The Winds Are Largely Favourable Towards China

Most China watchers consider the year 2011 to be when the country decided to set aside its more cautious approach and assume a more active role, leading to “wolf warrior” diplomacy and the aggressive promotion of things like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

What is often overlooked is the crisis in the US-led alliance system that preceded this. The most obvious was the 2008 financial crisis set off by the US real estate sector. This was only the last of various issues, including the flagrantly illegal invasion of Iraq on trumped-up intelligence and the horrific abuse during George Bush’s “War on Terror”. The role of the US as the ‘sole superpower’, the ‘indispensable nation’, and ‘global policeman’ had been undermined by its own inability and unwillingness to manage security and the global economy.

Very much like Iran stepped up in West Asia, China stepped up on the global stage in the wake of US failure and the absence of any real challenge. In truth, neither of the two countries were fully prepared for the moment. The destruction visited upon Iran and its allies recently by Israel and the United States indicates very clearly that while Iran could spread its influence, it was not in the position of defending it. To a lesser degree, China’s grand gestures on the global stage – from its aggressive diplomacy to the championing of an ambitious BRI programme have met the hard reality of pushback from many countries and the limitations of a country inexperienced at funding large projects out of its borders. China’s bludgeoning of civil society in Hong Kong, aggressive claims in the South China Sea, and it's terribly misguided ‘Zero Covid’ policy have led to suspicions both of its intent as well as its competence.

But what of the US?

That said, history seems to be repeating itself as the United States under the second Trump administration serves up another opportunity for China to assert itself. The Trump administration’s tariff policies have already sent US investor confidence nosediving to levels unseen since 2008. And just like the 2008 crisis, the harm will be felt by both the US and the world, with global GDP set to contract in all predicted scenarios. And just like in 2008, the US is also part and parcel of a number of military conflicts, none of which are going well, but all of which benefit China to some degree or other.

Trump boasted that he could solve the Russian war on Ukraine in 24 hours. It has been more than five months and the conflict seems far from a resolution. One indicator is that Ukraine is moving to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty prohibiting the use of anti-personnel mines. Militaries use mines in the case of long-drawn conflicts where long borders must be defended without an agreed-upon demarcation. The fact that it has been more than three years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine is embarking on this now suggests that the country is no longer confident that any stable military or diplomatic outcome is likely in the near or medium term. Anti-personnel mines, once deployed, are very difficult to remove without injury and transform cultivable lands into death traps. This is a strategy of last resort, one Ukraine has been forced into as it is entirely unclear what the US strategy is, or if it even has one. This is reflected in the ‘victory’ that Trump has claimed by getting NATO countries to largely commit to spending 5% of their GDP on defence. The arming of Europe is as much driven by a distrust of US leadership than anything else, and Europe is not backing off on supporting Ukraine. NATO might be better armed, but it is also less likely to fall in line with US diktats.

If the war in Ukraine has shown the decline of US diplomatic and military leadership, the US involvement in Israel’s long war on the Palestinians and many of its neighbours after the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023 has been a catastrophe. The conflict has not ceased, although it may have peaked after the attacks on Iran conducted in partnership with the United States. The involvement of the US in war crimes, most recently the murder of hundreds desperate Palestinians as they scramble for scarce food distributed by the so-called ‘Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’ and its patently illegal attack on Iran have eviscerated any claims that a US-led alliance respects international law. For China, it has significantly lowered the legal bar for a military campaign against Taiwan, which most countries already recognise as a part of China under the ‘One China’ formulation, even if such a military engagement would be likely to also be catastrophic.

Lastly, the short military conflict between India and Pakistan highlighted the efficacy of Chinese arms against those of the US-led alliance states. In doing so, it spiked the claims of sub-regional military dominance of India, the one member of the Quad grouping that has a land border with China.

Strategy in a world with Trump

All in all, China has much to be pleased about. The strongest US military alliance, NATO, is bogged down and in disarray for the foreseeable future. The US has far overtaken China in ignoring internal law, and charges of unfair trade practices by China pale in comparison to Trump’s tariff war against the world and US allies. Lastly, any containment strategy hinged on the Quad in Asia has been undercut. The states on China’s maritime borders – Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia – who may have doubted the capability of Chinese arms, have just had a very rude awakening.

Given these conditions, the restrained Chinese response to US/Israeli strikes against Iran has been interpreted as weakness. To a degree, this is true, but then every country is weak in comparison to the US, which remains the world’s pre-eminent economic and military power. A verbal example of this was when the (cloying and embarrassing) use of the term “Daddy” for the US by the NATO secretary general recently, in the context of the Trump administration dealing with Israel and Iran. China, or any other country, was not capable of physically defending Iran from US attacks without paying a very heavy price. Thus, it limited its involvement to merely condemning the illegal use of force.

On the other hand, when it came to its own strategic interests such as trade, China pushed back hard, forcing the US to do a humiliating climbdown and restricting the world’s supply of rare earth magnets needed for many computers and electric vehicles. It is also worth remembering that China did not immediately take a stronger public position after the 2008 financial crisis, but waited a few years. As the US continues to punish its allies and its own people, it would be folly for China to interfere. As Jin Canrong, the vice-dean and professor, School of International Studies, Renmin University of China, put it colourfully, “America is like a big guy messing around in a swimming pool. The short guy next to him might drown, but it doesn’t matter to China. We can just slide a few steps and swim away.”

To put it bluntly, those closest and most dependent on the US are paying the greatest price for the chaos the second Trump administration has unleashed. These are also those who would most likely have opposed China’s rise. All China has to do is watch as their capabilities are degraded further compared to its own, and maybe convince them to switch sides. The best way to do this is not to take any precipitate action, and merely present itself as a stable option with an economy focued on the future. It may also be that China has learned the lessons from its own intemperate actions in the past – boasting and throwing around money and power when the US was experiencing a temporary decline came with costs. A slower and steadier strategy might work better for it this time around. Either way, the winds are largely favourable to China as it receives a second chance to present itself as an alternate node to a US-dictated international order.

Omair Ahmad is an author. His last novel, Jimmy the Terrorist, was shortlisted for the Man Asian Literary Prize, and won the Crossword Award.

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