New Delhi: The global carbon budget is almost exhausted and global carbon emissions from fossil fuels will rise by 1.1% in 2025 – which is a record high, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project released on November 13 at the ongoing COP30 at Belem, Brazil.

The annual Global Carbon Budget report measures carbon emissions from human activities such as from burning fossil fuels, cement production and changes in land use (such as those caused by deforestation) and compares this to thresholds outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. 

India’s emissions are still growing albeit at a slower rate than before, possibly driven by a deployment of renewables. Country-level data shows that in 2024, India, at 8%, was the third-highest absolute contributor to the total global fossil fuel emissions.

Carbon budget almost exhausted

The Global Carbon Project is an international research project that puts together a complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions, together with the interactions and feedbacks between them. The Global Carbon Budget 2025 (GCB 2025), produced by the project, is the 20th edition of the annual update, which started in 2006.

Researchers from the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich (LMU) and more than 90 other institutions around the world contributed to the report.

The GCB 2025 shows that carbon emissions are at an all-time high. Curbing global warming to under 1.5 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels – as per the Paris Agreement necessitates – will now be “virtually impossible”.

“With CO2 emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible,” said Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.

However, a reduction in deforestation and wildfires in South America played a role in reducing net land use emissions. Per the new report, the remaining carbon budget allowance is 170 billion tonnes of CO2 to limit warming to 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels. However, at current levels of carbon emissions, this will be exhausted in four years.

“The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C, 170 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, will be gone before 2030 at current emission rate. We estimate that climate change is now reducing the combined land and ocean sinks – a clear signal from Planet Earth that we need to dramatically reduce emissions,” Friedlingstein said in a statement.

The latter is a finding from a linked study, published by the team on November 12 in the journal Nature. It finds that the natural land sink is “substantially smaller” than previously estimated. The ocean sink, meanwhile, is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with new evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations, the study noted. The earth’s oceans are known to be important sinks that absorb and sequester carbon in the atmosphere.

The team also found that climate change reduces the efficiency of both sinks, especially the land sink. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation turn Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO2 sinks to sources, the study added. 

India’s emissions growing, but slower than before

In 2024, India was the third-highest absolute contributor to the total global fossil fuel emissions at 8%, whereas China contributed 32% and the US, 13%.

While India’s emissions are growing at a slower rate, per the report, fossil fuel emissions grew in India from 2005 to 2014 by 6.4%, and from 2015 to 2024 by 3.6%. 

Emissions in India are expected to rise by around 1.4% (that’s 3.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year) in India this year, lower when compared to 2024 levels.

As per an AFP report, an early monsoon and strong renewables growth helped drive a smaller rise in India than in recent years.

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