El Niño to Cause Surge in Power Demand in India, But Also Decrease Wind and Hydro Power Generation
New Delhi: The upcoming El Niño will be a double whammy for India, according to a new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). India is likely to witness an increase in power demand due to the warmer temperatures associated with the weather phenomenon, and a decrease in rainfall and winds could cause a dip in wind and hydro power generation in the country.
Using model simulations, researchers at CREA analysed the impact of the predicted transition from the La Niña (a period of cooler temperatures and more rainfall that was in effect over India for a while) to the El Niño (a period usually associated with hotter temperatures and lesser rainfall) on the power sector in 110 countries from July 2026 to June 2027.
India’s two challenges
Per the analysis, the transition from La Nina to El Nino in 2026-27 will push up fossil fuel consumption across 110 countries, with the increased fossil fuel demand totalling approximately 80 terawatt-hours (TWh) from July 2026 to June 2027.
India will be the most affected:
“The countries at greatest risk are those relying heavily on hydropower or facing large temperature-driven demand increases: India (+17.7 TWh), Vietnam (+8.0 TWh), South Africa (+7.7 TWh), Chile (+5.0 TWh), and Mexico (+4.7 TWh),” the analysis, accessed by The Wire, read.
Per the analysis, India will experience two challenges.
One is that the warmer temperatures brought on by the El Niño will cause a surge in power demand. As a result, the additional cooling demand could amount to as much as 9.9 terawatt-hours (TWh) within a year, which is the equivalent of a quarter of Delhi's annual electricity use, per the analysis.
Another is that the El Niño will bring lower rainfall and falling winds. This will affect both hydro power generation and wind power generation. India will have to supplement these losses with 4.9 TWh of fossil fuel generation (to compensate for lower wind power generation) and 2.9 TWh for hydroelectric power.
Put together, India will have to use fossil fuels to generate 17.7 TWh of power within a year. Under a more severe El Niño scenario, fossil fuel generation could rise by nearly 24 TWh.
A monkey drinks water to find relief from the heat, in New Delhi, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Photo: PTI/Kamal Kishore.
Impacts on states will vary
The impacts across states, however, are set to vary.
Per the CREA analysis, Karnataka will experience the largest increase in fossil generation under the central scenario, driven primarily by higher cooling demand rather than renewable generation losses. This trend will hold out Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh too, where warmer temperatures will cause more power demands for cooling.
Meanwhile in Andhra Pradesh a reduction in hydropower generation is expected to increase fossil generation. This will likely be due to lower reservoir inflows caused by weaker monsoon conditions, with the El Niño bringing in lower monsoonal rainfall.
Gujarat, which relies greatly on wind generation for its power needs, will have to turn to fossil fuel-based power because of the lower wind outputs that the El Niño will cause.
However, not all states will experience negative impacts. Per the CREA analysis, several northeastern states could show a modest increase in hydropower generation, leading to small reductions in fossil fuel-based power needs.
Solar holds hope
In such scenarios, solar power generation could be the saving grace for India, according to the analysis. It may be already at work: higher solar generation kept coal-fired thermal power generation from January to May this year below January-May 2024 levels, despite record power demand in 2026. But battery storage is still a big concern.
“India has just endured a deadly heatwave and one of its hottest summers on record, pushing power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. India must stay on track for its target of 500 GW of non-fossil power by 2030 but also move much faster on batteries and grid upgrades, so that clean energy can meet future surges in power demand reliably and affordably,” said Nandikesh Sivalingam, Director, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), in a statement.
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