US President Donald Trump’s February 2026 executive order rescinding the 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods was explicitly conditioned on India stopping direct or indirect imports of Russian crude and increasing purchases of US energy products. Although framed as a trade concession by the Modi government, the order introduces several strategic, economic and geopolitical risks for India.

Here are the major risks and consequences for India.

Strategic autonomy under question

India has historically pursued a non‑aligned foreign policy, later christened as pursuit of strategic autonomy, balancing ties among the US, Russia, Europe, and emerging Asian partners. Trump’s order publicly asserts that India “has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian oil,” even though New Delhi has so far stayed mum about the claim.

By accepting US conditions for tariff relief, the Modi government appears to have compromised the fundamental premise of its strategic autonomy, especially when the commitment is framed as part of US national security measures.

If India is perceived by Moscow as aligning too closely with Washington, this could erode long‑standing defence and energy partnerships, including critical support in military hardware, nuclear energy and space cooperation. In geopolitical terms, the order curtails India’s freedom of manoeuvre in a multipolar world.

Potential retaliation by Russia

Russia has been one of India’s most consistent security partners for decades. A US-driven reduction in Indian purchases of Russian crude, an economically significant revenue stream for Moscow, could strain bilateral trust and long‑term cooperation.

Should Russia perceive the shift as capitulation to US pressure, it might reassess priority access for India to defence supplies, modern technology and joint production of weapons. Reduced Russian goodwill could weaken India’s options in defence procurement, especially in strategically critical areas like submarines, S‑400 systems and other cutting edge military systems.

Also read: India-US Trade Deal: Five Takeaways From the White House Statements

Exposure to US enforcement mechanisms 

The executive order introduces a US government monitoring mechanism to confirm India’s cessation of Russian imports, overseen by the Commerce, State and Treasury Departments. This monitoring, paired with a safeguard clause that enables reimposition of tariffs if India resumes purchasing Russian crude, creates continuous exposure to US policy shifts. 

Given the volatility of US trade policy in recent years, India risks being caught in a cycle of compliance and renegotiation. Any perceived deviation could trigger reinstated tariffs, undermining business confidence, bilateral trade stability, and long-term supply‑chain planning.

Energy security vulnerabilities and higher import costs

India imports roughly 90% of its crude oil needs, and discounted Russian oil has been a crucial buffer against volatile global prices. Russian supplies, at times exceeding 1.2 million barrels per day, enabled India to lower its import bill significantly after 2022.

With the executive order compelling India to scale down and ultimately cease such purchases, the Modi government risks heightened dependence on costlier West Asian or US crude. US energy exports, while geopolitically safer from Washington’s viewpoint, are typically priced higher and subject to logistical constraints. This shift could raise India’s retail fuel prices, widen its current account deficit, and increase fiscal pressure on subsidies or inflation‑management policies. 

Moreover, an abrupt realignment of supply contracts may disrupt refinery configurations, many of which were optimised to process heavy Russian grades. Forced diversification under external pressure, rather than market-driven strategy, creates structural vulnerabilities in India’s energy ecosystem.

To sum up, Trump’s executive order may have offered India short-term tariff relief but introduces long-term strategic risks. These include vulnerabilities in energy security, pressures on foreign policy autonomy, potential friction with Russia, exposure to US enforcement mechanisms and major economic trade-offs. The full consequences will depend on how the Modi government balances these obligations with its broader national interests and geopolitical goals.

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