Despite Rise in Renewables, Coal Will Be India’s Mainstay For Some More Years
New Delhi: Despite a decrease in coal consumption and increase in renewable energy across the world, coal will still be India’s mainstay for some more years, as per the latest BP Energy Outlook report. India’s power sector emissions will rise by 40% by 2035; by 2050 India will account for 12% of the global energy demands, as per the report.
The BP Energy Outlook is an annual report published by multinational oil major BP (previously British Petroleum), on the status of energy and linked aspects across the world. This year’s Energy Outlook analysed trends in energy production, energy efficiency, demands, carbon emissions, and more, for two ‘scenarios’: what the world and its energy requirements would be based on the existing trajectory of growth (called the ‘Current Trajectory’ scenario) and the ideal growth that will keep the global temperature rise to below 2° Celsius (called the ‘Below 2° scenario).
Lesser coal dependence globally
According to the Outlook, at the current trajectory, the world’s emissions will remain roughly stable at around their current levels throughout the rest of this decade, and then gradually decline over the 2030s and 2040s. Emissions will fall by around a quarter from their 2023 levels by 2050, per the report.
Coal is all set to lose importance in the global energy system. China’s lesser coal consumption alone would be responsible for around 85% of the reduction in global coal production by 2050 in the ‘Current Trajectory’ scenario, per the report. But India’s share of coal in its energy mix will be more than 40% in 2050.
“This growth is underpinned by the role of coal in supporting the rapid growth of Indian power generation and, to a lesser extent, industrial output,” says the report.
By 2050, China will be producing less coal than before: while it accounted for over 50% of global coal production in 2023, this will drop to around 30%. India and other emerging Asian nations will overtake China as the major global centres of coal production.
Oil will continue to play a major role in the global economy, per the report. Under the ‘Current Trajectory’, oil consumption will continue to grow over the rest of the decade before reaching current levels again by 2035.
“Demand is supported by increasing use in India and other emerging Asian countries as their economies continue to grow rapidly, partially offset by continuing declines in developed markets,” the report adds.
Countries will turn to nuclear power generation to meet the increasing demand for more stable, low carbon electricity. New nuclear capacities in India too will be part of this. The Outlook also highlighted how the AI-spurred need for increasing numbers of data centres is creating a huge energy demand.
Renewables won’t meet all of India’s power demand
By 2035 as wind and solar generation replace coal power, emissions from the global power sector will fall despite rising electricity demand, per the report. Power demand in both India and China will increase strongly by 2035 under the ‘Current Trajectory’. And India’s carbon intensity will decline as renewables contribute to the power mix, per the report.
However, this will still not be able to meet India’s 85% growth in power demand – which will account for 12% of the global power demands. As a result, Indian power sector emissions rise [sic] by 600MtCO2, or around 40%, the report read.
“India’s economy grows at a rate of 5% per year in 2023-2050, double the rate of growth of the global economy. The primary energy consumption grows strongly and by 2050, India will account for 12% of the world’s demand, up from 7% in 2023,” Financial Express quoted BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale as saying at New Delhi.
With electrification happening at a rapid pace, the demand for electricity too will rise – especially in emerging economies. Per the report, global electricity demand will grow rapidly over the coming decade under the ‘Current Trajectory’ scenario, rising to over 40,000TWh by 2035. This is more than 40% above 2023 levels.
China’s electricity demand which rises by around 5,000TWh between 2023 and 2035 alone will account for 40% of the global increase in generation. India too would see a huge rise in power demand: more than 1,500TWh, which is an increase of around 85% relative to 2023 levels.
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