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India’s August Industrial Output Fell for the First Time 18 Months

Heavy rains dampened mining and construction activity while a drop in manufacturing indicated a broader slowdown.
Reuters
Oct 12 2022
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Heavy rains dampened mining and construction activity while a drop in manufacturing indicated a broader slowdown.
Garment workers stitch shirts at a textile factory of Texport Industries in Hindupur town in Andhra Pradesh, India, February 9, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Samuel Rajkumar
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New Delhi: India's industrial output unexpectedly fell year-on-year in August for the first time in 18 months, as heavy rains dampened mining and construction activity while a drop in manufacturing indicated a broader slowdown.

India's industrial output fell 0.8% from August 2021, compared with a Reuters poll of a rise of 1.7% and rise of 2.4% in July.

"In an unpleasant surprise, the IIP (industrial output) contracted in August 2022, with heavy rains dampening construction activity and electricity demand," Aditi Nayar, economist at ICRA said.

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Mining output fell 3.9%, while manufacturing activity fell 0.7%.

India's central bank, which has been tightening its policy aggressively to tame inflation that hit a five-month high in September, may have to walk a tightrope if activity does not improve in the coming months.

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"The lower than expected IIP growth corroborates the narrative of a volume based slowdown, indicating stress in lower income households," said Saugata Bhattacharya, economist at Axis Bank.

Bhattacharya added that India's economy may slow more than currently expected given a drop in exports. Exports fell more than 3% in September according to government data released earlier this month.

Many economists have trimmed their Indian growth forecasts for the current fiscal year in the past weeks.

This article went live on October twelfth, two thousand twenty two, at sixteen minutes past seven in the evening.

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