Watch | What Was the Purpose of Modi's Informal Summit With Putin?

Highlights from the interview:

India Russia special relationship

The India-Russia special relationship is a part of the historical process stretching now for almost 50-60 years. During the 1950s and 60s, India was in an isolated position in world politics. As a newly-independent post-colonial country, India sought to develop a partnership with other developing countries through the Non-Aligned Movement. Russia (as the Soviet Union) was the only great power of that time which provided the assistance needed for developing India’s economic infrastructure unlike the US, Britain and other Western countries. The Soviet help during the 1950s and 1960s resulted in India transforming and developing its steel, iron-ore plants and many sectors in science and technology, nuclear research etc.

But currently things have changed over the years, we are not in a totally new phase where India is also seeing itself as a major power.

The Indo-Soviet ties have evolved as a strong political-strategic partnership over the decades. Historically, India and Russia have not had and ‘conflict of interest’ and have shared similar views on most of the issues in world politics be it the issue of war in West Asia, unilateral interventions, regime changes etc. Russia supported India through its worst periods, for example during India’s war with China and despite Soviet’s alignment with China, Russia chose to remain neutral.

Similarly, during India’s war with Pakistan and during the creation of Bangladesh, India received a great deal of assistance from Russia (Soviet Union) in the form of major Indo-Soviet strategic tie up. The role of ‘soft power’ has been important in developing India’s relation with Russia. For example, the interest in Indian culture, cinema within Russia, the exchange of students and training for scientists and doctors etc.

Further, both India and Russia do not support unilateral imposition of sanctions. Looking back in history, Russia had supported India despite imposition of US sanctions post-1998 Pokhran tests. Russia was the only country in the world which continued to supply key nuclear energy plants to India.

Informal summit in Sochi, Russia (May 2018)

An informal summit allows for a discussion of issues that cannot be discussed in formal summits and sets the context for a formal summit. Due to changing alignments, both India and Russia needed an informal summit meeting in order to “reassure” and for “confidence building” efforts.

Some issues pertaining to ‘third countries’ needed discussion to reassure each other of historical ties. The summit has to be seen in context of the past decade, in which India appeared to be drifting towards the US. From India’s perspective, there were worries of closer ties between Russia and China; Russia’s improved ties with Pakistan and Russia’s position on Afghanistan wherein the Russians considered speaking to the Taliban. Thus, there were concerns on both sides and these concerns did not form the part of any formal agenda in the past, hence the informal summit.

Other reasons include the imposition of unilateral sanctions by the US on Russia after the alleged Chemical weapon attack in Syria which has not been proven yet. The threat of sanctions under the CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) risk hurting Indo-Russia defence and energy relations and are aimed at bending international trade in the favour of the US by making developing countries like India and Vietnam dependent on US arms, energy and oil exports etc.

Thus, the Indian foreign ministry has been smart enough to understand these American intentions and therefore Prime Minister Modi made a good decision to visit Russia for an informal summit with President Putin at this time. In resisting these sanctions, there are high stakes for both Russia and India. For example, for Russia, the sanctions would harm its military-industrial complex in cities like St. Petersburg. For India, there are orders worth $12 billion at risk, and out of it $4.5 billion is on the S-400 air defence system.

Hence, the US sanctions impact not just Russia but they risk undermining India’s strategic interests as well. Although over the years India has tried to diversify its defence and dependence on Russia (from previous 80% to the 62% at present) but even at 62%, it’s a huge amount invested in complete defence platforms.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and India’s stand on it

There have been debates that President Putin of Russia runs a totalitarian regime in Russia and his actions in Ukraine and Crimea are proof of his expansionist intentions. But one must remember that President Putin has brought together a Russian state which was on the verge of disintegration at the end of the Cold War and continued during the presidency of Boris Yeltsin in the early 1990s.

Russia faced problems in its regions of Chechnya and Ingushetia and parts of the Caucasus, which demanded independence from Russia, but President Putin, using political, economic and military means arrested this disintegration. He provided the Russian people with a lot of benefits that they had lost earlier. Thus, for President Putin, the biggest threat for Russia is not the US but Russia’s own demographic decline, hence his insecurities must be understood accordingly.

President Putin in his efforts to build a strong Russia renationalised the energy sector and didn’t allow the defence and energy sectors to private entities. He maintains a strong grip over the media and still manages to maintain a high level of popularity among the Russian people with independent polls suggesting that 82% people support Putin.

As far as Ukraine and Crimea are concerned. Ukraine has always been highly dependent on Russian energy. Crimea was part of Russia historically which was gifted to Ukraine in 1954 and ethnically there is large number of Russians staying in Crimea. But the regime in Ukraine was a right-wing fascist regime which had issues with the Russian language, Russian ethnic groups etc. Therefore, the people of Crimea wanted to go back to Russia and Russia was too happy to assist. It was the forceful imposition of Ukrainian nationalism over people of Crimea that turn ethnic Russian speaking people toward Russia.

India’s position has been very clear in supporting Russia’s action in Crimea. The official statement from India was that “Russia was right on Crimea issue”. India saw it as a very clear and specific case in the history of international politics.

India-Russia defence partnership and emerging problems

We must understand that in a multi-polar world, you don’t have to be necessarily linked with one pole only. A country can have relationships with multiple partners in various sectors without alienating others. For e.g. China, which has a very high volume of trade with US but at the same time they are a strategic partner of Russia. They can balance both perfectly. India needs to do that as well (taking clues from China).

There are also political issues involved in defence partnership between India and Russia. Many defence experts in India argue that we need to diversify our defence imports, which is a correct argument but one needs to look at the cost factor as well (Rafael deal was criticised for its cost). We know that the MIGs are a better deal for us, but for political reasons, we went for the Rafael. I think military experts need to be consulted on arms imports and we must have transparency in such deals. Thus, finding a right ‘mix’ is important. It is not always about ‘diversification’ but also about politics.

Russia’s sale of weapons to China vis-à-vis India

The Russian claim is that they are not supplying the same type of weapons to both India and China. In fact, they are supplying far more superior weapons to India as compared to China. Also, over the years, China has emerged as the biggest manufacturer of arms and their reliance on Russian weapons has decreased dramatically. Nonetheless, the Chinese are still getting a lot of sophisticated weaponry especially nuclear submarines from Russia. This was one of the issues discussed at the informal summit.

There is also evidence that Russia has played an important role in de-escalation of tensions between India and China in the past, especially during the Doklam crisis because good relations between India and China are in the favour of Russia.

Russia-Pakistan relationship

Over the years, Pakistan has emerged as a client state for Russia. China has been one of the key factors in putting some pressure on Russia to have negotiations with Pakistan. One of the primary reasons for Russia’s new engagement with Pakistan is the issue of ‘terrorism’.

For Russia, terrorism in Central Asia, in Afghanistan, in Chechnya has been a major source of concern. Along with terrorism, there are other grave issues such as drug and trafficking. For all these issues, Russians need to talk, engage and put pressure on Pakistan. India need not only see this increasing engagement between Russia and Pakistan as a threat. This could be an opportunity to actually use Russia to put pressure on China to rein in Pakistan which is essentially a rogue state now vis-a-vie India.

China’s BRI project and Russia

Russia has been asking India to consider joining BRI and shed its hesitation concerning sovereignty issues around the BRI project – the argument being that some specific contested issues must not overshadow the whole project. Russia has been talking about North-South Corridor connectivity with India for years but India has not moved fast enough on these issues. There has been a lot of talk about it over the last 20 years in every bilateral meeting, but not enough initiative has been taken by India on the ground. Thus, it’s only natural that the Russians are participating in the BRI wholeheartedly.

India-Russia relations post-Sochi summit:

The Sochi summit was very important. India’s relations with Russia allow for strategic autonomy in its foreign policy. The US only believes in a client-state relationship. For India, ‘multi-alignment’ is the key to drive its independent foreign policy which also reflects India’s plurality. India must not let its old allies drift away and understand the true costs of aligning with the US. This is not to say that the US is not be engaged with, but learn from the Chinese in maintaining deep economic/military engagement with the US while retaining its strategic partnership with the Russians.

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