The Long Shadow of the SCO: Indian Diplomacy Needs Maturity, Not Theatrics

If Chinese statecraft has long been about deception and outmanoeuvring adversaries through guile, contemporary Indian diplomacy appears to rest on self-deception, cultivating a domestic euphoria that is both misplaced and dangerous. The recent SCO summit once again illustrated this uncomfortable truth.

Much was made of the images of the “Troika” – India, China, and Russia – projected by the Indian media as a triumphant trimurti confronting the United States. It was ignored that the coming together didn't reflect an authentic affection, but was an outcome of geopolitical necessity, a staged script that may not sustain for long. The fissures between New Delhi and Beijing can't be bridged by laughter and handshakes.

The border dispute remains unresolved, with India continuing to be in a disadvantageous position since the summer of 2020. China is adding naval capacity equivalent to India’s entire navy every five years. Its ability to stoke proxy wars on the eastern and western flanks of India is stronger than ever. Those who cheer India’s place at the SCO table conveniently ignore Beijing’s record of backing Pakistan against India, the latest during Operation Sindoor.

Similarly, to read the Troika image as a revival of the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral against Washington is an exercise only the naïve could afford. Each of the three states is quietly negotiating with the Trump administration to fetch the maximum out of Washington. India, the most affected by US tariffs, ironically, is also the most dependent on Washington among the trio for its finances and security, yet finds itself in the weakest bargaining position.

When Xi Jinping calls for a “new global order,” it is less a universalist project than a rebranding of Chinese hegemony, which India simply can’t endorse.

Even the SCO’s joint declaration, while “strongly condemning” the Pahalgam terror attack, revealed India’s limits. New Delhi couldn’t have, and didn’t support sections endorsing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), even as Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian states reaffirmed their commitment to its “joint implementation.” A sincere diplomacy can’t ignore the challenge such aspects of the SCO pose to India.

The Indian domestic audience needs to be told that the SCO is not just about India, China and Russia. It also includes Pakistan and Nepal, whose leaders joined Beijing’s grand military parade, an event marked by the absence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Amid this, there is talk of a new ‘G2’, a US-China forum, which suggest that Washington may be preparing to grant Beijing greater space as a rival power. New Delhi has so far found comfort in the fact that several Western leaders seem to favour a democratic India rather than an opaque China. The elevation of China and a realignment of the global order could pose a graver strategic challenge to India.

Sino-Indian relations cannot be understood without recalling their chequered past, and the special role of the US. At the 2005 SCO summit in Astana, when India was only an observer, Chinese President Hu Jintao reportedly told Indian foreign minister Natwar Singh that Beijing preferred India to remain closer to China than to Washington. But given the history of mistrust, India, wisely so, pressed ahead with its US partnership. Two decades later, the scenario is no longer assuring. Given the unpredictability of the Trump administration and the volatility of the global order, India now faces a narrow path between an adversarial US and an untrustworthy China.

In such an environment, Indian diplomacy requires maturity, not theatrics. The optics of fervent hugs and staged laughter may please domestic audiences, but they do little to strengthen India’s position abroad. What India needs is a sober, clinical analysis of foreign policy by independent voices capable of exposing the triumphalist noise amplified by a pliant press.

There may indeed be a recalibration underway in Sino-Indian relations. But to mistake this for a reset – or, worse, a return to normalcy – is to indulge in the very self-deception the Modi government has practiced in the last decade, leaving India increasingly vulnerable.

The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.