Srinagar: An official report has raised difficult questions about the feasibility of four upcoming hydropower projects in the Kishtwar region of Jammu, warning that a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event in their vicinity could have catastrophic consequences downstream.

The new report has been published by the District Disaster Management Authority of Kishtwar, which was headed in 2024 by the deputy commissioner Rajesh Kumar Shavan.

The report has come into public domain at a time when Jammu and Kashmir is witnessing unprecedented weather in the form of record breaking rains and flash floods triggered by suspected cloudbursts that has left about 200 civilians and some paramilitary troopers dead in Jammu region since August 14.

A GLOF is a destructive flood triggered by sudden bursting of a glacial lake dammed by ice or moraine debris in the higher reaches of mountainous regions which give way due to earthquake, rapid melting of glaciers or major rockslides.

Jammu and Kashmir is a seismically active region in Seismic Zones IV and V. Climate scientists and geologists have long warned that the hydropower projects in Kishtwar, some of which are still undergoing construction on the Chenab river, could trigger a massive disaster.

According to the Glacial Lake Atlas of Indian Himalayan River Basins published in March 2023, there are 197 glacial lakes, big and small, in Kishtwar district which make up 36.08 percent of all glacial lakes in the Union Territory.

'Rising water levels or potential dam breaches could increase downstream flood risk'

The report has said that Patla Pani lake and an unnamed lake in Chenab basin faced “moderate" risk of GLOF while Mundiksar and Hangusar lakes were the most vulnerable in the "high risk” category that could trigger catastrophic events downstream.

The report has warned that Pakal Dul (1000 MW), Kiru (624 MW), Kwar (540 MW) and Dangduru which are undergoing construction faced high risk from GLOF events.

“Rising water levels or potential dam breaches could threaten project infrastructure, disrupt operations, and increase downstream flood risk. In addition, GLOFs threaten the district’s road network and key access routes, which are essential for transportation and evacuation, potentially isolating communities during crises,” the report warns.

Senior geologist and researcher R.K. Ganjoo said that the ecological imbalances created by large scale construction of hydropower projects in Chenab valley in the Himalayan ecosystem could trigger more natural disasters.

“About two decades ago I submitted a proposal to the government for the establishment of the Institute of Himalayan Glaciology with multiple objectives including documentation and scientific monitoring of glacial lakes in J&K. Unfortunately, the concerned department did not realise the significance and necessity of the institute,” Ganjoo, a former professor of geology at the University of Jammu, told The Wire.

The four, run of the river projects mentioned in the report are being built at a cumulative cost of around Rs. 22,000 crore deep in the eco-fragile Himalayan region of Kishtwar by the National Hydroelectric Power Company and its joint venture Chenab Valley Power Projects Limited which has the Union government as the majority shareholder.

India has put the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan in abeyance in the aftermath of the four day military conflict with Pakistan and the construction of at least three out of four projects mentioned in the study has been recently fast-tracked, as per reports.

According to an estimate in April this year by Central Electricity Authority, Pakal Dul and Kiru projects are likely to be commissioned by September 2026 while Kwar is scheduled to be commissioned by December 2027.

In case of a GLOF event, the report warns that dozens of villages in Padder, Dacchan, Machail, Marwah-Warwan and Kishtwar tehsils with a cumulative population of thousands would be the worst-hit that would put human lives, public infrastructure like roads, schools and hospitals, agriculture land and religious places at grave risk.

Besides devastating human habitations, a GLOF event could also impact the Kishtwar High Altitude National Park where “ecosystem disruption, habitat loss, and biodiversity threats are potential outcomes. Contamination of local water sources due to flood waters could further impact public health and ecological balance,” the report warns.

Without specifying figures, the report says that the unstable moraine dams which have formed hundreds of alpine lakes in Jammu and Kashmir’s higher reaches were losing stability and expanding, “Lakes such as Mundiksar Lake and Hangu Lake (in Kishtwar), both classified as high-risk, are prime examples of expanding lakes in this region. This expansion heightens the potential for catastrophic dam failure”.

The Wire has previously reported on an official study that Jammu and Kashmir has 67 ‘potentially dangerous’ alpine lakes, 11 of which are ‘high-risk’ and require immediate intervention to mitigate the catastrophic GLOF-like events that could impact hundreds of thousands of people living downstream.

The report titled ‘Management of Glacial Lakes Outburst Flood (GLOF)2024-25’, adds: “Changes in the water balance of these glacial lakes are continuously monitored, but sudden shifts in water volume due to rapid melting or lake outbursts could lead to devastating floods”.

The 23-page report urges the government to formulate “comprehensive flood management and preventative strategies” with a “multi-layered mitigation strategy” to protect people, infrastructure and natural resources from the impacts of GLOFs.

The report, which was prepared on 28 November last year, calls on the Central Water Commission (CWC) and other agencies to track Jammu and Kashmir’s alpine lakes in real time with Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites and install automated sensors at these lakes to monitor water levels and dam conditions.

The CWC monitors 907 water bodies and glacial lakes in the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra basins of which 15 glacial lakes and 16 water bodies fall in the Indus basin in J&K.

The Sentinel satellites are part of the European Space Agency’s Copernicus program which provide comprehensive data on land and oceans with detailed mapping of land features and high-resolution pictures.

India participates in the program through a data-sharing agreement signed with the European Union in 2018.

“Establishment of Early Warning Systems (EWS) should include collaboration with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) to predict weather conditions that could trigger GLOFs. These systems will enable authorities to issue timely alerts to vulnerable communities and ensure evacuation measures are in place,” the report proposes.

'Afforestation will reduce the threat of landslides and floods'

The report calls for geotechnical studies to “assess dam stability and determine the most effective reinforcement methods” and immediate intervention in cases of alpine lakes that pose imminent threat “to reduce the pressure on moraine dams …. by creating artificial channels or tunnels to release excess water in a controlled manner”.

“Given the region’s vulnerability, integrating flood-resistant construction practices into infrastructure development particularly in areas surrounding key projects is crucial. Additionally, promoting ecosystem restoration efforts, such as Afforestation, will help stabilise the mountainous slopes and reduce the threat of landslides and floods,” the report says.

More than 100 people, mostly Hindu pilgrims on the way to Mata Machail pilgrimage in Padder area, were killed when a devastating flood swept through Kishtwar’s Chisoti village on August 14. The bodies of some of the victims are yet to be recovered.

Last week, a catastrophic landslide on the route to Mata Vaishno Devi shrine in Jammu’s Reasi district killed more than 32 people while dozens were injured. The pilgrimage, which is undertaken by hundreds of thousands every year, remains suspended due to incessant rains.

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