As tradition goes, the Economic Survey in India is a compass of sorts. Released a day before the Union Budget, the survey often attends to the state of the country’s economy, summarises performance on key parameters and also highlights ambitions that the government of the day could aspire toward.
This year’s survey reads, in most part, like a fantasy novel because it is crafted for and about a country many Indian voters may not recognise.
Jobs
Let’s start with jobs. While acknowledging that 7.85 million non-farm jobs are needed annually till 2030 the survey plays two tricks simultaneously. It disregards a decade of jobless growth, disregards the core challenge of unemployment as cited by several economists and instead cites Periodic Labour Force Survey data, making no reference to often cited flaws and reaches the conclusion that there is employment recovery in both urban and rural areas. What makes the survey a true ‘mind-bender’ however is its suggestion that AI is the source of both a jobs problem and a skill problem. The advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) casts a “huge pall of uncertainty” with regard to its impact on workers across all skill levels- low, semi and high, says the Survey.
Representative image. Photo: Fett/Flickr (CC BY 2.0)
Do the authors of this survey truly believe India’s jobs crisis is because of AI? Can they point to one single industry that has moved in such leaps and bounds as to be fully reliant on Artificial Intelligence? In one fell swoop, the Survey seeks to absolve a government that has now been in-charge for a whole decade, of any responsibility towards skilling its population or of the deep jobs crisis India is grappling with.
Foreign direct investment
Next on the list is how and why all roads to foreign direct investment (FDI) must lead through China. Increased foreign direct investment inflows from China can help increase India’s global supply chain participation and push exports, says the Economic Survey.
The finance minister also helpfully pointed to East Asian economies as examples to follow. First, the data. OECD figures show that India’s share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows fell from 3.5% in the first nine months of 2022 to 2.19% in the same period in 2023. That’s not just a drop of over 50%, it is also a much steeper fall when compared to the overall global FDI inflow decline of 26% in the first nine months. Where does the Survey believe this magical surge will appear from?
Also read: Inequality, Jobs, Hunger: Why You Should Care About the Union Budget
There’s a bigger takeaway here. When tensions between India and China escalated in 2020, it led to what is often called the Galwan Valley battle that saw Indian and Chinese troops clashing at the border near the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh. In response, India banned a handful of Chinese-owned apps, and Prime Minister Modi proclaimed ‘Na Koi Ghusa Hai, Na Hi Koi Ghus Aaya hai’. In what feels like a slap on the face of soldiers who lost their lives in that clash, herders who are losing access to grazing land and a livelihood, and a country that has lost its sovereign territory, one thing is clear: There are no red lines in trade with China and there is no standing up to this bully.
Stock market
The stock market comes up next for special mention. “The significant increase in retail investors in the stock market calls for careful consideration,” says the Survey. The authors of the Survey believe it is overconfidence that is leading to speculation and the expectation of even greater returns.
Speaking of overconfidence, wasn’t it the country’s home minister Amit Shah who exhorted stock market investors to buy before June 4, the date for Lok Sabha election results, promising a 400-plus seat win for the BJP and a market rally?
Wasn’t it the Prime Minister who gave several carefully orchestrated interviews to television channels commenting on a stock market boom? Who should be held accountable for this speculative talk? What good is waxing eloquent on fair selling, disclosure and transparency when key leaders are egging investors on, based on – as has been shown in the election result, wholly unreliable outcomes?
As an aside, every time we roll around to a Union budget, the stock market implores the finance minister to provide tax relief for stock investments. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Social media as the source of all evils
And finally, the most incredible of its many observations. The Economic Survey writes that social media, screen time, sedentary habits, and unhealthy food are a “lethal mix” that can undermine public health and productivity. Who is to blame? Well, the private sector of course, whose contribution to this toxic mix of habits is substantial, and that is myopic – the Survey’s words, not mine.
The Survey then lauds India’s traditional lifestyle, food and recipes that have shown how to live healthily and in harmony with nature and the environment for centuries. In a country that is still waiting to hear on a census, that would then inform critical issues such as how many Indians should actually be covered in the National Food Security Act, how many people are unable to have three meals a day (close to 50% says the data) and how many people are without a job, this Instagram influencer post-like material is certainly laughable but it is also deeply disturbing.
Tasked with leading and advising on critical economic issues, the chief economic advisor is making a cruel joke about how much, or how little the government cares about what India’s majority is struggling with. In this part fantasy, part mythology document, there is no jobs problem, there is no household distress and social media is the source of all evils. What should one then expect from the upcoming Union budget? The honest answer – and I hope to be proved wrong – would be very little. When there is no problem to acknowledge, there is no problem to solve.
Mitali Mukherjee is a political economy journalist with more than two decades of experience in TV, print and digital journalism.
