On Former Finance Secy’s Serious Questions on GDP Data, Govt Still Not Answering on ‘Missing Rs 6 Lakh Cr’

New Delhi: Days after the Union government’s announcement of a 7.8% real gross-domestic product (GDP) growth met with criticism over its methodology being misleading, the statistics ministry on Wednesday (September 2) defended the data, claiming that its critics' arguments are flawed.

Several experts have pointed to the revision in nominal GDP number in the first quarter (Q1) of  financial year 2025-26, which was used as the base period for calculating this FY's Q1 growth rate. The growth rate for this Q1 is almost a percentage point higher than the 6.9% figure same time last year.

Nationalist Congress Party (SP) chief Sharad Pawar has accused the government of ‘manipulating’ statistical methods to mask the fact that the economy is actually slowing down. He also accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of using international events to divert public attention from domestic issues such as rising inflation.

The Congress has also raised questions on the government’s numbers in the April-June quarter saying it presents a "Greatly Distorted Picture" of the state of India's economy as it doesn't convey the "depressed" investment sentiment. Congress general secretary in-charge communications Jairam Ramesh said the Modi government must understand that "PR can polish the picture" of the GDP but not the economy itself.

The government has said the revision was consistent with the new methodology, that the base year has changed, the use of producer price index provides more granular information, and more data is available. This, the statistics ministry reportedly said, led to the revision, which is completely kosher. 

The Q1 GDP estimate for 2025-26 was lowered from Rs 86 lakh crore to Rs 80 lakh crore as it was based on earlier series (2011-12 base year), which has now been updated to 2022-23, the government added. The government has given no explanation or reasoning for why this GDP actual figure, nominal price was suddenly brought down.

The government’s response has come after several experts, including former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg, criticised the data. In an interview to The Wire, Garg has said that nominal GDP growth in April-June 26-27 would have been about 2.6% and the GDP growth in real terms would have been “close to 0”, had the base GDP not been revised down from Rs 86 lakh crore to Rs 80 lakh crore. He questioned why the government shaved off Rs 6 lakh crore from previous base year figures in the statistical revisions.

Former coal secretary Anil Swarup, also a Modi government appointee like Subhash Chandra Garg, has queered the pitch by saying the data discrepancy needs to be looked at seriously by the government and it must answer.

if a former Finance Secretary to the current Government makes this statement, it just can't be thrown into the dustbin. The country needs to know the truth. pic.twitter.com/xxjfpG3OUU

— @anilswarup (@anilswarup58) September 2, 2026

Swarup has also raised questions about the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calling out serious problems with how India measured its GDP, giving it a ‘C’ grade.

As the issue of "real" GDP gets debated, one appreciates C rating given by IMF. It now appears as a debate between "Andh Bhakts" and "Dimagi Naxals" with the the "Godi Media" and "Goli Media" having a field day. Ironically the cat amongst the pigeons was set up by a former "Babu" pic.twitter.com/Iq5n4gDVy7

— @anilswarup (@anilswarup58) September 3, 2026

Swarup said, “as the issue of "real" GDP gets debated, one appreciates the C rating given by the IMF. It now appears as a debate between "Andh Bhakts" and "Dimagi Naxals" with the "Godi Media" and "Goli Media" having a field day. Ironically the cat amongst the pigeons was set up by a former "Babu".

Speaking to reporters, statistics secretary Saurabh Garg said that quarterly estimates are ‘largely based on indicators’. He said they are revised as more comprehensive information on corporate performance, government activity and actual output becomes available, whereas annual figures are generally more robust.

“There is no consistent upward or downward bias in the new series as some quarters had been revised higher and others lower,” he said, adding that going forward, no “substantial” revisions in GDP figures are anticipated, barring a few basis points.

"It's unfortunate that a comparison is being made of apples and oranges, when I'm sure people know better," he claimed.

In an article for The Wire, Arun Kumar, a former professor of economics, questioned the government’s GDP data, pointing to the months of economic crisis triggered by the West Asia crisis earlier this year. “This is surprising since Q1 of 2026-27 contained the months April and May when the economy was impacted by the West Asia crisis which led to a drastic reduction in availability of crude oil and gas from that area. Pre-war 20% of the world supplies came from there and of that India was a major recipient,” he wrote.

Dhananjay Sinha, CEO and co-head of institutional equities at Systematix Group, too questioned it, saying the government’s “headline-grabbing number” of 7.8% growth “comfortably beats the RBI’s own forecast of 7% growth despite headwinds of elevated oil prices, global trade protectionism, geopolitical tension and a deficient monsoon”.

Accordingly, GDP at current prices under the new series was estimated at about Rs 80.3 lakh crore for June quarter of the last fiscal year.This was revised to Rs 80.4 lakh crore in June because of the availability and updation of indicators and data. As the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and PPI became available and were incorporated into the GDP compilation, the first quarter GDP at current prices for 2025-26 was revised to Rs 80 lakh crore, it said.

The government released its growth figures for Q1 FY 27 on Monday, August 31. It saw revisions in both the preceding quarterly and annual figures. Growth for the January-March quarter of FY 26 was revised upwards to 8.6% from the provisional estimate of 7.8%; annual growth in FY 24 was revised to 7.3%, up from 7.2%; and a similar 10-basis-point (bps) upward revision was made for FY 25 and 26 to 7.2% and 7.8%, respectively.

In a video following the announcement, Modi took a dig at those raising questions at the state of the India’s economy, saying "doomsayers were doomed and India bloomed yet again".

Meanwhile, India recorded a current account deficit of $4.2 billion in the previous quarter, a figure larger than the $3.4 billion seen in the same period in the last fiscal year. Last month its manufacturing sector growth also declined for a third consecutive time to a five-year low, with one survey finding that companies reported facing relatively weak demand conditions.

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