Despite receiving a highly sought after invitation from China to participate in the annual Boao Forum for Asia and subsequent meetings with Chinese leaders, the Nepali prime minister has chosen not to make any foreign appearances till now.
Instead, Pushpa Kumar Dahal decided to uphold the longstanding tradition of every Nepali prime minister by making his inaugural foreign visit to India. However, unlike previous occasions, New Delhi took six months to extend a welcome to Dahal at Hyderabad House.
As the country’s chief executive, he will embark on an official visit to India from May 31 to June 3, marking his first foreign trip since assuming office on December 25 last year. Having already served as prime minister twice earlier, he had previously visited India in 2008 and 2016.
On Monday, he informed Parliament about his itinerary and key plans for the visit. “During my visit, I will discuss with the Indian side various aspects of bilateral relations such as trade, transmission, energy cooperation, irrigation, air route, roads, and other connectivity projects,” he said.
If what Dahal said in Parliament is all that is on the bilateral agenda, the visit seems to be largely about economic issues, with additional minor agreements and MoUs.
Of late, the two countries are focusing on energy cooperation, and Dahal said he will hold “concrete talks on the same issue”. “Hydropower is one the key areas of cooperation between the two countries, so my priority should be securing Indian investment in the hydropower sector, ensuring that our national interests and welfare are well served,” Dahal told Parliament.
Both Nepal and Bangladesh are urging India to facilitate the energy cooperation between them, but there has not been any tangible progress. “This time, I will hold concrete talks to secure the deal that would allow us to export our electricity to Bangladesh,” he said. Nepal has already started to export power to India but many hurdles still remain.
Prime Minister Dahal also said that he will ‘solid talks’ to finalise the Detailed Project Report (DPR) of the Pancheshwor Multipurpose Project, but any breakthrough on it is unlikely because there have not been any concrete preparations at the bureaucratic level. Since 2016, this remains a top agenda item of bilateral meetings, but the two countries have failed to prepare a DPR.
Domestically, Dahal is under pressure to take up the territorial dispute and other outstanding issues between the two countries, but it seems that both sides are going to downplay these issues this time.
While addressing the Parliament, the Nepali prime minister did not prominently raise the issue of border disputes. His speech clearly hinted that there will not be any progress on these issues during the visit. “An atmosphere of trust will be created to resolve this longstanding issue,” he said. India is asking Nepali politicians not to politicise the border and other issues.
As a part of the preparations for his visit, Dahal consulted former foreign ministers and experts about the issues he should raise with the Indian leadership. According to local media reports, they urged him to raise longstanding issues with India including the border dispute. The Eminent Persons’ Group on Nepal-India relations prepared a report on the matter in 2018, but it has been gathering dust as the Indian prime minister has not given the Group a time to submit the report to him. It is unlikely that this report will be discussed anytime soon.
Though there is the least possibility of any breakthrough between the two countries on bilateral issues, the visit provides an opportunity for Dahal to get first-hand information about New Delhi’s view on him and the current coalition.
Dahal is travelling to India after getting an endorsement of the government’s policy and programme from Parliament. The budget was also presented in the Parliament on Monday.
The Maoist leader has been largely busy consolidating his political position. Just a week ago, his full cabinet was formed.
At the same cabinet meeting that approved deals to be signed with India, the Nepal government also made a request to President Ram Chandra Poudel to officially approve the Bill that amends certain provisions of the Citizenship Act 2006. The government also granted amnesty to Resham Chaudhary, a political prisoner from the Nagarik Unmukti Party, which is a coalition partner.
All these developments indicate that there is no immediate threat to the Dahal-led government. Even the opposition CPN-UML has not taken a combative stance against the government in Parliament.
Through the visit, political observers say, Dahal wants to showcase that his government has the support and goodwill of India.
Dahal had left a post-election coalition with the CPN-UML and established a fresh alliance with the Nepali Congress and other smaller parties, a move that some observers believe aligns with New Delhi’s preferences as well.
While the prime minister may enjoy a comfortable majority in Parliament, Dahal faces significant economic challenges. The government’s efforts to control inflation have been unsuccessful, and public discontent is on the rise. If the government fails to deliver adequate services and promote good governance, it is likely to spark a debate within the Nepali Congress, a crucial coalition partner, regarding the government’s relevance.
Internal dissatisfaction within the Nepali Congress regarding the government’s performance has already surfaced. Rumors are circulating that the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML could potentially unite to form a new government, while talks of a coalition between all communist parties have also emerged.
Against this backdrop, Dahal aims to convey a message that India strongly supports the coalition during the upcoming visit.
However, New Delhi is unlikely to put all its eggs in Prachanda’s basket. India is going to keep its options open with relations with the main opposition party, CPN-UML, having improved lately.
Dahal’s visit to India has the potential to strengthen his position in domestic politics. However, the future of his government predominantly hinges on his ability to maintain a positive relationship with the Nepali Congress, effectively manage the economy and implement measures to enhance service delivery. These factors will play a crucial role in determining the fate of his government.
Kamal Dev Bhattarai is a Kathmandu-based journalist and political commentator.
