pragmatism and self-interest of both Trump and Modi, leaders who prioritise political and economic gain above all else.