Rupee Expected to Fall to 97 Per Dollar by End of 2026-27, May Stand at 99 a Year Later: Report
New Delhi: The already weaking rupee is expected to depreciate further against the US dollar over the next two fiscal years as a result of elevated energy prices, global risk aversion and less favourable interest-rate differentials, BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company has said, reported Press Trust of India.
The BMI estimates that the rupee will fall to Rs 97 per US dollar by the end of FY 2026-27, which runs from April 2026 to March 2027, and to Rs 99 per dollar by the end of FY 2027-28.
It said in a note that ever since the start of the West Asia crisis, rupee has already weakened by around 4%.
Meanwhile, the rupee further fell by 7 paise to 95.68 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday (August 18), reported Business Standard. Earlier on Monday, the rupee had on Monday (August 17), the rupee had depreciated 19 paise to close at 95.61 against the US dollar.
The early closure of the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) (FCNR (B)) swap window has also raised concerns about future dollar inflows and liquidity.
Earlier, the yields on five-year bonds and the three-year bonds had witnessed heightened demand from commercial banks, particularly foreign lenders, to deploy the liquidity generated the FCNR (B) inflows, had increased 8 basis points and three basis points, respectively.
But the RBI had announced that the facility would now be available only for FCNR(B) deposits mobilised until August 31, 2026, with banks able to avail themselves of swaps with the RBI until September 11.
Under the original schedule, deposits would have been mobilised until September 30, with banks able to access the swaps until October 16.
“The rupee was under noticeable pressure, with the currency trading around 95.60-95.62 a dollar. The immediate trigger is the RBI’s decision to bring forward the closure of its concessional FCNR(B) forex-swap facility to August 31, which surprised the market and raised concerns over the scale of future dollar inflows,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, reported Business Standard.
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