Economic Survey Projects 6.8-7.2% GDP Growth in 2026-27
New Delhi: The Economic Survey 2025-26, released by the Union Ministry of Finance on Thursday (January 29), claims that the issues plaguing India's economy are not domestic but international and geopolitical – and so out of the government's hands.
"The paradox of 2025 is that India’s strongest macroeconomic performance in decades has collided with a global system that no longer rewards macroeconomic success with currency stability, capital inflows, or strategic insulation," the Economic Survey states.
A recurring cause for concern in India has been the value of the rupee. Over the last month we have seen another record drop; for the first time ever, the rupee hit 92 to the dollar. This, according to the Economic Survey, is not reflective of the economy's performance. "Growth is good; the outlook remains favourable; inflation is contained; rainfall and agricultural prospects are supportive; external liabilities are low; banks are healthy; liquidity conditions are comfortable; credit growth is respectable; corporate balance sheets are strong; and the overall flow of funds to the commercial sector is robust. Policy dynamism and purposeful governance reinforce this backdrop. The rupee’s valuation does not accurately reflect India’s
stellar economic fundamentals. In other words, the rupee, therefore, is punching below its weight."
The survey’s First Advance Estimates place FY26 real GDP growth at 7.4% and Gross Value Added growth at 7.3%, “reaffirming India’s status as the fastest-growing major economy for the fourth consecutive year”. It has projected GDP growth in the range of 6.8 to 7.2% in 2026-27.
"The outlook, therefore, is one of steady growth amid global uncertainty, requiring caution, but not pessimism," the survey says.
This forecast is more optimistic about India's economy that others released by international groups. The International Monetary Fund, for instance, has said India’s GDP growth is likely to fall to 6.4% next year. The World Bank had earlier predicted a 6.5% GDP growth rate for India in the coming year. The IMF has also seriously questioned India's national accounting system, recently giving it a 'C' grade to the country's GDP data for being "unreliable".
The survey – meant to be an annual report card on the economy over the previous financial year, ahead of the presentation of the Union Budget on February 1 – said that the last year was "unusually challenging" but the government took proactive steps like GST rationalisation to ease the burden on citizens.
On India-US trade deal
The Economic Survey accepts that things have not gone according to plan, and that expectations of a quick and easy trade deal with the Donald Trump administration were misplaced. However, the tariffs imposed have not affected growth in the way one may have expected, the survey claims:
"Although the President of the United States announced reciprocal tariffs of 25% on India in April, India was expected to strike an early agreement with the US administration and lower them. So, in August, when the American President announced an additional penal tariff of 25% on most of India’s merchandise exports to the United States on top of the reciprocal tariff of 25% announced in April, it surprised many since India was expected to be one of the early winners in the new tariff regime of the United States. Growth forecasts were revised downward. But in reality, growth accelerated due to a slew of structural reforms and policy measures."
The survey also says there has been "progress in the negotiations" on a possible deal, and that "ongoing trade negotiations with the United States are expected to conclude during the year, which could help reduce uncertainty on the external front". Given the many starts and stops on these negotiations, and the mixed messaging around them coming from Union minister Piyush Goyal, it remains to be seen whether this will in fact be the case.
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