India’s demographic story is no longer one of uniform population growth but of sharp regional variations. While the southern states are ageing rapidly and outward migration from them is slowing, the northern states are experiencing a youth bulge that is reshaping labour outflows. This emerging north-south divide could redefine India’s migration dynamics and it holds economic implications, particularly for remittances and labour supply to West Asia.

The population trends in India present an interesting paradox. Just two years ago, in 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country. Yet, the 2025 United Nations population estimates find that India’s total fertility rate, or TFR, has dipped to 1.9, or under the replacement rate of 2.1. That is why experts raise the alarm that, within the next two decades, India will face the challenges of having an ageing population. Some projections suggest that by 2050, one in five Indians will be over the age of 60.

But the question missing from the discussion is the extent to which these demographic changes will affect out-migration from India, specifically to West Asia, which remains highly dependent on immigrant labour, and whose constituent nations host nearly half of all Indian emigrants. India accounts for 6% of the world’s emigrant population: the largest of all international migrant groups by country.

To understand demographic shifts and how they are influencing India’s migration patterns, it is crucial not to consider the country a monolith. The ongoing demographic transition is highly uneven across states, and with a clear north-south divide. Seven northern states including Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which are also the most populous, have a TFR between 2.5-3.0, higher than the national average. However, in the southern states, the TFR is falling below the replacement rate.

These contrasting demographic trajectories will shape India’s role in migration flows towards the Gulf region, a primary destination of working-class Indian emigrants. Of the 3.1 crore non-resident Indians, around 85 lakh were in a Gulf nation as of end-2018. This relates to the push-pull theory, whereby demographic pressures push residents of northern states to migrate, while declining working-age populations in southern states create more of a pull – higher demand for migrant labour – in the Gulf.

The situation in southern states

A sharp decline in fertility rates across southern states has been a key driver of the fall in India’s TFR below 2.1. Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have fertility rates around 1.6, far below the replacement level. In turn, Kerala is projected to have one of the oldest populations in India by 2030, with nearly 35 of every 100 working-age persons expected to be over 60 years of age.

The decline in TFR is highly relevant because migration has historically shaped the economies of southern states. Surveys indicate that, in Kerala for instance, migrants constitute almost a third of the population. The oil boom of the 1970s drew large numbers of workers from Kerala and Tamil Nadu (many without postsecondary education), into construction, retail and other semi-skilled trades. That trend lasted decades. Besides, migration from these states has often been described as a form of ‘escapism’, with people leaving for the Gulf and Southeast Asia in search of a better income.

Over time, this outward movement encouraged domestic investment in human capital, especially in high-demand fields such as nursing, which gave migrants from Kerala an edge abroad. This reflects the prospective channel of migration: the expectation of overseas employment incentivises individuals to acquire skills that enhance mobility.

However, this model is increasingly becoming difficult to sustain with a declining working-age population. Over the last decade, Kerala’s Gulf-bound workforce has fallen by 90%. This can have serious socio-economic implications, considering India is the top recipient of remittances, with Kerala alone accounting for about 19% of those.

Remittances sustain state economies, especially in the south, which makes them particularly vulnerable to ongoing demographic shifts. As the graph below details, the share of remittances from southern states has been growing: Kerala’s share rose from 19% to 19.7%, Tamil Nadu’s from 8% to 10.4% and Andhra Pradesh’s from 4% to 4.4%, between 2017 and 2024.

However, the accelerating ageing population is expected to shrink the pool of working-age migrants – predominantly those in the 20 to 40 age group – who supply labour to the Gulf, creating a significant decline in remittances as a percentage of GDP.

From a migration theory perspective, economists call this phenomenon the “absence channel” – the idea that when a large share of the working-age population leaves a country, their absence reconfigures local labour markets, household dynamics and even fertility patterns. It follows that as this channel begins to contract in the south, it exposes states like Kerala to new economic pressures, from declining remittance inflows to potential labour shortages in key sectors.

At the same time, it raises questions about the potential for a return migration effect, whereby skilled or semi-skilled workers could return with savings and ideas that may help partially offset the economic losses.

Northern states: rising youth bulge

The decline in southern migration does not necessarily mean a labour crunch in the Gulf states. Roughly 70% of Indians employed there work in semi-skilled or unskilled roles, with professionals constituting the rest, but this gap is increasingly being filled by northern states.

Data show that one in every three children under 14 is from just two states with fertility rates higher than the national average and the replacement rate: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Hence, these states will be key contributors to the workforce of the future. This is already showing up in the migration patterns abroad.

The table below shows the state-wise breakup of Emigration Clearances (ECs) issued to blue-collar workers for employment in the Gulf. There is a sharp decline in the southern states, while the northern states now constitute a significant share of workers, with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar leading. This trend is likely to accelerate as southern states undergo demographic transitions that reduce their out-migration potential.

It also shows occupational selection: northern migrants are predominantly low-skilled or semi-skilled workers, which enables them to what southern migrants used to do. Moreover, experts argue that declining job prospects in both the formal and informal sectors are pushing more workers from northern states to seek opportunities in the Gulf countries.

This is a striking paradox: The southern states, despite sending fewer migrants to the Gulf, continue to command a rising share of India’s inward remittances, whereas the northern states, which account for larger migrant outflows, contribute only a small and declining share.

Therefore, while northern states may be able to meet the Gulf’s demand for unskilled labour, the extent to which this will benefit the Indian economy through remittances remains uncertain. For now, it is possible that southern migrants have more well-established diasporas in the Gulf, which amplify both financial and social returns for their home communities, a ‘network effect’ that northern states have yet to develop.

Overall, as India’s internal demographic divide deepens, the key challenge will be to ensure that the migration potential of the north’s youth is matched by the skill and policy support once enjoyed by the south. Unless this is addressed, India’s next migration story may be one of quantity without quality, where we will still see a flow of workers but without the same economic multiplier that once made Kerala’s Gulf connection a global success story.

Akshat Sogani is a former LAMP Fellow and Ashoka alumnus, currently pursuing a Master’s in Public Policy at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.

The data for this piece were gathered by the author from The Hindu’s reporting, which drew on data from the Reserve Bank of India, the Election Commission, the e-migrate portal and a Rajya Sabha Q&A.

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