The external affairs ministry’s annual Raisina Dialogue, being held since 2016, is meant to project the government’s foreign policy to accomplish Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s publicly articulated wish in 2015 for India to become a leading power. So, it was expected that the tenth edition of the Dialogue held in Delhi from March 17 to 19 would reflect in the choice of speakers the new global realities set into motion by US President Donald Trump within hours of his inauguration on January 10. India, with the coming of the Modi government in 2014, had embraced the US as its focal strategic partner and the Global North nations its natural partners to accomplish its foreign policy objectives.
Rubbishing the Biden administration’s world view and foreign policy, Trump shocked the world by downplaying the US alliances by announcing strategic withdrawal from Europe. This effectively would end eighty years of US policy of total support and nurturing of Nato at the time when it was involved in proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. Trump’s focus instead has shifted to deal making with the other two great powers – Russia and China – in a multipolar world to strengthen US’ national power which had dipped in recent decades.
Europe led by the European Union has clearly been the biggest loser in the US’ altered geopolitical chessboard where the Global North as an entity led by the US leadership would become meaningless. The 28-member EU out of the 44 European nations which pivots the Global North was India’s largest trading partner with € 124 billion trade in 2023. With a population of 450 million and a $20 trillion economy, the EU, given its total dependence on US military power, suddenly lost its geopolitical heft in a world where the centre of gravity had shifted to the Indian and Pacific oceans. This once-in-century change owed itself to the spectacular rise of China and some Global South nations. This was strengthened by Russia’s foreign policy shift to the east from the earlier west and the strategic partnership of China and Russia with belief in a new global governance model which offered development and prosperity through new emerging technologies and indivisible security to Global South nations.
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India too suffered geopolitically. It was unclear whether, like Biden, Trump’s ties to India had strategic value, or they were primarily limited to US trade, energy and arms sales. While agreeing to Trump’s demands, including to increase present $200 billion bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, India hoped that Trump would not lose interest in security competition with China for which India had aligned its strategic vision and military capabilities with the US Indo-Pacific command.
Amidst this, what stood like a rock was India’s trusted strategic partnership with Russia, which helped India overcome numerous hurdles. Whether it was the May 2018 Sochi summit where Russian President Vladimir Putin became the silent guarantor of India-China peace deal during Wuhan summit in April 2018. Or Russia helping India and China sign the September 10, 2020 joint statement for peace on the Line of Actual Control in Moscow. Or Russia bringing India and China in a triangular matrix in the late 1990s which translated into Brics – a centrepiece of the new global order. Or helping India with space, energy, defence, military and technology ties especially sharing some restrictive technologies.
Thus, given Trump-induced flux, Russia’s importance for India should have risen.
Unfortunately, this was not reflected at the Raisina dialogue where 11 of the 20 attending ministers were from Europe. Sure enough, Ukraine was the top discussion topic at most sessions. It would have been embarrassing for the Russian delegation to watch the proceedings at the Dialogue where Europeans were given a platform to criticise Russia without a reciprocal opportunity. For example, the top-billed session was ‘Thrones and Thorns: Defending the Integrity of Nations’ with foreign minister S. Jaishankar as the star speaker. His co-panellists, foreign ministers of Liechtenstein and Slovak – Dominique Hasler and Juraj Blanar – and former Prime Minister of Sweden Carl Bildt criticised Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. All this happening in India who Russia considers its stable and time-tested partner.
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How did short-changing Russia in Delhi through a motley crowd of Europeans further India’s foreign policy interests? Has India grasped the Trumpian world view where Russia is important, but India may not be a priority?
If India indeed understood Russia’s risen global standing, it would have invited President Putin to be the chief guest at the Raisina Dialogue. Or, ensured Russian speakers’ presence in all key sessions. India did neither. This showed either India’s inability to understand the new global realities. Or more appropriately, it’s willingness to play second fiddle to the tottering Global North. Not a fit stance for a nation aspiring greatness.
Pravin Sawhney is the author of The Last War: How AI Will Shape India’s Final Showdown With China.
