New Delhi: Residents of Delhi and the entire National Capital Region (NCR), who were bracing for the annual Diwali air pollution crisis, were caught by surprise on Tuesday as air quality dipped into the 'poor' category well ahead of the festival. This comes after four months of relatively satisfactory ease-of-breathing conditions, largely attributed to the long monsoon season.

In response to the Air Quality Index (AQI) crossing 210 at 4 pm on October 14, 2025, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) has activated Stage I of the Graded Response Action Plan or GRAP in Delhi-NCR. This is a surprise for residents, as the farm fires, usually responsible for raising smoke and other pollutant levels in the capital this time of year, are not yet in full swing.

Instead, the rise in air pollution and toxicity levels is simply due to the onset of cooler weather conditions, drier air and lower wind speeds. It has spiked the ozone content in the air at the ground level. Ozone at this level is created when nitrogen naturally present in the air reacts with carbon emissions – mostly human-produced Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs). Besides, the level of Particulate Matter (or PM, especially PM 10) has also risen in Delhi over the last three days, also as a result of human activity such as vehicular traffic, industrial activities and construction work.

Also read: Delhi Vehicle Ban: What the Ambitious Policy to Curb Air Pollution Gets Wrong

The current level of pollution can only be expected to increase as farm fires – in which farmers in northern states set paddy stubble ablaze to speed up their next season's sowing – pick up in the early stages of winter. And, of course, there is the expected pollutant spike due to Diwali crackers, unless the government cracks down on unauthorised use, which will be unusual if it proves effective.

For now, Delhi-NCR residents must wait for the GARP I norms to kick in in earnest, with stricter pollution checks for on-road vehicles, clean fuel mandated for restaurants and open-air eateries (due to bans on tandoors or stoves using coal or firewood), and for the inevitable increase in sightings of anti-smog guns and dust control measures.

There is bound to be pessimism over effectiveness, as the government has rarely, if ever, managed to control pollution in the capital, especially during the winter season, despite endless discussions on who the culprit is: farmers, vehicle-owners, office-goers or simply Delhi's geographic and climatic conditions.

Every year, the cases of respiratory disorders spike during the festival season, which coincides in the north with the arrival of cooler weather conditions. While air pollution caused by VOCs, such as dry cleaning fluids, petrol and diesel fuels, paints and polishes, cleaning supplies, etc., gain much attention as they cause visible smog that blocks visibility, these chemicals also permeate into the ground, which is less talked about though also a health hazard. What is worse, ozone exposure can cause serious health conditions, ranging from emphysema, where lungs fail to process oxygen, leading to breathlessness, and bronchitis. These are just two of several chronic conditions that ironically require clean air to heal and recover from.

Also read: Smog Shrouds Delhi After Diwali, Air Quality Dips in Several Metros

Considering the latest pollution reports, asthma, pneumonia and COPD (a medical term for conditions that cause breathing difficulties) and other problems will inevitably cause distress in the capital and around this year, including increased hospitalisation cases. COPD, when including indoor air pollution exacerbated by unsafe cooking practices, is the second-biggest cause of death and disability in Indian cities and rural areas, according to a study by Nature published in 2021.

Since most of the plans and programmes of successive governments in the capital have failed to have the desired or promised impact, one can only count on the weather; rainfall or heavy breezes, to stop lungs from choking and the onset of persistent coughs and allergies among vulnerable groups in the coming days and weeks.

Of late, the Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled government of Delhi has assured it will set up anti-smog machines on poles in parts of Delhi, seeding artificial rain, while the Union environment ministry has instituted a Rs 50 lakh prize for finding 'innovative' solutions to the air pollution crisis, but according to most experts, patchwork solutions will not yield results.

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