Kamal Dev Bhattarai 
Nepal Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli will be paying an official visit to China in the first week of December, multiple sources at the Prime Minister’s Office and Ministry of Foreign Affairs have confirmed.
If this visit materialises, it will mark a departure from the longstanding practice of new Nepali prime ministers choosing India as their first foreign destination, with a few exceptions for multilateral events.
Advisors close to Oli have indicated he had hoped to uphold the tradition, but that New Delhi is yet to extend a formal invitation even four months after the formation of his government. The delay suggests a possible shift in India’s approach. Typically, Nepal’s prime ministers receive an invitation from New Delhi shortly after assuming office.
According to sources, China has proposed December 2-6 as a window for Oli’s visit. Though the prime minister’s secretariat is leaking the dates of Oli’s China visit, Oli himself has not spoken publicly about it.
Officials report that preparations are underway for the Beijing visit, with discussions on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) expected to top the agenda.
Nepal has proposed four projects to China under the BRI framework, and both sides are reportedly working on an implementation plan that could be finalised during Oli’s visit.
Within Nepal’s ruling coalition, there are differences on the BRI – foreign minister Arzu Rana Deuba of the Nepali Congress initially sought more public debate on the initiative, but has since softened her stance, now acknowledging the BRI as an established aspect of Nepal-China cooperation.
The resumption of a joint military drill between Nepal and China, previously halted due to COVID-19, underscores the warming ties under Oli’s administration.
During a recent UN General Assembly session in New York, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi assured Oli of China’s continued support for Nepal’s sovereignty and development path. This builds on the strategic agreements forged during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2019 visit to Nepal, when Oli was in power leading a communist government.
Although former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s visit to Beijing last year ended without finalising key BRI agreements, China remains eager to advance these initiatives with Nepal under Oli’s administration.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Photo: X/@cmprachanda.
Last year, then-Prime Minister Dahal visited Beijing but returned without signing any major agreements, including those related to the BRI. In recent years, it has become evident that China is pushing for a stronger, united communist government in Nepal.
Even as Oli prepares for his visit to Beijing, foreign minister Deuba has yet to receive an invitation from Chinese officials. Publicly, Deuba has stated that she would visit Beijing if invited.
While Oli has yet to receive an invitation from New Delhi, engagement between India and Nepal has intensified across multiple levels. In September, Oli met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, marking their first in-person meeting since Oli’s government took office in July.
According to India’s readout, the two leaders “reviewed the unique and close bilateral relationship between India and Nepal” and expressed satisfaction with progress across areas such as development partnership, hydropower cooperation, people-to-people ties and advancements in physical, digital and energy connectivity.
The statement also noted that Nepal remained a priority partner for India under its Neighbourhood First Policy, with this meeting reinforcing the tradition of regular high-level exchanges between the two countries.
The Nepali side, however, did not release a statement on the discussion.
Following the meeting, Oli posted on X, describing it as fruitful and noting that various bilateral issues were covered. There was no indication that he had received an invitation to visit India as is usually extended, given the unofficial convention of India being the destination for the first foreign visit of a new Nepali prime minister.
Recently, senior cabinet members of the Oli-led government, such as health minister Pradeep Poudel and energy minister Dipak Khadka visited New Delhi, where they met their Indian counterparts and other Indian leaders.
There is now discussion around a potential visit by Modi to Nepal. During her official visit to India in August, foreign minister Deuba delivered an invitation from Oli for Modi to visit Nepal. However, Modi’s visit may be delayed or postponed due to Oli’s planned trip to China.
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India’s statement noted that Modi accepted the invitation and the dates were to be finalised through diplomatic channels. Since then, Deuba has publicly mentioned on multiple occasions that preparations were underway for Modi’s visit to Nepal.
The relationship between Oli and New Delhi must be viewed in light of several bilateral issues on which India has taken a firm stance. In 2016, during Oli’s earlier term as prime minister, the two countries established the Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG) to advise both governments on reviewing their bilateral ties, including the 1950 Treaty.
The report submitted by the EPG in 2018 is gathering dust and Oli since becoming prime minister in July is continuously raising the EGP issue. Apart from the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), major political factions such as the Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) led by Dahal, and Madhes-based parties appear to have set aside the EPG agenda.
Oli has repeatedly expressed optimism that the Indian prime minister will find time to receive the report. He has also revived the boundary dispute that arose between the two countries in 2019-20, an issue which Dahal’s previous government avoided, aiming to preserve the improving relationship between Nepal and India.
Oli’s government has yet to establish a clear foreign policy framework, including its stance toward India and China. From the outset, he has emphasised, seemingly with reference to India, his desire for cordial relations with neighbouring countries with the expectation of mutual respect.
Last week, the coalition government released a joint commitment and policy pledge addressing foreign policy and international relations, though the document remains vague and lacks specifics.
The document outlined that bilateral issues with neighbouring and friendly countries will be addressed in a spirit of good neighbourliness and diplomatic engagement. Nepal was committed to upholding the principles of the UN Charter, the Panchsheel doctrine and the values of world peace, as well as maintaining a just, independent, neutral and non-aligned foreign policy, it said.
The document further said: “Nepal will focus on its development needs, and through economic diplomacy, it will seek to increase foreign assistance and develop strong economic partnerships with neighbouring and friendly nations, as well as multilateral development partners.”
The prime minister continues to raise the contentious border dispute but has been less vocal compared to the past, emphasising the need to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels rather than publicly speak about it.
However, his foreign minister, who is from the Nepali Congress, did not raise those issues during her official visit to New Delhi.
Both New Delhi and Washington will closely watch Oli’s Beijing visit and possible agreements between the two countries.