No Hurdles, ‘Fantastic Progress’: Has Piyush Goyal Been Misleading Indians on US Trade Deal?

If one were to listen only to Union commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal, it would likely appear that all is hunky-dory in the India-US trade talks. His statements have made it seem like an alternate reality exists – one where India isn’t being constantly threatened and then struck with higher tariffs by the Donald Trump administration. 

As the minister responsible for trade, and one who has actively participated in the talks, taking his word as final on the matter might seem like the right way to go – because if he doesn’t know what’s really going on, who does? But unfortunately, the fact that most Indian goods are already facing a 25% tariff in the US market and will see another 25% ‘penalty’ hike if things continue as they are has snapped the Indian public out of Goyal’s created dreamland. While the exemption on pharmaceuticals and smartphones has provided some respite, several labour-intensive sectors could be severely affected by this new tariff regime.

Reports on his latest speech on the matter – at the Business Today India@100 Summit on August 8 – suggested that he too was finally coming to terms with what’s really going on, with headlines quoting him as saying that India “won’t bow to anyone”. However, his full speech still suggests one of three things: he really does believe that India is on its way to striking a beneficial bilateral trade deal with the US; he believes that a very high US tariff will have no effect on Indian producers and exporters; or he is trying to deliberately mislead the Indian public on the matter. 

The opposition has been asking for a parliamentary discussion on the matter, so that there is clarity on where the talks stand now and why they may have broken down, as well as on how the government plans to counter the US tariffs. Other than a statement from Goyal that his ministry is examining the “implications of recent developments” and will “secure national interest”, the Union government has not addressed the tariffs in parliament at all. 

Here’s what we do know about what’s happening between the two countries:

1. From August 27, there will be a 50% tariff on Indian goods exported to the US, unless something changes in the interim. The only other country facing a US tariff rate that high is Brazil. The Indian government has said this move by the Trump administration is “extremely unfortunate”, and the US is levying the 25% penalty “for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest”.
2. While negotiations for a trade deal have been taking place and another round was scheduled for later this month, Trump has said that these talks are on hold until existing disputes are “resolved” – though the US State Department says a “full and frank dialogue” continues. A Reuters report has said that “a mix of political misjudgment, missed signals and bitterness broke down the deal”. An Indian government official has told The Indian Express that it is unclear whether the US negotiating team will be coming to India this month.

Let’s compare these facts with what the commerce minister has been saying in just the last two weeks.

1. August 8: ‘Don’t see any stones on India’s path’

When asked about the hurdles that India may face because of the tariffs announced by the US at the Business Today India@100 Summit, Goyal said, “I don’t see any stones on India’s path forward.” At times of global turmoil, like the Y2K moment and the COVID-19 pandemic, Indian industry has always made the most of the situation, he said. He promised that India will do “more trade” this year than last. He also mentioned the US in the list of countries India is in talks with.

When asked about Trump’s statement calling India a “dead economy”, Goyal said that “the whole world is looking up to India”. He did not name Trump during his response, but did condemn Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for repeating this claim. On the trade talks with the US, he said, “We don’t do negotiations on the media stage.”

2. July 28: ‘Progressing very well’

“Our discussions with the United States are progressing very well. I am fully confident that by the October-November 2025 timeline, we will secure a good agreement,” Goyal said in Mumbai on July 28. “India doesn’t negotiate its trade agreements based on deadlines,” he said on Trump’s August 1 deadline, but said “it would be good” if a deal was finalised before that.

Just a few days later, on July 31, Trump announced a blanket 25% tariff on Indian goods, along with a penalty for India’s trade relationship with Russia. A few after that, he announced that the penalty would be an additional 25%.

3. July 25: ‘Fantastic progress’

In London, at the end of July to sign the India-UK bilateral agreement, Goyal said that India is making "fantastic" progress in trade talks with the US.

"All options are on the table, and we will see how it plays out, but what is important is to get preferential market access over our competitors, our peers," he said. "And I'm very confident that India, having been the first country to start negotiating, will be given a special and preferred treatment."

Around the same time, Indian officials told Reuters that the trade talks have hit a road block over disagreements on import duties for auto components, steel and farm goods.

Because of Goyal’s overly optimistic and perhaps deliberately misleading remarks around these negotiations, it is difficult for the Indian public to know whether a deal really is in the making. Meanwhile, the 25% US tariff on Indian goods is in place and the additional 25% additional penalty looms in the near future.

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