Bengaluru: It’s no April fool joke, this: brace for not just a hot, but abnormally hot summer this year, the India Meteorological Department has warned.
In a virtual press conference on Monday (April 1) IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that in the months to follow, from April till June, most of India will witness temperatures above normal.
The IMD’s warning comes at a time when the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation warned recently that 2024 will likely be worse in terms of heat after global heat records across the world, including in Asia and India, were broken over last year – which was the hottest year on record.
Above normal temperatures and heat wave days
Temperatures are expected to be above normal across most parts of the country between April and June this year, except for some parts of northwest India such as Jammu and Kashmir, and some parts of northeast India, Mohapatra said at the virtual press conference on Monday.
“During the 2024 hot weather season (April to June (AMJ)), above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except some parts of east and northeast India and pockets of northwest India where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely,” the IMD press release dated April 1 said.
On the left is the normal heatwave map that the country witnesses during April to June. On the right is what it will be this year: a huge anomaly. Photo: screenshot from the presentation by Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
The forecast for heat waves between April and June this year reveals that the number of heat wave days will be above normal, especially in areas such as Gujarat, central Maharashtra and north Karnataka followed by Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, he added.
Ten to 20 days of heat waves are expected in different parts of the country as against a normal of four to eight days, his presentation showed.
“Overall, the entire area of central India, north India and north peninsula are expected to have an above normal number of days of heat waves,” Mohapatra said.
In April, a higher than normal number of heat wave days are expected in many areas including central India, adjoining areas in the northern plains and south India: two to eight days of heat waves are expected as opposed to a normal of one to three days.
The areas most prone to witnessing increased heat waves include Gujarat, Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and western Madhya Pradesh.
The extended forecast for the next four weeks shows that heat waves and severe heat waves are likely to increase day by day over this time.
Rainfall (averaged across the country), meanwhile, is expected to be normal, Mohapatra said.
However, some parts – such as the east and west coasts and southern India – are also likely to witness below-normal rainfall during the month.
Improvement in heat wave forecasting skills
El Niño conditions continue in the country, said Mohapatra. However this will flip to ENSO-neutral conditions in the monsoon, followed by La Niña conditions in the second half of the monsoon (by July-September 2024), he added. India’s ENSO predictions tally with the predictions of international agencies in this regard, he said.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a complex climate pattern that depends on fluctuating sea surface temperatures and atmospheric changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
While weak monsoons and reduced rainfall in many regions (including most of south Asia) characterise an El Niño year, which occurs when the tropical Pacific Ocean warms up, a contrasting La Niña year is associated with cooler ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, which often results in higher rainfall in some places.
La Niña years, therefore, can often be cooler and wetter.
“During El Niño years, the heat wave frequency increases. Above normal heat wave conditions are usually observed in El Niño years,” Mohapatra said. The IMD’s April and May forecasts are therefore in agreement with the El Niño forecast, he added.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is another factor that plays a role in the weather conditions across the Indian Ocean and therefore across the country.
Currently, the IOD is at neutral conditions but will transition to positive IOD conditions. Both neutral and positive IOD conditions are good for the monsoon, Mohapatra said.
Union minister for earth sciences Kiren Rijiju, head and member secretary of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Kamal Kishore and Mohapatra chaired the press conference. Officials at the ministries of jal shakti, power and other Union government departments also attended the event.
There is a significant improvement in heat wave forecasting skills over the last five years compared to the five years before that, Mohapatra added. The probability of detection of heat waves has also increased over the years while false alarms have decreased, he said.
He also said that various new methods have been introduced over the years, including a hot weather hazard analysis for the entire country consisting of several meteorological parameters such as day temperature, night temperature, humidity, wind speed and directions, etc; and the heat index (consisting of temperature and humidity).
Elections, the heat, and preparing for both
India is “rapidly witnessing” numerous extreme weather events, Union minister Kiren Rjijju said at the virtual press con. “As there is [a] projection of extreme heat waves in the coming three months, all the stakeholders including the state governments made elaborate preparations…”
The IMD’s and other institutes’ projections reveal that “this year we are likely to encounter extreme weather difficulties, specially end of April, May and June … these are going to be very difficult times”, said Rijiju while addressing the press conference.
But on the other hand, the country is going to elections at the same time, he added.
Close to a billion people will be voting and this “will be very challenging”; the time, especially after the second and third phases, will be “very difficult for all of us”, he said, stressing the need to be prepared.
The Union ministry along with several stakeholders will take several precautionary methods to not only face the extreme weather conditions but also to enable people to take part in the electoral process, he added.
He appealed that all voters go to polling stations and cast their votes despite the situation being such that the elections will be held during “the most difficult weather conditions that we will witness this year”.
Over the last few years, the level of India’s preparation has increased by manifold and many steps are being taken, he said.
Considering the extent of heat waves India will witness in the months to come, it is important that authorities take proactive measures such as issuing heat advisories andd providing access to cooling centres.
The preparedness measures that India will implement – and has already begun implementing – include meetings being called, national advisories being issued (including to the Election Commission) and so on, Mohaptra said; Kamal Kishore concurred.
These measures have been reviewed by the NDMA and various ministries such as health, power, agriculture and jal shakti, and state agencies, he added.
Based on the NDMA’s guidelines, all 23 states and Union territories prone to heat waves have heat action plans in place; many have also updated these plans this year, Mohapatra added.
This makes heat wave action coverage 100%, Kishore added. He also said that the NDMA has been cross-checking with states to make sure they are complying with the advisories being sent out every two weeks.
“Awareness generation is absolutely critical … to reduce heat wave-related deaths,” he commented.
Warnings come true as climate change hits?
Last year, some parts of India reeled under severe heat waves.
Prayagraj in Uttar Pradesh recorded 44.6°C on April 17, 2023. Over the month, the IMD’s predictions of heat wave conditions over north, central and east India – including in Maharashtra, Bihar, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Delhi-NCR – came true.
The heat also claimed numerous lives: on April 16 alone, 13 people lost their lives in Navi Mumbai due to heat exposure at a public event. There were reports of more than 600 hospitalisations after this event too.
Climate change made the heat wave in Uttar Pradesh – the districts of Ballia and Deoria here witnessed 150 deaths in five days (from June 14 to June 18) – at least two times more likely, as per the Climate Shift Index which quantifies the impact of climate change on local weather in real time.
On May 17, a report by an international team of climate scientists under the banner of the World Weather Attribution group revealed that human-induced climate change made the April 2023 heat wave across India and Bangladesh a whopping 30 times more likely. As the world continues to warm up, the likelihood of an event like the April 2023 humid heat wave recurring would increase, the report had warned. This meant that India and Bangladesh could witness heat waves occurring every one or two years – an increase of three times – if we reach the 2°C warming threshold, the report had warned.
And we are nearly there.
Several reports such as this one have highlighted the extreme heat events that India and the world witnessed over the last year. On March 19 this year, the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation released its annual State of the Global Climate reconfirming that 2023 was hottest by far than any year ever recorded. The year also broke several major global climate records; the WMO had also warned that 2024 might be worse.
If the IMD’s latest heat warning is anything to go by, these warnings appear to be coming true.
Kishore touched on this aspect in his comments at the press conference on April 1:
“Because of climate change more and more geographical area of our country is becoming prone to heat waves so we really also require long-term solutions including how we build our built environment, buildings…The NDMA has commissioned studies to look at the effect of urban morphology, how do you use green spaces, water bodies to reduce the impact of heat wave, not just for this season but for years and decades to come,” he said.
