Maharashtra and New Delhi: India is turning to renewable energy to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. This transition is considered necessary to reduce the amount of carbon emitted into the atmosphere, which exacerbates climate change. However, even renewable energy production is expected to be impacted by the already changing climate.
A study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune found that changes in temperature, wind patterns, and rainfall can impact the productivity of solar and wind plants.
Energy from solar and wind are key to India’s plan to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels for its energy needs. The Union government aims for 50% of energy to be produced by non-fossil fuels by 2030, and looks to increase it to 100% by 2070. These plans will have to consider how climate change will impact the efficiency of wind and solar energy, the IITM study found.
“In the next five decades, there is a likelihood of solar radiation getting affected,” said P. Mukhopadhyay, a scientist at IITM, Pune. “And to some extent by the wind as well.”
Talking about the method of analysis and how they reached this conclusion, Mukhopadhyay said, “Whatever analysis has been done is mostly based on statistics. You get a time series of data. You get, say, 50 years of data, and then we apply all the necessary advanced statistics. Trend analysis, significance tests, and so on.”
Mukhopadhyay explained that solar radiation can be affected by factors such as wind speeds and cloud cover. According to him, being able to predict these factors through weather forecasts will allow the energy industry to estimate how much energy they will be able to generate more accurately. “This forecast decides what will be the energy generation in the coming 24 hours and so on,” he said, “IITM will try to improve this weather prediction more and more so that the uncertainty that is there in weather prediction for the wind and solar sector will be reduced.”
The study predicts that seasonal and annual wind speed is likely to decrease over North India and increase across South India. On the other hand, solar radiation is estimated to decrease over the next 50 years during all seasons.
Solar radiance projected to decrease across India
The study by IITM Pune used climate models such as Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 to understand climate projections for various parts of the country over five decades. These models are also used by the United Nations to predict the different ways in which climate change may impact the planet in the future. The IITM study used these models to predict climate change’s potential impact on renewable energy.
The researchers have examined historical simulation data spanning the past 55 years to forecast the performance of renewable energy sources over the following 55 years.
“Solar radiance is likely to decrease across most solar farming regions in India throughout all seasons. It also indicates that the southern and northwest regions may experience higher wind speeds during winter and monsoon months, when wind potential is typically at its peak,” said Mukhopadhyay.
Further, the research highlights notable changes in annual solar radiance, with decreases expected in the foothills of the Himalayas and central India.
Given the projected decrease in future wind and solar potential, Mukhopadhyay advocated for an increased investment in research and development of solar and wind energy technologies. He emphasised the necessity for an expanded and more efficient network of wind and solar farms to boost renewable energy production.
Moreover, the study underscores the importance of maintaining real-time data on changing climate conditions and their impact on energy systems to inform decision-making. This research holds significance for solar and wind energy developers and investors, particularly as the Indian government aims to increase its renewable energy share and achieve a net-zero target by 2070, as outlined in its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The Maharashtra model
Different states are contributing to this goal in different ways. About 95% of India’s installed wind power capacity is located in six states — Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu.
Notably, solar power projects are also being established all over the country. One of the top performing states in terms of utilisation of solar energy is Maharashtra. The state has an installed solar capacity of over 1,800 MW and a rooftop solar capacity of close to 230 MW. Maharashtra has the fourth highest rooftop solar power generation capacity in the country.
Maharashtra has seen a major increase in solar power capacity in recent years, primarily through an increasing number of solar parks, rooftop installations and solar energy regulations that support the use of solar technology by both residential and commercial consumers.
In order to better understand the impact of climate change on people who partially or completely rely on solar and wind installations for their livelihood, Maharashtra presents a fairer picture owing to its mass adoption of solar and wind projects in recent years.
Chimneys and cooling towers in Maharashtra add to pollution and climate change with CO2 emissions. Photo: Suhail Bhat
The state has achieved considerable success in harnessing clean and sustainable energy sources in 2022-2023. With 512.83 MW of wind power, 4722.90 MW of solar power, 2640.69 MW of biofuels, and 381.08 MW of small hydro capacity, the state now ranks among the top states in terms of installed renewable energy capacity totalling 13.14 GW.
The Climate Group (CG) is an international non-profit that works on climate action through global campaigns like RE 100, which motivates corporations to undertake RE100 commitments. Under RE100, several corporations have committed a 100% shift to renewable electricity by 2030.
“Extreme weather or climate change events such as cyclones impact solar plants. They will impact power distribution. Once a cyclone impacts a solar plant or power distribution, the on-grid solar plants, which is 80% of the market, will not be able to evacuate their power. So that is the one major challenge,” said Saswat Sourav Panda, CG’s programme manager, while talking about the impact of climate change on sources of renewable energy.
“Also, because of the high heat conditions, with more heat the output of the solar plants decreases. For example, if any year is hotter than average, there will be a larger dip in the output of solar plants. This is because solar panels typically generate electricity more efficiently at cooler temperatures,” Panda added. “Along with that heat, another climate problem that happens is the formation of clouds. When there is excess accumulation of clouds, spikes will be there. Highs and lows in power generation will happen. Excessive highs and lows in solar plants or wind plants will create a lot of fluctuations in the power output, which will definitely impact the grid stability.”
He further underlined that these are some “technical problems” that are bound to happen because of climate change. “Due to pollution, how will solar plants get affected? Because additional dust is there, to match the generation we have to clean it. That means we are consuming more water.”
Impact on agriculture
These effects of climate change on renewable energy are expected to be felt across various sectors. Agriculture is predicted to be adversely affected too.
Maharashtra introduced a scheme in June 2017 to install solar projects near agriculture-dominated sub-stations that resulted in higher dependency of farmers on solar panels or other such projects.
The Mukhyamantri Saur Krushi Vahini Yojana was introduced in June 2017, wherein decentralised solar projects of capacity 2-10 MW were installed within a 5-km radius of agriculture-dominated sub-stations.
The scheme was later reframed as Mukhymantri Saur Krushi Vahini Yojana 2.0 (MSKVY 2.0), with the target of 30% feeder solarisation by 2025 through the implementation of 7,000 MW decentralised solar projects in fast-track mode, thus giving day-time electricity supply to farmers.
During this reporter’s visit to Satara village in Maharashtra, local farmers spoke about the challenges that they have faced before and after installing solar panels. Although renewable energy has made their life better, it has also added new problems.
For instance, dust gather in solar panels due to pollution. So regular cleaning is essential to keep them working for which more water is required.
Arvind Dilkar, from Satara Village, Maharashtra wipes the dirt off solar panels since the performance of the panels decrease due to heavy coating of dirt. Photo: Suhail Bhat
“Where we live, everyone’s livelihood depends on farming,” said Savitra, a farmer based in Maharashtra’s Satara district. “There are no employment opportunities here, everyone has to go to cities. Rainfall is erratic. There are a lot of water problems.”
Savitra and her husband had saved some money to build a well for water. However, the expenses of diesel to run the generator would have drained them financially. So they have turned to solar.
“With no access to electricity, our farming activities were limited to only till March,” Savitra said, “However, since we installed solar panels, we can now farm all year–round.” She got her solar panel installed through Agri Vijay under the EMI financing scheme, a social enterprise that supplies renewable energy products to farmers and rural households.
With a green energy target of 21,100 megawatts by 2020, Maharashtra has set up a transmission corridor to supply green power. In 2017, the decision to provide 12-hour power supply to farmers during the daytime was taken.
Risk versus reward
Experts argue that Maharashtra’s policy to set up an alternate green energy corridor puts its farmers at risk if the green energy solution doesn’t go as planned.
“Maharashtra is a good example because they have gone with the policy of literally setting up an alternate green energy corridor that is completely powered by solar or wind and using that corridor to assure farmers of a certain amount of solar power in the daytime. Now, if this doesn’t go as planned, then obviously farmers are the ones who will be most affected,” said Prasanna Singh, editor at Saur Energy International.
The introduction of renewable energy has not only improved the lives of farmers but others too. The energy produced from the alternate sources plays a crucial role in supporting education, hospitals, and day-to-day amenities in rural areas.
“In the rural areas that we’ve worked in, thousands of students who were unable to study have benefited [due to solar]. Untimely deaths of women have been prevented, because solar installations in hospitals ensure that emergency machinery stays operational during power outages. Household chores have become easier for everyone. Thousands of farmers, women, and children have experienced transformation in their lives,” said Sharmila Ghosh, founder of Green Energy Foundation on the positive changes brought in by renewable energy.
Ghosh emphasised on the need to include renewable energy sources into daily living as a whole. She has recommended that the government should make solar panel installation a requirement for homeowners in order to encourage Indians to set aside money specifically for solar energy and to accelerate the nation’s transition to green energy. She does, however, support logical and rational exceptions in this case.
Ghosh said, “Every human, every woman, every child has to see themselves as an ambassador of climate. Schools ought to have a section dedicated to teaching students about leading energy-efficient and climate-friendly lives. My cycle is solar powered. We ought to drive an electric vehicle. All we need to do is put in deliberate efforts such as these.”
With India’s increasing dependence on wind and solar for its energy needs, the effects of climate change can’t be ignored. The IITM’s findings suggest that there might be ways to reduce the impacts of a changing climate on these sources of energy. According to Mukhopadhyay, we can invest in research and development to produce high-efficiency solar cells. Even if solar radiation decreases by 5%, these high-efficiency solar cells can generate the equivalent unit of power. He has also suggested that the hub height of windmills can be increased so that even if wind intensity decreases significantly, the windmills can still generate the equivalent amount of energy.
It is noteworthy that studies like the one conducted by Mukhopadhyay give us an early warning to be able to make changes that will prepare us for the future.
This story was developed and produced under an arrangement with Internews’ Earth Journalism Network.
Suhail Bhat is a freelance journalist based in New Delhi, reporting on gender, environment, and minorities in India.
