New Delhi: Global research and brokerage firm Bernstein has said in a report that the Indian election results, due on June 4, could lead to course correction in the Indian stock markets.
“Somewhere in this noise of news studio debates we seem to be losing track of ground realities in many states,” the report said, according to Business Standard. The report cited agitations in Rajasthan and Gujarat from different communities, farmers’ protests in Punjab and Haryana, and the arrest of chief minister Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi.
“West Bengal and Maharashtra are still uncertain; the gains are not easy to come by. What’s more, in eight key states, including those just listed, the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in 2019 grabbed 144 of the 146 seats, or almost 99 per cent. With so much to lose and almost nothing to gain, execution of ‘Plan 400’ will be far more challenging than setting targets. Incidentally, this can also be said about the policies already undertaken once the government comes to power,” the note co-authored by Bernstein managing director Venugopal Garre and Nikhil Arela noted.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has claimed that his Bharatiya Janata Party will cross 370 seats in the Lok Sabha on its own, and the National Democratic Alliance led by it will cross 400 seats overall.
“On their part, the markets have already taken a knock of nearly 2,000 points since the recent peaks, with the S&P BSE Sensex slipping from the 75,000 level amid geopolitical concerns and the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) commentary on interest rates,” Business Standard reported.
Given the recent performance in state elections and the results of almost all major opinion polls, 390-400 seats may have become the new base case, says Garre, adding that the projections sound quite optimistic for the NDA.
Speaking on the addition 50 seats the NDA will need to cross the 400 mark, the note says these would likely be planned from south India. “But even that isn’t a cakewalk. The inroads in Kerala, though historic, will likely be limited to 1-2 seats. Even Tamil Nadu is not expected to be much fruitful. The gains must come from Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal and Odisha. Many of these will see closely fought contests, with seats swinging wildly,” Garre wrote.
