First 2022, Then 2025, Modi Fails Again with His Deadline to Make India a ‘$ 5-Trillion’ Economy

For several years, the $ 5 trillion milestone was the primary focus of economic policy and political communication. Now, official statements focus on even longer-term projections stretching toward 2047, effectively bypassing the failed benchmark.

The Wire Analysis

first 2022 then 2025 modi fails again with his deadline to make india a ‘ 5 trillion’ economy

Illustration: An image of Narendra Modi from 2018. Photo: PTI/File.

New Delhi: The official target of turning India into a five trillion-dollar economy has missed yet another deadline. In 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made the initial announcement setting the 2022 deadline for a $5 trillion economy on September 20, 2018, during the foundation stone laying ceremony of the India International Convention and Expo Centre in New Delhi.

When that initial target passed without success, the Modi government shifted the timeline to FY 2024-25. The GDP data for FY 2025-26 released this week shows that the government has missed this deadline as well, with the country’s GDP at Rs 346.4 lakh crore which equals approximately $3.6 trillion only. In response to these missed targets, Modi and his ministers have completely stopped mentioning the five trillion-dollar goal in public forums and official briefings.

PM Modi also used to boast about India soon becoming the third largest economy in the world, with some of his officials claiming that India had already become one. However, official economic data now reveals that India has slipped to be the sixth largest economy in the world. Similarly, the Indian share market has also slipped in recent weeks to being the sixth largest globally. It means that India’s expected advancement into the top tier of global economies has stalled.

These positions reflect a stagnation in India’s economic trajectory under the Modi government compared to the high growth trajectories witnessed during the previous UPA government. Calculations show that during the UPA government from 2004 to 2014, India's GDP in dollar terms grew at a significantly higher Compound Annual Growth Rate or CAGR of more than 11% while the Modi government has delivered a CAGR in dollar terms of only around 6% in its 12 years of rule.

It demonstrates that economic growth has decelerated under PM Modi when measured in global currency terms. One of the drivers of this slow dollar-denominated growth is the continuous depreciation of the Indian rupee under the Modi government. The weakness of the rupee is a direct result of economic policies pursued over the past decade. These policies failed to boost manufacturing exports sufficiently, invest in modern technologies like AI, reduced imported energy dependency, or attract enough stable foreign direct investment into the country. As the rupee steadily weakened against the US dollar, the size of India's economy has shrunk, highlighting the failure of the Modi government to achieve its $ 5 trillion target.

Measuring growth purely in local currency, instead of a global currency, can mask underlying structural weaknesses. While nominal GDP in rupees shows growth due to domestic inflation and local spending, the international purchasing power and global standing of the economy depend entirely on its value in US dollars.

The sudden silence from PM Modi, union ministers and other government spokespersons marks a definitive shift in official rhetoric. For several years, the $ 5 trillion milestone was the primary focus of economic policy and political communication. Now, official statements focus on even longer-term projections stretching toward 2047, effectively bypassing the failed benchmark.

This article went live on June tenth, two thousand twenty six, at twenty-seven minutes past six in the evening.

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