New Delhi: Asian Paints MD and CEO Amit Syngle, during interactions with investors, had said that the GDP figures do not correlate to core sectors, including steel and cement. “Not very sure how GDP numbers are coming," Syngle had said.

He made these remarks while answering a specific question on the correlation between the growth in the paint industry and the GDP, the company said in a statement.

"His (Syngle's) comments were in response to a specific query on the correlation between the growth in the paint industry and the GDP," it said.

"In that context (of the question), it was mentioned that the correlation of the paint industry growth with the GDP growth is varying, and we are unable to correlate both, unlike in the past. Historically, the paint industry was seen growing at a multiple of 1.5 to 1.75 times the GDP growth; off late, this correlation was distorted. It was, hence, called out that there is a need for examining the GDP data to understand the reasons for this variance," the statement added.

"The comments (by Syngle) were not, in any way, meant to question the sanctity of the GDP numbers as being projected," it said.

Here's what Syngle had said, per the Telegraph, at the investors' conference on May 9:

"You guys (investors) are better wizards in terms of really understanding … how those numbers are coming and so on and so forth. And sometimes you feel that there is such a variation happening across industries. How does that GDP really correlate to the actual GDP… even if you look at the core sectors, whether it is steel, cement, so on and so forth, nowhere it is correlating with… overall GDP growth".

"Therefore, I feel that we need to look at …a normalisation of this GDP growth to find out more realistically if we are talking of a 7% growth; whether that 7% really translates to a real-time of 5% or 4% GDP for a certain sector, and therefore look at extrapolating data in terms of seeing how the correlation works out.”

“We are also looking at ways and means in terms of finding out what is the real GDP,” Syngle added.

Also read: Modi Government’s Record on Data Is Marred With Misestimations and Delays

The issue on GDP numbers refocusses attention on what several economists such as Jayati Ghosh, Pronab Sen, and Santosh Mehrotra have said regarding how data has been calculated.

India’s former chief statistician and now Chair, Standing Committee on Statistics, Pronab Sen told Karan Thapar that the data on which India’s GDP is calculated is “a major concern”, and if not corrected soon, India’s GDP growth figures could become “unreliable”. He said he believes the Q1 GDP growth figure of 7.8% is an overestimation, and believes 6.5% is more accurate.

He further said that the recent Periodic Labour Force Survey’s (PLFS) findings that 58% of the workforce are self-employed is not an indication of increasing self-entrepreneurship. Instead, it is a sign of distress employment.

The Wire’s M.K. Venu had written that “there is a clear mismatch between GDP growth and private consumption. For 2023-24, GDP growth is officially projected at 7.6% but consumption growth is just about 3%.”

Separately, the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey of 2022-23 – which was released after more than a decade – followed a different methodology on sampling and questionnaire, as compared to previous surveys.

In the 2022-23 survey, the NSSO has included the imputed value of certain items received for free by households through social welfare programmes.

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