Managing Donald Trump’s wildly erratic behaviour poses tricky challenges. On one recent occasion, he changed his views in ways that benefited India. But in a second incident, his contradictory statements caused confusion and frustration in New Delhi. India’s leaders have put a grimly positive face on that, but on other fronts, dangers remain.

India can take satisfaction from the first of Trump’s recent mood swings. Prime Minister Narendra Modi saw it from ringside seat. Trump arrived at the G7 conference in Canada and immediately avoided the usual niceties by complaining loudly.

He was furious about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s exclusion from that meeting – from what used to be the G8, until Putin was disinvited because he had invaded Ukraine. Trump said that this was grossly unfair because Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy was actually responsible for the outbreak of the war.

This was of course a fantasy, one of many from Trump. But it reversed the blame game that we had recently heard from him. He had been angered when he saw Putin dragging his feet on American sponsored negotiations with Ukraine. This should have been no surprise, but Trump was naive enough to believe that he could persuade Putin to end the war (another fantasy). Trump saw his unlikely hopes of a Nobel Peace Prize vanishing, so he lashed out at the Russian leader.

He vowed to get tough not just with Putin but with his enablers. He said that countries that had facilitated Russian exports of oil would be hit with 500% tariffs. That mainly meant China and India.

Trump's claims about tariffs and India-Pakistan conflict

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, India had bought over $125 billion worth or Russian oil. If New Delhi had been forced to stop such imports, severe damage would have been done to its finances and its energy security. A 500% tariff would also have exploded Indo-American relations, which Modi has worked hard to improve.

His government offered no visible reaction to Trump’s threat. It apparently saw this as just another bombastic spasm from the American President. It was impossible to deny those oil purchases. The Biden administration had ignored them because it saw India as a valuable counterweight to China. Indian leaders reckoned that if they gave Trump time to reconsider, he would simmer down and change his tune. So New Delhi remained largely silent.

Most of the Indian media followed suit. Little was said about the 500% bombshell. Leading Indian economists whose private analyses this writer has seen also disregarded this threat. They believed that this was just another of Trump’s chaotic pronouncements on tariffs. He would, in time, resume talks about a trade pact with India. And more to the point, his anger with Putin – and thus with India as an enabler – would eventually subside.

Trump’s pro-Putin comments at the G7 in Canada showed that to be true. New Delhi was right to wait him out. But that did not mean that Indo-American relations will now be untroubled.

A second incident was more worrying. On June 18, after weeks of claiming credit for ending the Indo-Pakistan conflict, Trump did an about face. After a telephone call with Modi, who forcefully argued that it was Indian and Pakistani leaders who made the decision to halt the fighting, Trump – at first – suggested that they and not he deserved the credit for this.

That appeared to be a major gain for India whose leaders have insisted for half a century that relations with Pakistan were a strictly bilateral affair. Third parties had no role. But then Trump reversed himself yet again. On that same day, after praising Modi and Pakistan’s Asim Munir for their wise restraint, he concluded by claiming credit: “I got it stopped”.

This statement was almost certainly false, a product of his narcissistic imaginings. Rather than challenging it, India’s frustrated leaders were forced to keep silent. In time, they could continue insisting that interactions with Pakistan remained bilateral. But this incident showed how risky their dealings with this capricious President will be.

Despite claims of Modi's 'strong personal chemistry with Trump', there are reasons to worry

The Indian government had warmly welcomed Trump’s return to power. They recalled Modi’s strong personal chemistry with him during the President’s first term in office – celebrated in their joint appearances before enthusiastic crowds in Gujarat and Texas. And after all, personal ties strongly influence Trump’s perceptions of other nations.

But so far, there are reasons to worry. India should be concerned about inattention from Washington and from Trump. He has not even named an ambassador to New Delhi. He has also failed to nominate envoys to a large number of countries, but in most cases they are far less important than India.

There are also unresolved problems that could undermine good relations. Flights returning Indians in chains have caused offence, and then there are tariffs. Trump has repeatedly complained that India has erected higher tariff barriers than any other major economy. He made these comments in his usual fitful, rambling way. But this may be a lingering problem, despite signals from New Delhi that it will be flexible.

There is also detailed evidence from the F.B.I. supporting a criminal charge that the Indian authorities were involved in an attempt in 2023 to murder an American citizen – a Sikh separatist – on American soil. A trial of the accused will begin in New York in November. The Trump administration has apparently not yet raised this issue with India, but it remains a potentially serious irritant.

It is unwise to expect smooth sailing with Trump.

James Manor is emeritus professor of commonwealth studies in the School of Advanced Study, University of London.

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